With all eyes on Washington, there's a quiet crisis going on in the states. Republicans have taken control of a large number of state legislatures in recent years. In 2010, the GOP took more than 700 seats (>10%) in a Tea Party takeover. Shortly after this, a wave of ALEC model bills (Right to Work, Voter ID, etc) appeared on state legislative agendas. It's almost certain that more of the same is on the way, if Republicans could take more state legislatures.
The Republican landslide in 2010 and the subsequent redistricting process in 2012 gave the GOP control of a nearly unprecedented number of legislative chambers. Today, the party controls 59 of the 98 partisan chambers in 49 states, while Democrats control only 39 chambers (One legislature, Nebraska’s is officially nonpartisan)...
“Whichever state legislative chambers Republicans fail to pick up this Election Day are likely out of the GOP’s reach for a decade,” said Carolyn Fiddler, a Democratic strategist who focuses on legislative seats at The Atlas Project. “Republicans will make their hay while the sun shines this year, but it could be their last chance to do so for quite some time.”
It Wasn't Always This Way
If you go back to before the Republican Revolution in 1994, one of the things that really sticks out is just how much influence Democrats have lost in the states. Well into the early 2000s, Democrats controlled state legislatures throughout the South, and were competitive in the Midwest. This has changed in recent years as the South, and increasingly the Midwest have seen Republicans gain control of state legislatures.
Prior to the 2010 legislative elections, Democrats held at least one chamber in a number of Midwestern states, and were competitive in the South.
Many of you will remember the 2011 Wisconsin Protests in which thousands came to that state's capitol in order voice their disgust with proposals to deny state workers their right to collective bargaining. A similar proposal, SB 5 passed through the legislature in Ohio. In Indiana, Democratic members of the Indiana House< walked out in order to deny a quorum on a right to work (RTW) bill, and avoid attempts by the Republican Speaker, who himself had led a walkout in 2001, to have missing legislators arrested by state police, and returned to the chamber. This effort succeeded in the short term, but in 2012, RTW bills passed in both Indiana and Michigan. All this was made possible by GOP capture of state legislatures in in number of Midwestern states. 2011 was the Tea Party's year zero, and we should be prepared to see even more craziness if the GOP succeeds in taking more state legislative chapters.
It's Probably Going to Get Worse
2015 will likely be the apex of Tea Party influence. Demographic trends, and the reality that they've already won most of what they might, suggest that in the waning years of this decade, the GOP is going to be fight to keep what they have. In addition to being an assault on basic human rights, the efforts to target collective bargaining and access to voting are efforts to fight ongoing, secular, trends. That said, the state of affairs in state legislatures as of the start of this year, is worrying.
In the 2010 elections, the GOP managed to take just over 10% of legislative from Democrats. Based upon their present partisan composition, this suggests that several state legislatures are in trouble.
If the GOP increased their share of legislative seats by 10%, this would mean that Democrats could lose state house chambers in IL, ME, CO, OR, WA, NH, MN, KY, WV, and NM. The same swing in state senate chambers would could me Democrats losing this chamber in CT, ME, OR, NV, IA, NY, CO, and WA. I've calculated this assuming a uniform swing, with the least likely at first, and the most likely to switch last. So this means that Democrats losing the IL house is least likely, while the NM House going Republican is most likely. This information is plotted out below, with the light red indicating the loss of one chamber, and the deep red the loss of both.
Possible 2014 GOP Takeovers
Potentially even more frightening is that a swing of this size would give House Republicans legislative supermajorities in GA, AK, AL, NC, TX, SC, FL, MT, WI, OH, and AZ. Senate Republicans would receive supermajorities in NC, AK, FL, KY, AR, TX, AZ, and MT.
Possible 2014 GOP Supermajorities
All this adds up to a nightmare scenario, in which the GOP controls 34 state legislatures, and holds a legislative chamber in 8 more states. This is the very worst case scenario, in which there is a uniform swing in state legislative seats on the order of 2010. Most likely, it won't be quite this bad, but the problem is that everyone is so focused on Washington, that some version of this is a plausible outcome.
Why This All Matters
John Oliver did a precious little piece about the dysfunction in state legislatures. Just watch it.