My somewhat lazy, apathetic vote counts JUST AS MUCH as a very enthusiastic (and misguided) vote from an insane right-winger! And when I say "lazy" I mean that I voted while sitting on my couch (and then stuck my ballot in the mail).
Here are my predictions for the remaining close Senate races:
Alaska
Begich 48% Sullivan 45%
There's a poll out there (by a Republican outfit) that shows Begich leading by ten points. This probably has to do with the National Guard scandal. I believe that the scandal will blow over somewhat, but not enough to save Sullivan in my view. Add to that Begich's superior ground game and you have a mild surprise on election night.
Here is a link to that poll and also to some scintillating analysis by Democratic operative Guy Cecil about his internal numbers for all the close Senate races:
http://politicalwire.com/...
Arkansas
Cotton 51% Pryor 46%
I know that there have been claims that Pryor's ground operation could keep him in office, but I feel he's clearly one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. I see Cotton winning this one. I hope not though!
Colorado
Gardner 49% Udall 47%
I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Yes, I present to you, your next zombie Senator: Cory Gardner! Now the afore-mentioned Guy Cecil seems bullish on Colorado because this marks the first election in which every single voter got a ballot in the mail. Cecil believes that there will be two million votes cast in this race, which puts it on par with the turnout generated by a Presidential race. I still think Gardner will squeak by due to college kids not voting as much as they did in 2012. :-(
Georgia
Nunn 50% Perdue 46%
Surprise! Nunn gets over the 50% mark. Okay, this might not happen, but a boy can dream can't he? Nunn has been leading in most recent polls so this isn't that much of a stretch. David Perdue is a horrible, horrible person so Nunn just has to win! On election night! No run off, do you hear me Georgia?!?!
Iowa
Braley 49% Ernst 48%
Cecil states in the afore mentioned video that the Democrats are dominating among voters who didn't vote in 2010. He says we have a 22 point lead among those voters. He also declares that the Republican early voters so far have been mainly people who vote regularly anyway. This is good analysis, but I remember hearing this argument from some of the Republican pundits in 2012 about our turnout operation in Iowa.
Then again Republican pundits are complete fucking liars from hell. Braley takes it down.
Kansas
Orman 49% Roberts 45%
Pat Roberts is a totally useless Senator and I have faith that the good people of Kansas understand this.
Kentucky
Grimes 48% McConnell 48%
We might not know who the winner is on election night. My gut tells me McConnell is going to survive, but I threw up in my mouth earlier when I said Gardner was going to take Colorado, and I don't want to throw up a second time by declaring McConnell the winner. I don't like throwing up.
Louisiana
Election Day: Landrieu 46% Cassidy 43%
Runoff: Cassidy 52% Landrieu 48%
:-(
New Hampshire
Shaheen 49% Brown 48%
Closer than most people think, but Shaheen squeaks by in a critical race.
North Carolina
Hagan 48% Tillis 46%
A very close race, but Hagan has led in almost every serious poll for weeks on end.
South Dakota
Rounds 36% Weiland 33% Pressler 29%
Sadly, I think a big push for Weiland falls just short. But a three-point victory in this deep red state during a mid-term election should give some Republican operatives serious pause.
So my final prediction (hoping beyond hope that Grimes pulls off a miracle in Kentucky) is the following
Democrats lose 4 seats
Republicans gain 3 seats
Independents gain 1 seat
If the Independents all end up caucusing with the Democrats, then the makeup of the Senate will look as follows:
Democrats 52, Republicans 48
I would laugh so damn hard if this happened. Wouldn't you?!?