These are all predictions with a healthy dose of who I am rooting for. If you don't want bias, don't read my diary.
SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION: David García for so many reasons, not least because his opponent substitutes her lack of knowledge for what the office does with mildly lefty platitudes. We can do better.
CONGRESS DISTRICT 7: Ruben Gallego has the inside track, the edge, the big mo in this one. I'm still confused by friends that are willing to walk on broken glass for Mary Rose Wilcox as some sort of dyed in the wool progressive when they all would have been hard pressed to make that case a year ago.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 3: The fight between Olivia Cajero-Bedford and Sal Baldenegro Jr. has served as a proxy fight of sorts between Raúl Grijalva and a confederation of long time Grijalva detractors and a group of younger Hispanic activists. The main crew supporting Baldenegro dislikes Grijalva's hold on politics on Tucson's West and South sides, and believes that Grijalva is too accommodating on immigration issues.
Yes, there are people that believe this. The group is sometimes derisively referred to as "The Xicano Taliban" by Grijalva supporters.
Cajero-Bedford and Baldenegro both have deep ties in Tucson politics. Both of Cajero-Bedford's parents, Nayo and Carmen, served in the state legislature (Nayo was also a barber for Mo and Stewart Udall, as well as Gov. Raúl Castro). Baldenegro's father was very active in the first burst of Chicano activism in Tucson in the early 1970's.
Grijalva and Sal Sr. fought those fights together, but had a falling out shortly before the start of Grijalva's first run for congress. As such, Cajero-Bedford has gotten Grijalva's endorsement.
Baldenegro would be a stronger legislator than Cajero-Bedford, who has been part of a faction of the Democratic caucus that has been more interested in making friends than legislation. Still, I wonder if the folks he runs with will drag him into fights that would keep him from being as effective as he could be.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 7: I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of Navajo politics, but I'm not all that happy with Carlyle Begay. Jamescita Peshlakai has been an able member of the house and would be a fine replacement.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 19: This is one of a couple of races where a pro-choice Democrat is pitted against one that isn't. Pro-choice groups have weighed in behind nuclear engineer Angela Cotera. Her opponent, incumbent house member Lupe Contreras, is backed by Mario Diaz's Friends of Arizona PAC. Diaz's group backs a raft of go-along-get-along Democrats and Contreras seems to fit that mold (a 39% rating from the Goldwater Institute, for example).
The campaign seems a bit low wattage so far. Cotera has outraised Contreras with about $22,000, which is still less than she would have gotten had she run clean.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 27: Aaron Marquez all the way. The guy has the background to be not only a strong leader in the legislature, but a future leader in higher office.
His opponent, incumbent Catherine Miranda, on the other hand is part of the problem. If you ever want to know why Hispanic politics in Arizona are always written about with terms like "sleeping giant" or "silent minority," look to Miranda and her husband Ben as reasons one and two.
They are part of a politics that is perfectly happy with being elected to office but doing little afterward. This seat is not one earned from the people but a family entitlement. The kiss-the-ring-but-don't-count-on-me-later political style from too many of the Valley Hispanic Establishment keeps la communidad inactive and is a big part of why our state is in this mess.
A side note: years ago I had a call from Ben Miranda. I would have classified it as bullying, but it was so ridiculous that I just laughed about it with my friends.
Marquez is interested in being engaged and growing the electorate. If you are a Democrat anywhere in the state, that should excite you.
And by the way, Miranda also cashed a check from Diaz's group. You need another reason to pray for her to lose?
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 29: Yep, another by-God actual liberal running against an anti-choice candidate supported by Diaz's dark money group. Who do you think I'm supporting?
House member Martin Quezada has been one of the most articulate voices in the legislature against the fear mongering from our state's leaders. His opponent is a virtual cypher in the legislature. We don't need another one of those.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 4: Charlene Fernandez, one time Yuma office director for Raúl Grijalva, jumped into the race late, but has attracted a lot of support owing to the fact that her José Suarez, another of the candidates vying for the two slots up this year, has turned out to be far to the right on social issues. That may play well in the Yuma portions of the district, but the district includes the far southwest sides of Phoenix and Tucson, as well as the Tohono O'Odham nation.
Despite starting late, Fernandez, a one time vice-chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, put together a strong campaign. She's earned endorsements of labor, national groups like Progressive Majority and both Raúl Grijalva and Ed Pastor. It's hard to see how Suarez, a novice candidate with little organization outside of Yuma County, can mount much of a campaign in this sprawling district. Game, set, match Fernandez.
By the way, Lisa Otondo, a one time flight attendant who was spurred into politics after the loss of several friends on 9/11, should have no trouble getting renominated for the other slot.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 7: I'll give one seat to Albert Hale. As for the other one, your guess is as good as mine.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 24: Lela Alston deserves renomination for as long as she wants it. She's been a stalwart advocate of education in our state for three decades.
As for the other seat, I give it to Ken Clark. Clark's previous legislative career was short and I know he rubs some people the wrong way, but he's one of the smartest guys running. Now, if only he'd quit reminding people about that.
In the running with Clark for the silver medal (remember, two get nominated and elected) is Richard Bauer. Bauer is also supported by Diaz's dark money organization, Friends of Arizona, which makes me dubious of what sort of legislator he'll be. Bauer has also benefited from attacks against Clark that are rumored to be from APS over his support of solar energy. That doesn't make me any more confident of Bauer.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 27: There are four candidates on the ballot plus a write in. Rebecca Rios is the only candidate supported by Mario Diaz that seems worth voting for. Even a stuck clock, right?
Likely vying for that second spot is ASU professor Reginald Bolding, education activist Marcelino Quiñonez and Rep. Norma Muñoz, the appointee that took the seat when Ruben Gallego abandoned it for his congressional run.
Remember kids, an appointee hasn't been tested before. I'd give it to Quiñonez, who is selling himself as a fresh face (one that's been on Time magazine's cover), with Muñoz running a close third.
STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 28: Planned Parenthood has endorsed three out of the four candidates in this race. Steve Chapman got left out, but I don't know if it is a matter of him not filling out the questionnaire or over his views. He's been emphasizing his work as a school board member.
The three other candidates are impressive. Richard Andrade is an Air Force veteran and a union member (SMART local 359). Diane Garcia worked for DES for a number of years with the developmentally disabled. Ceci Velazquez has a wonderful story to tell as a West Valley native pulling herself up.
Given my druthers, and I don't know how to read this one, I'd like to see Andrade and Garcia.