This is the second post I have written looking for kossacks who want to play along. From the first post, we currently have 4 players:
JackND
Its the Supreme Court Stupid
JGibson
tarkangi
Join the action!
How well can you predict the outcome of the 2014 Midterm Elections?
In a lot of ways, the political punditocracy is much like the Fantasy Football mavens who have taken the sports world by storm.
They get paid big bucks to make predictions that laypeople are supposed to take as more well-informed than the average guesser, but rarely are they ever taken to task for their accuracy.
Well now, here is your chance to see how well you might stack up against the so-called professionals, but also, your fellow kossacks.
With the elections less than a week away, I thought this would be the perfect time to kick this off.
Close enough that most of the action is locked in, but far enough away that some crazy unpredicted turn of events can still be in the cards.
The Prize: A one-year Dailykos subscription, but more importantly, Bragging Rights.
If someone has something better to offer that they'd be willing to kick in as the prize, that would be great. But on the other hand, we've all been inundated with enough funding requests, amirite?
So just look at this is a bit of good, clean, gut-punching fun (cuz really, who wants to see "Safe" next to names like Lindsay Graham and Thad Cochran and Jim Inhofe?).
The game is limited to the Senate and Governor elections.
The point system is based on the Daily Kos Election Race Ratings (as of 10/28).
Summary of how to score points:
For Safe Seats, correctly predicting an upset is 5 points (an upset being the supposed Safe seat going to anyone other than the presumed winner), but incorrect guesses of upsets are worth -5 points (otherwise, one could just guess an upset for every race).
For Likely Seats, correct predictions are worth 1 point, incorrect guesses are worth -1. Again, to reflect the safe-bet nature of picking the winner of these seats.
For Tossups and Lean Seats, since these are statistically the hardest ones to pick, this is where I envision the meat and potatoes of the scoring to take place. Correct guesses are worth 3 points, but no points lost for incorrect guesses.
Additional Bonus Section, Tie-breaker, and +5 points if you predict a winner in the Likely, Lean, or Tossup Races, who is not one of the named contenders below.
I tried to devise a point system to try to allow for as much strategy as possible.
Sounds like fun, no?
Here is how you play:
1. Follow the instructions below the squiggle on how to set your lineup.
2. Publish your lineup into a comment below (preferably as a new thread). Note: Lineups must be published before 10/31 Midnight to count, to mitigate unfair advantages for people who lock-in their lineups closer to election day.
3. Trash talk.
So without any further ado, I present the 2014 Championship for Best Poll Unskewer.
How to set your line-up:
This is mostly to ease keeping track of scores by being able to copy straight to excel.
Copy every line from "Senate" to "Which Party..." into the body of the comment.
For Safe Seats, put an X next to the favored candidate if you predict an upset. Otherwise, do not add anything additional.
For Likely, Lean, and Tossup Seats, leave the name of the person you are choosing to win, and delete the other one. If you are choosing anyone other than the two named contenders, delete their names and write-in your choice.
For the Bonus Point options, Write either Yes or No
For the Tie-breaker, write the Party name and number of seats you expect that party to pickup.
You can play as many or as few as you want. If you don't want to predict a race, leave the line unchanged and it will not count against you.
See this entry in the comments of the first post for reference.
Senate:
Safe Seats:
Alabama (Safe R) Jeff Sessions (R-Inc)
Delaware (Safe D) Chris Coons (D-Inc)
Hawaii (Safe D) Brian Schatz (D-Inc)
Idaho (Safe R) Jim Risch (R-Inc)
Illinois (Safe D) Rick Durbin (D-Inc)
Maine (Safe R) Susan Collins (R-Inc)
Massachusetts (Safe D) Ed Markey (D-Inc)
