Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jason Carter, with Rep. John Lewis
Public Policy Polling returns to the Peach State for the first time since July, and they find
small but steady leads for Republicans in the Senate and gubernatorial races.
In the Senate contest, Republican David Perdue leads Democrat Michelle Nunn 45-43, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford at 8. Most recent polls have found a similar margin. When Swafford's supporters are asked to pick between the two major candidates Perdue's edge increases slightly to 48-45. The undecideds report voting for Obama and Romney in roughly equal numbers, so it's unlikely that they can dramatically shift the race.
Nunn is slightly more popular than Perdue, posting a 41-42 favorable rating compared to Perdue's 39-43. But with Obama's approval rating at 41-54 here, Perdue doesn't necessarily need to be beloved to win. Note that this poll was conducted over the weekend just after Perdue's comments embracing outsourcing became public. Nunn's campaign has just started to hammer Perdue on outsourcing, so most persuadable voters may not have heard about the story yet.
According to PPP, the GOP seems better positioned in the gubernatorial contest. Republican incumbent Nathan Deal leads Democrat Jason Carter 46-41, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt taking 4. This is a bit better for Deal than most polls have found recently, but not dramatically different. However, this is one of only a few polls showing Carter doing worse than Nunn. When Hunt's supporters are asked to choose between Perdue and Carter, Perdue's lead turns to 50-45. Neither candidate is super popular: Deal's approval rating is 43-42 while Carter's favorable rating is 39-36. The undecideds here are a bit more Democratic-leaning than in the Senate contest, but there don't appear to be enough of them to give Carter the lead on their own.
As we've noted before, both Democrats have a tough task. In Georgia if no candidate takes more than 50 percent in November, the top-two contenders advance to a runoff. Most polling in both races shows the Libertarians taking enough support to force a runoff. Frustratingly, the gubernatorial runoff would be in December while the Senate race would be in January. PPP did ask voters if they would show up for the runoffs: 87 percent said they would definitely vote in the December contest and 85 percent they would definitely vote in January.
Of course, it's no secret that voters are often very poor at predicting their own future behavior. Democratic turnout has tended to disproportionately drop for irregularly scheduled elections and getting Democratic voters to turn out in two different months may be difficult. If Carter loses in December, it could be even tougher to get dispirited Democrats to show up for Nunn in January. It is possible for either or both Democrats to win a runoff if it comes down to it, but their best bet is to win outright in November and unfortunately that's not happening right now.
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