Man the battle stations, Democrats! Control over the Senate is at stake and the latest New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of 100,000 respondents reported by
Nate Cohn, of the
New York Times suggests the
Republicans Maintain Edge in Senate Races, Poll Finds.
Reading Expat's call to arms in Navajo's Connect, Act, Unite Diary got me fired enough to check out Navajo's original post which I also endorse.
The Republicans lead by at least four percentage points in enough races to finish with 50 seats — just one short of the 51 seats they need to overcome Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote and take the Senate. The Republicans’ likely gains include six seats currently held by the Democrats: in South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana and Alaska. If those leads hold up, Republicans have four opportunities to capture the 51st seat they need in Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas.
Nate Cohn does give us an outside chance of retaining control questioning the common presumptions of GOP gains in Colorado and Iowa.
Here's the main overview of their data.
Ky. Grimes 41% McConnell 47% Likely R
La. Cassidy 32% Landrieu 36%
La. (runoff*) Landrieu 41% Cassidy 47% Lean R
Alaska Begich 42% Sullivan 48% Lean R
Ark. Pryor 41% Cotton 45% Lean R
Ga. Nunn 43% Perdue 47% Lean R
Kan. Roberts 40% Orman 40% Tossup
Iowa Ernst 43% Braley 44% Tossup
N.C. Tillis 45% Hagan 46% Lean D
Colo. Gardner 45% Udall 48% Tossup
Mich. Land 41% Peters 46% Likely D
Minn. McFadden 42% Franken 49% Solid D
N.H. Brown 41% Shaheen 48% Likely D
Source: YouGov (CBS/New York Times 2014 Election Panel, conducted September 20 to October 1)
Last I heard I don't believe independent Orman has indicated which party he will caucus with if he is the deciding vote, otherwise I think he intends to caucus with the winning party.
With so many close races and so few persuadable voters, turnout will be pivotal in many contests, including in Georgia. The Democrats have invested millions more than Republicans in building a strong turnout operation, and the effects of that effort are already evident in the YouGov data. More voters have been contacted by Democratic than Republican campaigns in every state but Kansas and Kentucky, where Republican senators fought competitive primaries. Whether the Democratic turnout machine can turn its advantage in voter contacts into additional votes on Election Day might well determine Senate control.
It might all come down to Braley in Iowa.
It's time to wake up and act fellow Democrats.
Can you imagine how terrible it will be if the Republicans gain control of both the House and the Senate?
Have you done everything you possible can to help our candidates win in the Senate and all the other races? Now is our moment of truth.
6:37 PM PT: Dang, I just realized I left out the most important response in the poll - "Not yet, but now I'm fired up and ready to go!"
Sheesh, this blows the whole point of the post.
But we can't change polls once they are posted, so let make choice 1, "Yes, and I will do even more!" a double meaning response.
What if we lose by one vote, that would have been inspired by someone who read this current broken poll and decides "there's no place for me here so I'm staying home?"
I'll spend the rest of my life hanging by head to low my droopy long ears will be like dust mops. Please, don't let this happen. Get out and vote, contribute, and GOTV to save the HoundDog from having to resign in shame.
7:44 PM PT: Good news from the latest Marist poll.
http://www.politico.com/...
An NBC/Marist poll of likely voters unveiled on “Meet the Press” showed Kansas GOP Sen. Pat Roberts down double digits, North Carolina Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan with a 4-point lead and a neck-and-neck race in Iowa.
The Kansas numbers are the most significant. Independent Greg Orman leads Roberts by 10 points, 48 to 38, in what until recently was seen as a safe Republican hold. The lead for Orman, who won’t say which party he’ll caucus with, comes despite an onslaught of ads from the right that aim to tie him to President Barack Obama.
A GOP loss in Kansas would require seven pickups elsewhere for the party to seize the Senate.
The Iowa results had Republican Joni Ernst with 46 percent to Democrat Bruce Braley’s 44 percent, within the 3.5-percentage-point margin of error. Last weekend, the Des Moines Register poll showed Ernst up 6 points, so this latest survey will aid Democratic efforts to argue that the race to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Harkin remains a true tossup and has not begun to drift away.