Daily Kos was fun today.
Lots of users, including Kos himself, 'know' why we lost, or are pretty sure if we had 'just done this', 'just said that', 'hadn't done this', etc.
Truth-tellers, or soothsayers?
Let's look at some real facts below the squig.
Out of the states that turned Senate seats to Republicans, we have the following actual facts:
(note: from source, not all votes were counted but all victors declared)
Alaska: 2012 Romney +14%, 2014 Senate Republican by +4%
Arkansas: 2012 Romney +24% 2014 Senate Republican by +18%
Colorado: 2012 Obama by +4%, 2014 Senate Republican by +3%
Montana: 2012 Romney by +13%, 2014 Senate Republican by +8%
North Carolina: 2012 Romney by +3%, 2014 Senate Republican by 2%
South Dakota: 2012 Romney by +18%, 2014 Senate Republican by +20% (17% went to an Independent)
West Virginia: 2012 Romney by +26%, 2014 Senate Republican by +28%
Iowa: 2012 Obama by +6%, 2014 Senate Republican by +8%
http://elections.nbcnews.com/...
http://www.cnn.com/...
So, we lost two states that voted for Obama in 2012. Two, one of which lacked an incumbent. Only because of the cycle, we had to win both to keep Republicans out of the Senate majority, assuming that red states, in fact, voted for Republicans, which they did.
And, because one cannot predict the future nor ignore context, arguing that:
- because we didn't pass immigration reform (as if the House would've ever done that)
- because we weren't lefty enough in red states (Wendy Davis?)
- because Democrats don't stand for anything and we don't drive the vote
is Speculation, speculation which must overcome these FACTS:
1. Only one president in the past CENTURY had friendly gains in midterm elections during his 2nd term..and that was the darn neoliberal, blue-dog Bill Clinton.
2. Only in two 'blue' states (at least 2 states that went for Obama in 2012) did we lose a Senate contest in, and only one of those was an incumbent.
Yep, the next two years are going to suck: either Obama is going to stonewall the Repubs and even less will be done (and consumer and credit confidence will falter), or Obama is going to concede to a lot of loser policies of Republicans.
Yep, we need to work at the grassroots level to find more and motivate more strong, leader-quality, ambitious progressives.
But you cannot ignore or dismiss that historically and demographically, we had it all against us.
But, I ask you, for all the doom-and-gloom and truthiness on the boards today:
How do you overcome the above facts in order to successfully justify your speculation?