After my first diary, I got a few words of encouragement from Polecat. How can you not trust a name like that?
In his comments, he said the following:
Brewer's admin is now in caretaker mode, the Democrats in AZ are in hiding, and the GOP crazies are trying to out-do each other.
I buy one and three, but not two.
Candidates for the four state wide offices have been very active. (I'm not throwing Corporation Commission in there. It's a very important office, but I'll end up writing a post that's way too long.) Their trouble is that only one has a primary. The advantage is that they can stay out of the silly string fight happening in so many Republican primaries, but the disadvantage is that the press loves covering the silly string fight.
Gubernatorial candidate Fred Duval is giving the appearance of sitting back and playing adult while the kids bicker, but he has also raised about $1.7 million dollars. Whoever limps out of the Republican primary will have to ramp up before competing with Duval in the money race. Bear in mind that that fundraising figure is from the June 30 report. He has since had a fundrasier that netted him over a million and I just got an e-mail that announced that George Takei will be making a visit to raise money for him. Warp One, Mr. Sulu.
Terry Goddard has been everywhere. He starts with a leg up due to name ID. The primary for Sec'y of State on the Republican side has turned into a bit of a snooze, with Wil Cardon all but dropping out (the second time he hasn't finished a state wide race) and Michelle Regan getting out maneuvered. Goddard has been laying out his campaign finance reform case well.
Felicia Rotellini came the closest of any statewide candidate to winning last time, and she hasn't really stopped campaigning. Her job will be easier if Republicans renominate Tom Horne on Tuesday. I know a lot of people think this is not likely, but I'd give him 50-50 odds of pulling it out.
Superintendent of Public Instruction candidate David Garcia is the only one that has a primary opponent, and, if I didn't know better, I'd think that he picked Sharon Thomas. My favorite part of a recent debate between the two of them is when Thomas says "we don't need policy" and talks about putting more resources in the classroom. Given that the SPI's constitutional task is setting policy and has little money they can spend on their own, it makes me wonder if Thomas read anything about the job.
I have friends who are Republican consultants (well, not good friends) who each name one or two of these folks as a possible winner. Garcia and Rotellini are the best shots, in their opinion. Both have troubled incumbents running on the Republican side, and the handicappers would probably not rate them as strongly should those incumbents lose their primaries. Garcia is probably the strongest shot, both because John Huppenthal has the better chance of the embattled incumbents to survive and because his campaign has been pretty strong. Rotellini is running a good campaign, but how it goes if Mark Brnovich beats Horne is a bit of a crap shoot.