Now that the election has passed, I think that it's very important to focus on Georgia and what many now might start to see as unrealistic expectations. I grew up in New England and have twice now lived in Georgia. Since my days in college, the Democratic Party in Georgia has been in disarray or simply out muscled by the Republican Party. President Obama gave hope in 2008 and 2012 that the state is moving a purple direction, but after last evening, people might need to be more realistic about where Georgia truly is.
The strong showing of President Obama due to excellent African-American turnout in '08 (52-47) and '12 (53-46) seems clearer and clearer to be an anomaly when it comes to voting patterns in the state. Even with record breaking turnout, President Obama came no closer than five points in the general election. Statewide offices have gone from Democratic for decades to overwhelmingly solid Republican and the margin of vote for the GOP continues to be wildly impressive.
The electorate is overwhelmingly conservative in this state outside of roughly a dozen of the 159 counties. The U.S. House delegation has become redder (not going into gerrymandering in this post) and you have a very blood red angry electorate. My wealthy suburban county maxes out at about 18% of the vote going Democratic although it's been cited many times as changing becoming more diverse and flooded with "northern" transplants. What seems to be lost of many people outside of many of these areas is that the vast majority of transplants are like minded conservatives looking to flee their bastions of liberalism. Much the way I'd like to leave this militant right wing area and return to a progressive state, these people are flocking here for everything from the weather to the politics.
My wife grew up here and I'm a transplant. Her first crystal clear inclination this cycle was that the polling was sampling incorrectly and the party continues to be unrealistic about electoral chances in Georgia. She was proven to be correct yet again. Money wasn't an issue as the pro-Nunn and Carter ads flooded the airwaves just as much as the opposing ads.
I heard a commentator on MSNBC cite a county in Georgia that was wildly changing and becoming heavily Hispanic. My first question was where in Ga is she citing? I've never heard of the county. Ahhh.. She was citing a hole in the wall area with 6,000 people as the populous. Cherry picking an area that has virtually no significance in term of numbers is really stretching.
A growing Hispanic population doesn't translate into some lock of votes for a variety of reasons and at roughly 10% of the population, there simply isn't a large enough block to overcome the distinct and large advantages that the GOP has. If our African-American population of 30% can't get us close enough to win, it should spell trouble and Democrats MUST take a more realistic view of this state. Lost in the mix is that the white vote has become much more Republican over the past decade.
A lot of resources went into the fight down here and the bottom line is that the Republican brand is as strong as ever. We have to stop selling Georgia as a purple state and one that is changing rapidly. It's unrealistic and bogus. If we want to be realistic about future elections, we have to be honest about reality and stop selling a bill of goods.
For 2016, I'm all for trying, but to think that the Democrats have an honest chance of flipping this state for the Presidency or any other office shows a large dose of being naive or drinking too much of the Kool-Aid. I was lambasted by some others for being negative or wrong many times, but I was being honest and realistic.
The population might be changing in Georgia, but the electorate isn't nearly as Democratic as many in our party wants to make it out to be. Most Republicans here are challenged by Tea Party types that make a typical right-wing Republican seem tame.
I know of many (included elected officials) that are in the GOP and they really dislike Deal and Purdue. Even with their complete distaste of the two, they still marched into the voting booths and re-elected/elected these clowns. The final numbers show some of that Deal and Purdue did get between 3-6% (as of earlier results) less of the vote than most of the other statewide offices, so it does show the dislike, but the GOP padding here is enormous.
I hope that the party takes an honest look at where to spend resourced during the next cycle. Should the party just spend to make the GOP spend next time around? Or, should the party send resources to places that are more realistic to win?
I appreciate you reading as I haven't posted in years, but wanted to give a realistic view on the ground here.