by Stephen Yellin
This is part of a series of daily articles that covers the run-up to the catastrophe of World War I in July 1914. The diplomatic crisis exactly 100 years ago was sparked by the murder of the main force for peace in the Austro-Hungarian Empire – Archduke Franz Ferdinand, together with his wife Sophie – by a Serbian terrorist. Backed by Germany’s offering of unconditional support in using force to retaliate against Serbia – the infamous “blank check” – the Viennese authorities began preparing a list of demands for the Serbian government to accept or face war. The demands were deliberately made to ensure war would occur.
The ultimatum was finally issued on July 23, 1914, over 3 weeks after the Archduke’s murder. The 12 days that followed are the focus of this series.
Feel free to refer to my list of important figures in keeping track of who's who.
Previous days:
Thursday, July 23rd - the fuse is lit
Friday, July 24th - "c'est la guerre europeene"
Saturday, July 25th - "we stand upon the edge of war"
Sunday, July 26th: “War is thought imminent. Wildest enthusiasm prevails.”
Yesterday saw the Austrian government break off diplomatic relations with Serbia and give the order for its armies to mobilize. With Serbia likewise preparing for war the other “Great Powers” scramble to prepare for the worst, even as some statesmen frantically try to snatch peace from the jaws of war.
Berlin
Even as the German government publically entertains the notion of a peace conference in London, it keeps up its effort to push Austria-Hungary to commence their attack before Russia, France and Great Britain can respond. The longer Vienna waits, the more likely Russia will intervene and thus force Germany to enter the fray. Foreign Secretary Jagow makes this clear to the Austrian ambassador, Count Szyogyeny in a meeting that morning. Szyogyeny promptly cables this message to Vienna.
Jagow then meets with Field Marshall Helmuth von Moltke (the Younger), Chief of Staff and field commander of the German army. (Kaiser Wilhelm is officially commander-in-chief.) Moltke, a habitual pessimist is convinced Germany must go to war this time, before growing Russian military might makes winning a European war impossible. Accordingly he presents Jagow with a draft for an ultimatum to Belgium.
Field Marshall Moltke
Why Belgium? The German war plan as envisioned by Moltke’s predecessor, Count von Schlieffen, calls for the bulk of the German army to cut across Belgium and Luxemburg, flanking the French armies along the German border and cutting them off from Paris. A swift victory in the West, just 40 days after mobilization, would then allow the German army to shift to the Russian frontier.
In order to do this, however, Moltke’s armies need to pass through neutral Belgium and use its railways. As such Germany will send an ultimatum to King Albert to force Belgium’s consent, or else the Germans will simply plow their way through Belgium en route to France.
With Germany’s “blank check” to Vienna having failed to produce a fait accompli, and with Chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg’s “localization” plan falling apart in light of Russian mobilization, Germany faces a critical choice: back Vienna and risk a European-wide war, or abandon its only reliable ally in Europe. Moltke and his fellow commanders will gladly take the first option, even as Bethmann begins scrambling for a way out of the crisis. Whether the Kaiser will do the same remains to be seen; the “all-highest warlord” makes landfall that evening and heads to the palace of Potsdam outside Berlin. Wilhelm will be back at work the next morning.
Vienna
Bethmann is not the only government leader to get a rude awakening that Sunday. In Vienna his counterpart, Count Leopold Berchtold receives Szyogyeny’s cable containing Berlin’s call for Austria-Hungary to declare war immediately. The German ambassador, Tschirschky repeats this demand, and Berchtold accordingly sends for the army’s commander, General Conrad von Hotzendorf.
Berchtold: We should like to deliver the declaration of war on Serbia as soon as possible so as to put an end to diverse influences. When do you want the declaration of war?
Conrad: Only when we have progressed far enough for operations to begin immediately – on approximately August 12.
Berchtold: The diplomatic solution will not hold as long as that.
General Conrad von Hotzendorf
Having made a commitment to Berlin for swift military action, Berchtold is shocked to find out he cannot keep it for a full 2 weeks.
That he was unaware of his army’s timetable for war is not unusual for 1914; every government’s civilians, as we shall see, are at least partially ignorant of the war plans of their generals. Instead of calling off the plan for declaring war on Serbia, however, Berchtold plays for time. He tells Tschirschky that Austria-Hungary will not declare war yet, but might do it soon if Serbia begins maneuvering its army on the Bosnian border.
This prevarication is not well-received at all by Bethmann and Jagow, let alone Moltke and the German high command. Yet the pressure on Berchtold to apply the brakes might have gone up further had he known of events in St. Petersburg that same day.
