America's most famous former state attorney general, with Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring
As Election Day looms, both parties are spending plenty of money and energy on races around the country. While attorneys general are usually overshadowed by elections for governor and for U.S House and Senate, both sides recognize their importance. Attorneys general have a good deal of power when it comes to how laws are enforced. The job is also an important springboard to higher office, with many former attorneys general now serving as governors or U.S. senators. This year plenty of well funded outside groups are spending big to flip or protect these offices.
What follows is a guide to 2014's elections for attorney general. Thirty-one states will hold elections for state attorney general this year. A few look completely safe for one party or the other. Democrats should have no trouble holding onto California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont. The Republicans also look safe in Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and South Dakota. Most of these are solidly blue or red states: The only exception is Iowa, where Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller has consistently led in the polls by more than 20 points. In all of these states one candidate has a dominating lead in the polls and/ or a massive fundraising advantage, and should be favored barring a major surprise.
The other 16 states are a bit more notable. One party or the other is favored in most of them, sometimes clearly. However, there is something to watch in each contest.
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Head below the fold for a race-by-race look at this year's most exciting contests.
A map of this year's attorneys general races
The above map by
Stephen Wolf provides an overview of this year's races. The map and the following analysis do not include states where the attorney general is not elected by voters, or where the election will be held in a different year.
• AL-AG: Republican incumbent Luther Strange is favored to win a second term, but he's definitely needed to work for it. Strange faces Democratic state Rep. Joe Hubbard, the great-grandson of former Sen. Lister Hill. Strange's fight with the Poarch Band of Creek Indians over gambling has given Hubbard an opening: The group has donated heavily to the Democrat, and as of mid-October he enjoys a $642,000 to $440,000 cash-on-hand edge over the incumbent. Hubbard has portrayed Strange as obsessed with gambling and accused him of ignoring corruption and violent crimes. Strange has fired back, and is questioning Hubbard's anti-abortion credentials.
The recent indictment of Republican House Speaker Mike Hubbard (no relation to Joe) has also intensified an already bitter race. Both Speaker Hubbard and Strange are potential 2018 gubernatorial candidates, and the speaker and his allies are accusing Strange of carrying out a political witch-hunt. Strange recused himself from the case, but Joe Hubbard is arguing that a corrupt deputy was left in charge. It's still tough to see Strange losing in this very red state. However, Hubbard is credible enough that he can't be completely counted out.
• AR-AG: Democrats have held this seat since Reconstruction, and are hoping that state Rep. Nathan Steel can keep it. Steel faces former Mike Huckabee aide Leslie Rutledge, who has attracted some unfavorable headlines in recent weeks. Rutledge's voter registration was canceled in late September after a Democratic county clerk argued that she was registered in multiple states (Rutledge has since re-registered). Rutledge has also been accused of writing offensive emails in 2007 during her time at the state Department of Human Services. It's unclear how voters are responding to these stories.
Steel is a tough candidate in his own right and if he wins he'll likely be touted for higher office. However, Arkansas has turned against Democrats in recent cycles and the state's conservative lean may give even a flawed Republican like Rutledge a good chance.
• AZ-AG: Democrats hoped that they'd face scandal-tarred Republican Attorney General Tom Horne. However, former Gaming Director Mark Brnovich unseated Horne in the primary, and he will be much tougher to beat. The Democrats are fielding 2010 nominee Felecia Rotellini, who came close to winning this office in 2010.
It's hard to get a read on this contest. Four Republican pollsters have surveyed this contest in October. In early October Rotellini posted a small lead, while the latest two polls found Brnovich with a high-single digit edge. Arizona's red hue probably gives Brnovich the edge here, especially with Team Red looking like the favorites in the gubernatorial race. Still, Rotellini may be able to pull off a surprise especially if Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fred DuVal does well.
• CO-AG: Democrats initially hoped that former Adams County District Attorney Don Quick could flip this seat, but the Republicans are looking strong here. The GOP has nominated Cynthia Coffman, a deputy state attorney general (her husband Rep. Mike Coffman also represents a suburban Denver House seat). Recent polls have given Coffman a double-digit lead, and national Democrats have canceled their ad reservations. Coffman also holds a huge cash-on-hand lead, which will make it difficult for Quick to make up ground. This year Democrats are struggling in Colorado: While Gov. John Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark Udall's incumbency gives them a shot to win, Quick doesn't have that advantage.
• FL-AG: Republican incumbent Pam Bondi is a likely candidate for higher office down the line, and Democrats hoped that they could stop her this year. However, Bondi has a massive cash lead over political veteran George Sheldon. Two recent polls give Bondi an eight and 10-point lead respectively, and Bondi still has plenty of money left to spend to get her message out. Florida has not unseated an incumbent attorney general in 50 years, and it doesn't look like that streak will be broken this time.
• GA-AG: Peach State Republicans have had an unexpectedly tough cycle, and Attorney General Sam Olens is not immune. Olens has consistently led former Democratic state Sen. Greg Hecht in the polls, but usually only by single digits. A recent SurveyUSA poll found Olens with a 47-40 lead, up from his three-point edge a few weeks before. The incumbent also has a big cash lead.