Mississippi (Safe R) Thad Cochran (R-Inc)
Nebraska (Safe R) Ben Sasse (R )
New Jersey (Safe D) Cory Booker (D-Inc)
New Mexico (Safe D) Tom Udall (D-Inc)
Oklahoma-A (Safe R) Jim Inhofe (R-Inc)
Oklahoma-B (Safe R) James Lankford (R )
Rhode Island (Safe D) Jack Reed (D-Inc)
South Carolina-A (Safe R) Lindsey Graham (R-Inc)
South Carolina-B (Safe R) Tim Scott (R-Inc)
Tennessee (Safe R) Lamar Alexander (R-Inc)
Texas (Safe R) John Cornyn (R-Inc)
Wyoming (Safe R) Mike Enzi (R-Inc)
Likely Seats:
Michigan (Likely D) Gary Peters (D) vs. Terri Lynn Land (R )
Minnesota (Likely D) Al Franken (D-Inc) vs. Mike McFadden (R )
Montana (Likely R) Amanda Curtis (D) vs. Steve Daines (R )
Oregon (Likely D) Jeff Merkley (D-Inc) vs. Monica Wehby (R )
Virginia (Likely D) Mark Warner (D-Inc) vs. Ed Gillespie (R )
West Virginia (Likely R) Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Shelley Moore Capito (R )
Lean and Tossup Seats:
Alaska (Tossup) Mark Begich (D-Inc) vs. Dan Sullivan (R )
Arkansas (Tossup) Mark Pryor (D-Inc) vs. Tom Cotton (R )
Colorado (Tossup) Mark Udall (D-Inc) vs. Cory Gardner (R )
Georgia (Lean R) Michelle Nunn (D) vs. David Perdue (R )
Iowa (Tossup) Bruce Braley (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R )
Kansas (Tossup) Greg Orman (I) vs. Pat Roberts (R-Inc)
Kentucky (Lean R) Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) vs. Mitch McConnell (R-Inc)
Louisiana (Tossup) Mary Landrieu (D-Inc) vs. Bill Cassidy (R )
New Hampshire (Tossup) Jeanne Shaheen (D-Inc) vs. Scott Brown (R )
North Carolina (Tossup) Kay Hagan (D-Inc) vs. Thom Tillis (R )
South Dakota (Lean R) Rick Weiland (D) vs. Mike Rounds (R )
Governors:
Safe Seats:
Alabama (Safe R) Robert Bentley (R-Inc)
California (Safe D) Jerry Brown (D-Inc)
Iowa (Safe R) Terry Branstad (R-Inc)
Nevada (Safe R) Brian Sandoval (R-Inc)
New York (Safe D) Andrew Cuomo (D-Inc)
Ohio (Safe R) John Kasich (R-Inc)
South Dakota (Safe R) Dennis Daugaard (R-Inc)
Tennessee (Safe R) Bill Haslam (R-Inc)
Vermont (Safe D) Peter Shumlin (D-Inc)
Wyoming (Safe R) Matt Mead (R-Inc)
Likely Seats:
Georgia (Likely R) Jason Carter (D) vs. Nathan Deal (R-Inc)
Idaho (Likely R) A.J. Bakuloff (D) vs. Butch Otter (R-Inc)
Minnesota (Likely D) Mark Dayton (D-Inc) vs. Jeff Johnson (R )
Nebraska (Likely R) Chuck Hassebrook (D) vs. Pete Ricketts (R )
New Hampshire (Likely D) Maggie Hassan (D-Inc) vs. Walt Havenstein (R )
New Mexico (Likely R) Gary King (D) vs. Susana Martinez (R-Inc)
Oklahoma (Likely R) Joe Dorman (D) vs. Mary Fallin (R-Inc)
Oregon (Likely D) John Kitzhaber (D-Inc) vs. Dennis Richardson (R )
Pennsylvania (Likely D) Tom Wolf (D) vs. Tom Corbett (R-Inc)
Rhode Island (Likely D) Gina Raimondo (D) vs. Allan Fung (R )
South Carolina (Likely R) Vincent Sheheen (D) vs. Nikki Haley (R-Inc)
Texas (Likely R) Wendy Davis (D) vs. Greg Abbott (R )
Lean and Tossup Seats:
Alaska (Tossup) Bill Walker (I) vs. Sean Parnell (R-Inc)
Arizona (Lean R) Fred DuVal (D) vs. Doug Ducey (R )
Arkansas (Lean R) Mike Ross (D) vs. Asa Hutchinson (R )
Colorado (Tossup) John Hickenlooper (D-Inc) vs. Bob Beauprez (R )
Connecticut (Tossup) Dan Malloy (D-Inc) vs. Tom Foley (R )
Florida (Tossup) Charlie Crist (D) vs. Rick Scott (R-Inc)
Hawaii (Lean D) David Ige (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R )
Illinois (Tossup) Pat Quinn (D-Inc) vs. Bruce Rauner (R )
Kansas (Tossup) Paul Davis (D) vs. Sam Brownback (R-Inc)
Maine (Tossup) Mike Michaud (D) vs. Paul LePage (R-Inc)
Maryland (Lean D) Anthony Brown (D) vs. Larry Hogan (R )
Massachusetts (Tossup) Martha Coakley (D) vs. Charles Baker (R )
Michigan (Tossup) Mark Schauer (D) vs. Rick Snyder (R-Inc)
Wisconsin (Tossup) Mary Burke (D) vs. Scott Walker (R-Inc)
Bonus Points:
(+3) Will Democrats Maintain Control of Senate?
(+3) Will Georgia Senate Go to a Runoff?
(+3) Will Independents Decide Control of Senate?
(+3) Will We Know By Nov. 5th Who Controls Senate?
Tie-Breaker:
Which Party Picks Up Seats in the House and How Many?
Deadline: October 31st, at Midnight
Remember, this is for fun. But also, Bragging Rights. So take it as seriously as you want.
Think you have what it takes?