Someone is right and someone is wrong about 2014. Let’s find out who. We enter the last 24 hours before the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional Districts with a bunch of interesting information that may or may not mean anything. Rick Scott, current GOP Governor of Florida, is the subject of a host of new polling that has him trailing Former Governor Charlie Crist in a major way. ObamaCare, the signature attack and argument of the GOP – other than the blackness of President Obama – has lost steam as a wedge issue as more people are enrolled and the massive benefits become clear.
This post was published to Critical Blackness at 3:43:51 PM 3/10/2014
Someone is right and someone is wrong about 2014. Let’s find out who. We enter the last 24 hours before the special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional Districts with a bunch of interesting information that may or may not mean anything. Rick Scott, current GOP Governor of Florida, is the subject of a host of new polling that has him trailing Former Governor Charlie Crist in a major way. ObamaCare, the signature attack and argument of the GOP – other than the blackness of President Obama – has lost steam as a wedge issue as more people are enrolled and the massive benefits become clear.
As I have always maintained as we move further through this initial year of ObamaCare it will become more and more popular. When the 2014 rebates hit in August and people who have not uses all of the premium and the checks start rolling in, the Program is going to become a complete win for Ds.
Further, anyone who knows someone that has needed to use the insurance in these first couple of months – I know two people who had catastrophic health issues in Jan 2014, both of whom benefit from ObamaCare in a way that will save them from bankruptcy – will love the program earlier than the rebate period.
Ocare is a win, Scott is in freefall, and there is a chance a D wins in a seat Rs are counting on in Florida. If that happens tomorrow what it means, mostly, is that this is the beginning of a very bad year for Rs.
The district is 25% over 65. That is a combo demographic in the whole ObamaCare, Obama Presidency saga. Older, white, southern – even transplants – are not what you would call Obama’s base. He did poorly state by state with that exact demographic, and this group, fixed income, retired workers, are supremely distrustful of President Obama and ObamaCare. But – and it is a big but – the GOP, by attacking all social programs, by attempting to void the Great Society, by attempting to roll back the clock on all things progressive and positive, have opened themselves up to a very simple counter argument.
“The GOP wants to take away your Social Security so that rich people don’t have to pay more.”
Simple, straight forward, and basically inarguable. When Rs respond to that kind of accusation they say things like, “class warfare,” they say things like, “strengthen Medicare and Social Security.” It should work for them on paper; in fact, it has for the last 5 years as people like the FL 13th have voted against their self-interest to support anti-Obama Rs. However, that reality was more about race and less about message and the GOP, trapped in an echo-loop of their own hate, cannot get off that one note of ObamaCare mania and how much they despise the President. As I said, they are leaving themselves vulnerable to basic counter-attacks.
The simplicity of the D message, the rapid fall from grace of almost every national R who might be a contender in 2016, the tunnel vision of the Rs on Benghazi, IRS, and other faux scandal mongering, the inability of the GOP to actually govern anything, even themselves, should and is worrisome to the GOP.
Grimes in KY is doing better than she should. Nunn in GA likewise is doing better than she should. CPAC, the capital of crazy town during most years, was restrained, showcased women as much as they could, and besides the hysterical empty room for its diversity outreach panel, they made news by not being psychotic.
Corbett (Gov-PA) is fighting to save cuts to food stamps after trying to gut the program for two years. Kasich in OH has never seen a D program he didn’t like. Walker is trying to be a humbler, nicer version of himself – though I don’t even know what they would look like. The R Governors of Blue states aren’t tacking to the middle because they want to, they are doing it because people who get paid money to advise them are telling them if they don’t they are in trouble.
These races matter because when a contested Gov or a national race is on the ballot in mid-terms there is a chance for higher than average turnout. No model with good turnout favors the GOP in the main blue states. There are places in FL, for example where Slate is reporting Crist is up 34 points on Scott. The GOP, like the Ds before them, has had success in some tweener districts. Those districts could fall blue rather than red simply because the Governor of the State is in trouble. Think PA, OH, FL, ME, MI, and WI.
Yes, I know people are saying Ds have no chance at the House and are likely to lose the Senate. I disagree. The House is a long shot, but the Senate is more than survivable. We have the chance to hold. We will know more tomorrow night. VA went big blue, and FL 13th is a test to see if something similar is possible there. This is a proof of concept moment for the Dems and for the GOP. Two messages, one about ObamaCare, one about a preservation of functional necessary government. We’ll see who wins and adjust accordingly, but is the Rs lose on the ObamaCare message again; they could be in for a very long year. Every ObamaCare trend-line destroys the GOP. At some point the voters are going to ask, "why have you been trying to deny me my ObamaCare." When that happens the Rs are in deep trouble.
Peace,
J. Christian Watts
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