St. Petersburg
Even as Russian pre-mobilization plans continue to take place, Foreign Minister Sazanov receives a shock of his own. Russia’s Quartermaster General, who is responsible for the logistics of the army’s mobilization, returns to St. Petersburg and consults with Sazanov. Danilov tells the Foreign Minister that the government’s plan for “partial mobilization” against Austria-Hungary only is infeasible; there is way to do it without reducing the army to chaos, as all mobilization plans have been made in the expectation that Germany would mobilize to protect its ally. Sazanov, realizing his error, begins to look for a way to pull Russia back from the brink.
He starts by taking advantage of a chance meeting with the German ambassador, Pourtales. He tells Pourtales that Russia does not want a war; Pourtales says the same is true for Germany and urges Sazanov to open direct talks with Vienna to seek a peaceful solution. Sazanov immediately summons Ambassador Szapary and suggests revising the terms of the Austrian ultimatum so as to achieve Serbian compliance. He agrees that 7 of its 10 points can be accepted by Belgrade “without great difficulty”; as for those points rejected on the grounds they would violate Serbian sovereignty, Sazanov suggests Vienna could limit its role in the investigation of the Sarajevo murders to “consular intervention at legal proceedings”. Finally, he proposes that Great Britain or Italy mediate in any disagreement between Belgrade and Vienna during the inquiry.
Szapary, while unable to make a commitment on behalf of his government agrees to promptly inform Berchtold of the Russian’s offer. His cable to Vienna will only reach Berchtold the following evening, however; by the time Berchtold reads it, he will be facing far greater pressure from Berlin. Nor can Vienna trust Sazanov’s offer, as the reports of Russian army movements near its border make the threat of war seemingly imminent.
Certainly that is the view of the public and the press in Vienna. The British ambassador wires home to London, “War is thought imminent [here]. The wildest enthusiasm prevails.”
Paris
President Poincare and Prime Minister Viviani remain on board their ship home to Paris, leaving their colleagues forced to reckon with events on their own. War Minister Messimy, the leading civilian at this moment, summons the German ambassador to find out what Berlin intends to do in response to the crisis. The ambassador, having been left out of the loop by his government, insists he doesn’t know what Berlin will do. Messimy and his colleagues are skeptical.
Meanwhile, the French ambassador to Berlin, Jules Cambon warns Jagow that the British will not be neutral in the event of Germany going to war against France and Russia. Jagow ignores Cambon’s warning as both a bluff and irrelevant; Britain’s tiny army would make no difference in Germany’s plan to quickly crush France. As the Kaiser put it prior to 1914, “Dreadnoughts have no wheels”: the British Navy would be irrelevant in a continental war.
Gottlieb von Jagow
Even as Cambon meets with Jagow and Messimy attempts to find out Berlin’s intentions, a Parisian crowd burns the Hapsburg flag outside the Austrian embassy.
“We are getting ready to enter a tunnel full of blood and darkness,” despairs the eminent author Andre Gide.
London
As the storm gathers on the continent, most of the British government follows the tradition of going home to the country on Sunday. Foreign Secretary Grey is fly-fishing at home; First Lord of the Admiralty, Winston Churchill is at the beach with his family; even Prime Minister H.H. Asquith is away playing golf.
Winston Churchill prior to 1914
Not so is Grey’s deputy at the Foreign Officer, Sir Arthur Nicolson, who takes charge of Foreign Office in Grey’s absence. Nicholson, following Grey’s proposal for a 4-power conference in London to mediate between Vienna and St. Petersburg, meets with Germany’s ambassador to try and gain German consent. Ambassador Lichnowsky, an ardent Anglophile who can’t bear the thought of leaving his post in the event of war, readily agrees and passes on Grey’s proposal to Berlin. For the moment, however, Lichnowsky is ignored.
Prince Lichnowsky
Even as Asquith complains to his mistress that “Russia is trying to drag us in”, Britain takes its first step towards the brink. The British navy, having just completed its regular exercises is about to break up and head to its peacetime bases. Someone – possibly a reporter for the
Daily Mail – reaches Churchill and asks if the navy really intends to demobilize at a time of crisis.
From the beach, Churchill decides to keep the navy together in case war materializes; if the British navy is scattered then Germany’s could attack the English coast before the British can re-consolidate. He telephones his orders to the Admiralty’s and, having consulted with Grey, makes a public announcement of the order that evening.
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A full 24 hours has passed since Austria-Hungary formally severed ties with Serbia, yet war has yet to be declared. In St. Petersburg, Sazanov takes this as a hopeful sign that peace can be preserved. His hopes - assuming he means them - will be shattered in the days that follow.