Judging from this paragraph you would assume the Senate races in AR, LA, NC & KY are the Gettysburg battlefields of November's "War Of Southern Aggression".
The survey underscores a favorable political environment over all for Republicans in Kentucky, North Carolina, Louisiana and Arkansas — states President Obama lost in 2012 and where his disapproval rating runs as high as 60 percent. But it also shows how circumstances in each state are keeping them in play for the Democrats a little more than six months before the midterm elections.
These are supposed to be the "Gimme"s in this RED/BLUE struggle for supremacy in the House Of Lords. Arkansas, Louisiana and N. Carolina have been effectively written off by serious pundits and journolismos for months. Most importantly, look at that bolded line, how can a Dem win where the POTUS is soooooooo unpopular?
NEWSFLASH: The President isn't on the ballot. Lets look at some real numbers about real candidates running for real Senate seats per NYT/Kaiser shall we?
AR-Sen
Pryor 46% - Cotton 36%
NC-Sen
Hagan 42% - Tillis 40%
LA-Sen
(inclusive primary)* showing top two vote getters
Landrieu 42% - Cassidy 18%
KY-Sen
McConnell 44% - Grimes 43%
________
Generic Congressional Vote
AR
R39% - D35%
KY
R43% - D37%
NC
R38% - D40%
LA
R38% - D39%
The most recent polling is showing a moving electoral target and it is moving to the left. Tom Cotton was ahead or tied with Pryor going into the new year but we now see him down to the incumbent hedgehog by 10%. This isn't because Pryor is a great progressive but because Arkansas has seen unclose and personal the difference between the Democrats vision of a government that works and the Republican vision of working against governance. Hundreds of thousands of Arkansans are enjoying subsidized or free health insurance thanks to the ACA and Cotton would vote to gut that. This poll speaks volumes. Some will say it's an outlier and it well may be, however Pryor has been leading in all recent polling so this may just be a trend extending out.
While Kay Hagan's lead is slim with way too many undecided we have seen a lot of evidence that her probable Red opponents have very Akinesque tendencies. Yesterdays open letter from a GOP operative and former employee slamming Tillis is damning as much for it's motive as it is for it's content. Furthermore, look down to the bottom of the NYTimes poll summary. Generic congressional opinion in the state is 2% to the Democrats favor. This says, don't assume undecideds will go for the Republican challenger.
I don't read much into Mary Landieu's numbers because it is a free for all primary mix with no 1-1 match ups but look again at the generic congressional preference: Dems plus 1%.
Meanwhile, as I mentioned before about Kay Hagan's lead being slim and slippery, the slimest and slipperiest lead belongs to GOP Head Knob Washer (that is his official title right?) Mitch McConnell. How do you explain the 56th most powerful man in the Senate in such a cowering position... especially TO A GIRL. Besides her clear ability to kick his arse this may have something to do with it:
"A .22 should be perfect for hunting turtle"
The Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegross poll released Thursday evening found 32 percent of those surveyed said they approve of McConnell's job performance while 60 percent said they disapproved of the job the top Senate Republican has done. That rating is almost the same as Obama's approval rating in the state, which is 34 percent and his disapproval is about 60 percent.
We are going to find this November that 2010 was an aberration brought on by horrific economic disaster and a transformative change in the White House. People don't always react well to those inputs but time shows us patterns. Democrats have won 3 of the past 4 popular Congressional votes and 5 of the past 6 popular Presidential votes. Democratic values equal popular values time and time again. Despite irritating and irrational outliers (
I'm talking to you Ohio!) people vote their self-interests. Barack Obama is not on the ticket this year, the Democratic Party is and they will retain the Senate while taking the majority of the votes cast for the House.
Crossposted to Reinventing Your World