Hecht is accusing Olens of soliciting money from a state senator he was investigating, and of using state staff and resources for his campaign. Olens is denying the charges. If neither candidate wins more than 50 percent in November, they will advance to a December runoff.
• MI-AG: Republican Bill Schuette is a likely candidate for higher office down the line, and state Democrats are hoping they can beat him now. The Democratic nominee is law professor Mark Totten. Schuette is accusing Totten of not being qualified to serve, while Totten is portraying Schuette as a right-wing ideologue.
There are two recent polls, showing very different results. A recent Democratic poll found things tied up 38-38, but an independent EPIC MRA survey gave Schuette a 43-33 lead. Totten has far less money available than Schuette, which puts him at a disadvantage. If Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mark Schauer wins next month his coattails may be enough to take Totten along with him. However, it's hard to see Totten significantly outperforming Schauer right now.
• NV-AG: In any normal year, Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller would be the clear favorite over Republican attorney Adam Laxalt. Laxalt earned some very unfavorable headlines after a 2012 evaluation from his supervisors leaked: "Train wreck" was one of the nicer things he was called. Recently, several members of the Laxalt family also endorsed Miller.
However, this is not a normal year. Democratic turnout in early voting is abysmal, and the more conservative electorate gives Laxalt a better shot. Republicans also want to stop Miller now before he can run for governor in 2018, and they've been giving Laxalt some critical financial support.
Both sides agree Miller has a lead of some sort. Laxalt claims his polls have Miller up by only two points, while Miller says he leads by more. A recent survey from the Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group on behalf of major gaming interests give Miller an 11-point edge. Miller probably is still favored, but poor turnout does introduce a very unwelcome unpredictable element to this contest.
• NM-AG: Democratic state Auditor Hector Balderas is probably favored over former Republican judge Susan Riedel, but it's hard to say. New Mexico leans Democratic and Balderas holds a major fundraising edge. Balderas is also getting support from the Democratic Attorney General Association, whose super PAC has been running ads on his behalf. However, there is no reliable public polling, and observers say this contest is close. Republican Gov. Susana Martinez looks poised to easily win re-election, and she could take her longtime ally Riedel across the finish line with her.
• NY-AG: Republicans have been touting former George Pataki chief of staff John Cahill as someone who can give Democratic incumbent Eric Schneiderman a real race. Schneiderman has been taking Cahill seriously from the start, and has been raising money and running ads. If recent polls are any indication though, Schneiderman is the clear favorite in this blue state. An early October Quinnipiac poll gave Schneiderman a 46-34 lead, while Sienna recently found him up by 20 points.
• OH-AG: Former Republican Sen. Mike DeWine won this office in 2010, and he looks favored to keep it. Team Blue is running former Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper, who is arguing that DeWine has run a corrupt office. DeWine is hitting back, portraying Pepper as unethical himself and hitting him over the $10,000 in traffic fines Pepper has incurred. An early September University of Akron Poll gave DeWine a 41-22 lead. Now that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ed Fitzgerald's campaign has imploded, it may be tough for Buckeye State Democrats to get their voters out, and even tougher to unseat the well-known DeWine.
• RI-AG: Democratic incumbent Peter Kilmartin faces state Sen. Dawson Hodgson, who has managed to raise a credible amount of money. Hodgson's campaign has been centered on 38 Studios, a video game company that took state loans shortly before it went bankrupt. Hodgson is hitting Kilmartin for voting in favor of the loan while he was in the legislature, and for now doing enough to investigate them as attorney general. The attacks don't seem to be resonating though: A recent poll gave Kilmartin a 46-32 lead.
• TX-AG: Republican state Sen. Ken Paxton looks to be the clear favorite to defeat the awesomely named but underfunded Sam Houston. Paxton easily won the primary even after voters found out that he paid a $1,000 fine after he didn't disclose how he collected money for referring clients. Democrats have hoped that this story could drag Paxton down, but so far he looks poised to win easily: A recent poll gave him a 20-point edge. If more details emerge about Paxton's ethics problems things could get interesting, but there isn't much time left.
• UT-AG: Appointed Republican Sean Reyes is expected to coast to victory in the special election to fill the rest of this term. However, both of Reyes' Republican predecessors are currently awaiting trial for corruption, potentially complicating things. Reyes is arguing that he's worked hard to reform the office, while Democratic rival Charles Stormont says that the incumbent hasn't done enough. Utah is a very red state and Reyes should easily win, but the recent scandals do make things more interesting than usual.
• WI-AG: Both parties are working hard to take this open seat. Republican Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel will face Jefferson County District Attorney Susan Happ, who won a surprisingly easily victory in the August primary.
Schimel made headlines when he admitted that he would have reluctantly defended a ban on interracial marriage if he had been serving as attorney general in a state that had the law on the books. However, his comments don't seem to have done much to move the needle toward Happ. A recent Marquette poll found the race tight both before Schimel's admission and afterwards. Another recent poll also found a very close race. Like the gubernatorial contest between Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Mary Burke, this is expected to be a very close fight to the finish.
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