The three-judge panel that will hear the marriage equality cases in Texas and Mississippi (Louisiana's case has been appealed directly to the Supreme Court) has been revealed.
The three judges Reagan appointees Jerry Smith and Patrick Higginbotham, and Obama appointee James Greaves.
Judge Smith is a lost cause. There is no way that he will side with marriage equality. He has called feminists "a gaggle of outcasts, misfits and rejects", has claimed to be a "right-wing activist", and, in 2012, infamously demanded that the Department of Justice write a letter in response to a political statement by President Obama about the Affordable Care Act, just because he disagreed with it.
Judge Greaves is quite new, and we cannot be so sure of his views yet. But being an Obama appointee, there's good reason to believe he will favor marriage equality.
Judge Higginbotham is conservative, but not a loony bombastic conservative like Judge Smith. He has written an opinion upholding the affirmative action policy of the University of Texas, and has described himself as "left of center" on the spectrum of the Fifth Circuit.
So we have one judge that will certainly reject marriage equality, and two who we cannot predict so well. I think we are more likely to lose at the Fifth Circuit, but that's certainly not guaranteed. The panel could certainly be a lot worse.