Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer looks ready to call it quits
It looks like we may be in for a very big race in the Golden State, with Politico's Alex Isenstadt reporting that California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is on the
verge of retirement. Boxer will reportedly make a decision over the holidays and announce it in early 2015, but she doesn't seem likely to stay on. The senator has halted her fundraising and isn't doing anything to prepare a campaign, and the loss of her Senate Environment and Public Works Committee chairmanship gives her another reason to call it quits.
Ambitious state Democrats haven't had a good opportunity to advance in a long time. Both Boxer and Senate colleague Dianne Feinstein have held their posts since 1992, and Gov. Jerry Brown cleared the field in 2010's open seat race. If Boxer leaves, plenty of Democrats are expected to take a very serious look at running to replace her, and Isenstadt gives us plenty of names.
In fact, the right question to ask may not be who will run if Boxer leaves, but who won't run. Both Attorney General Kamala Harris and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom are already getting a lot of attention. The two share plenty of consultants and donors so there's good reason to think that they won't run against one another, though the possibility has plenty of California Democrats anxious. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is already talking to consultants about a possible campaign, and billionaire Tom Steyer (who primarily funded the group NextGen Climate during the 2014 cycle) isn't ruling anything out. Isenstadt mentions a few other potential Democratic contenders. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's name always comes up for open statewide races, though in the past he's seemed much more interested in running for governor. Rep. Jackie Speier, Secretary of State-elect Secretary of State Alex Padilla, and Treasurer-elect John Chiang are also possibilities.
Over at the San Francisco Chronicle, Carla Marinucci drops more names for future statewide races. She notes that party insiders are talking about Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones, Rep. Xavier Becerra, and former Rep. Jane Harman. She also names former Controller Steve Westly, who lost a 2006 primary for governor and has since emerged as a prominent Obama fundraiser (and was even the subject of an RNC attack ad during the 2012 campaign). Both Isenstadt and Marinucci also mention Facebook chief executive Sheryl Sandberg, though her camp is saying she's not interested.
While we definitely could be in for a crowded race, some of these would-be contenders (and some people who weren't mentioned here) may decide to wait things out. Feinstein will be 85 when her seat is next up in 2018, and it's quite possible she retires and opens up the other Senate seat. Brown is also termed out as governor then, and he doesn't have an obvious successor. It looks like the next two cycles could bring us plenty of exciting primaries after decades of stasis at the top of the ticket.
California is a dark blue state especially in presidential years, and so far there hasn't been much talk when it comes to Republican contenders. The biggest GOP name in the state is probably San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who is up for re-election in 2016 and would probably prefer to keep his powder dry for later. However, California's top-two primary system means we can't quite dismiss the possibility of a Republican pickup here. If enough Democrats run here and primary turnout is weak enough, it's possible that two Republicans could sneak through and grab both general election spots. It would take a lot of luck for the GOP to pull this off, but Team Blue definitely should be on guard for this.