DailyKos Elections:
We calculate Nunn's odds of winning outright as 27 percent, and Perdue's odds as 13 percent. (That's thanks to Nunn having taken a small lead in our trendlines, after leading the two most recent polls of the race, from SurveyUSA and GAPundit.com.)
So Nunn's overall chances of victory are at 67.5%, if you want to assume no runoff drop-off. Edit: and assume equal allocation of Libertarians.
27 / (27+13) = 67.5
67.5*.4 = 27% (outright Nunn victory)
67.5*.6 = 40.5% (runoff w/ Nunn victory)
But according to DailyKos Elections "our model allows for a Nunn win only in November; any trip to a runoff counts as a loss".
What the %^&*
If we turnout, we are favorites. Couldn't the DailyKos Elections staff make this a bit more clear--that we can be considered 68% favorites if turnout holds steady--instead of giving Nunn a zero percent chance in the runoff!? Seriously now.
The DKE narrative can actually create a social expectation of reduced turnout in a runoff impacting GOTV, individual voting decisions, etc., etc., thereby becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's not just that they're wrong, which they are:
Democrats are batting zero in runoffs, at least at the statewide level.
All two runoffs were in Presidential years.
Are more motivated midterm voters really going to drop-out of a runoff, when the runoff involves the top-of-the-ticket candidate? Of course there would be drop-off, if there's a statewide runoff for dogcatcher or "just" Insurance Commissioner, but for Governor and Senator (?), it's a stretch to assume there will be drop-off, especially with no valid historical comparison.
The whole argument by DKE regards a Senate runoff in 2008 and one in 1992, Presidential years. The Democratic candidate even received a higher percentage of the vote in the 1992 runoff than in the general, in stark contrast to how DKE portrays that runoff:
Even more important, though, was the now-mostly-forgotten 1992 Senate election, where Democratic incumbent Wyche Fowler finished first in November, but then lost the runoff to GOPer Paul Coverdell.
Um, he almost won and got a higher percentage of the vote. And yet, Nunn has a zero percent chance in a runoff! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Seriously, now. Justify yourselves.
What's the difference between your projected Democratic drop-off and Republican drop-off in a runoff?
Further, does the projected drop-off differ between the statewide runoff (after Thanksgiving) and the US Senate runoff (in Jan)? FYI, there would be far fewer early voting days for the statewide race.
For the sake of argument, let's ignore the heightened interest in Nunn's election if the 50th Senate seat is at stake since that is a hypothetical entwined in a ball of hypotheticals, BUT I think a focus on judicial appointments is a viable strategy*.
I want to briefly address Jim Martin's 2008 runoff drop-off. In a diary a while back, I argued that 58% of the runoff drop-off in 2008 (compared to the 2010 general, since it makes no sense to compare it to the 2008 Presidential election) was attributable to decreased number of early voting (EV) days in the runoff. There would be at least 12 days of EV for the US Senate runoff this time. Large Dem-friendly counties had 3 days of EV in 2008, less availability than Republican-friendly counties. The drop-off in EV among AAs may have been determined in large part by this differential in availability of EV, and that narrative (of 23% of EVs being AA in the runoff) dominated the GOTV operation of 2008. That just won't happen this time.
DKE writes:
the question isn't so much whether Perdue will still be disliked in January, but one of turnout ... in other words, whether all the Democrats who turn out in November will bother to turn out again in early January, something they didn't do in 1992 or 2008.
If that's actually in question, why answer in the negative and with a big fat zero?
Now for the statewide runoffs, I hope Dems will immediately call for EV to be mandatory rather than "November 17 – 26 (or best effort)". That "or best effort" part is a recipe for repeating the fiasco of 2008's lack of availability and publicity for EV. Counties need to be ready to publish the days and locations of EV immediately after Nov 4th, rather than waiting for weeks as in 2008.
Finally, it should be noted that Dems are considering a lawsuit to push back statewide runoffs to the same date as the US Senate runoff.
* If the 50th seat is at stake, I personally would GOTV based off of the Supreme Court and a potential appointment over the next two years. The unpopularity of Citizens United fits in nicely against Perdue, as an incredible amount of outside money would be pouring into the race, and Michelle Nunn supports an amendment to overturn Citizens United and supports the DISCLOSE Act. Other unpopular 5-4 decisions include striking preclearance from the Voting Rights Act and the Hobby Lobby decision.
People who hate Roe v Wade are in the minority and probably voting anyways. BTW, 1/3 of Republican primary voters opposed a 2012 referendum in support of a personhood amendment.
9:53 AM PT: I edited the math section (not changing the actual math) by deleting a sentence of syntax to let the math stand on its own.
Respect to DKE for all that they do.
10:06 AM PT: OK, so I simplified the math.
11:03 AM PT: David Jargon of DKE commented below and points out an interesting PPP poll.