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10:08 AM PT: NC-Sen: Rasmussen: Thom Tillis (R): 45, Kay Hagan (D-inc): 40 (May: 45-44 Tillis). Note that Rasmussen steadfastly refuses to include Libertarian Sean Haugh, who has been drawing an unusually large share of the vote.
10:29 AM PT: OR-Sen, -Gov: A new Oregon poll from SurveyUSA finds things holding steady in both of the state's marquee races this fall. On the Senate side, Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley maintaining a 52-33 lead on Republican Monica Wehby, little changed from his 50-32 advantage in June. The same is true for Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber, whose 48-36 lead on Republican Dennis Richardson has also barely budged from his prior 48-35 margin. Voters also support ballot measures legalizing marijuana, 51-42.
12:11 PM PT: AZ-Gov: In an unexpected move, outgoing Gov. Jan Brewer endorsed former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, a fellow Republican, as her preferred successor on Thursday. Smith is the most moderate of the many Republicans seeking their party's nomination, something that has probably hurt him in the GOP primary but would make him the most formidable option in the general election (at least according to an old PPP poll).
Smith has generally trailed in primary polling, but no clear frontrunner has emerged, and a new Magellan Strategies survey for the Arizona Automobile Dealers Association finds him trailing state Treasurer Doug Ducey just 23-21. A previous Magellan poll from early July had Ducey at 26 and Smith in third with just 14.
With less than three weeks left before the Aug. 26 election, Brewer's imprimatur could give Smith just enough of a boost to jump to the front of the fragmented field. But why did she pick him? According to one report in the Arizona Republic, a group of business leaders backing Smith won Brewer over by showing her ads attacking Smith for supporting Medicaid expansion—an effort Brewer herself led. So if Brewer's endorsement is about securing this part of her legacy, maybe it's not the most helpful thing in a GOP primary after all.
12:37 PM PT: MI-Sen, -Gov: We've got two new polls of the Michigan Senate race today. One is from Benenson Strategy Group for the League of Conservation Voters, which has endorsed Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and finds him leading Republican Terri Lynn Land 47-42. Mitchell Research, on the other hand, has Peters ahead just 45-44, a tighter result the 45-42 spread they gave him in June. In general, most polling has found a decent edge for Peters—typically around 5 to 6 points—so Benenson looks a lot closer to the mark.
Mitchell also has gubernatorial numbers, and these, too, are a touch more optimistic for the GOP than other pollsters have shown lately. Republican Gov. Rick Snyder leads Democrat Mark Schauer 47-42, basically unchanged from Snyder's 46-41 advantage in June. The HuffPo Pollster average (factoring in this latest poll) has Snyder up 46-43.
1:20 PM PT: MT-Sen: Democratic Sen. John Walsh, who was just appointed to the post earlier this year, has decided not to run for a full term this fall in the wake of a devastating plagiarism scandal unearthed by the New York Times. Walsh was already the decided underdog to Rep. Steve Daines, given Montana's traditionally red lean, but revelations that he plagiarized large portions of his 14-page master's thesis at Army War College made a difficult race nearly impossible.
Walsh will serve out the rest of his term, but Democrats must pick a new nominee at a party convention by Monday. A dream candidate would be ex-Gov. Brian Schweitzer, but he previously declined to run for this seat after Sen. Max Baucus announced his retirement. (Baucus later resigned to accept an ambassadorship to China, opening the way for Gov. Steve Bullock to tap Walsh, who was then his lieutenant governor, as a replacement.) Other possibilities include former NARAL president Nancy Keenan, EMILY's List president Stephanie Schriock, and former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger, who took 23 percent in the Democratic primary against Walsh earlier this year.
Whoever gets tapped won't have Walsh's baggage, but he or she will have precious little time—just three months—to put together a full-blown statewide campaign. And that person will be facing the same demographic challenges Walsh was. Montana Democrats have done an excellent job sailing against the prevailing winds for many years now, electing guys like Bullock and Sen. Jon Tester even as Republican presidential candidates regularly carry the state. But it looks like their luck may have finally run out, and John Walsh's quick fall hasn't helped matters.
1:45 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MA-Gov: The open seat gubernatorial race in the Bay State has usually been viewed as a tough Republican pickup opportunity, but Team Red may see a path here. A super PAC called "Commonwealth Future" is going on the air, praising Republican candidate Charlie Baker for his performance in then-Gov. Bill Weld's administration and for turning around Harvard Pilgrim Health Care.
Commonwealth Future is backed by the RGA and has some prominent Republicans financing it. Polls have constantly shown likely Democratic nominee Attorney General Martha Coakley leading Baker by varying margins, but with a significant amount of voters undecided. We'll see if the GOP is really committed to spending what it takes to win in this expensive and very blue state, but this is a sign that national Republicans think they have an opening.
1:52 PM PT: FL Redistricting: The GOP-controlled Florida legislature has released a proposed new congressional map to comply with the judicial ruling that struck down the current lines, and as expected, they've barely changed a thing. That's because the judge's decision was filled with plenty of anger and invective but actually found very little in the way of constitutional violations, which is why Republicans chose not to appeal. That should have been a warning sign to plaintiffs that they should have appealed, but it's evident now that the folks who've brought this suit just have no idea what they're doing.
Indeed, the abominable district at the center of the case, Florida's 5th, has hardly budged. Designed to absorb as many black (i.e., Democratic) voters as possible while snaking all the way from Orlando to Jacksonville, the 5th still does just that: Its black voting-age population dropped just 2 percent, from 50 to 48. And that's hard a barely perceptible impact on the bottom line. Obama carried this slightly revised 5th by a 69-31 margin, compared to 72-28 before. This means that the surrounding districts are essentially just as red as they've always been, by design.
The legislature still has to pass the new map, but given that the Senate and House are already in agreement, that's a foregone conclusion. Plaintiffs will be able to file objections, but only to the extent they believe the map does not comply with the judge's order. Given how narrow the ruling was, it'll be very hard to find any real problems with the new district boundaries. What a massive waste of time and effort.
2:01 PM PT: AZ-07: A new poll of the Aug. 26 Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Ed Pastor finds state Rep. Ruben Gallego still in the lead against Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox. The survey, commissioned by the PCCC and conducted by PPP, has Gallego up 41-31, with 27 percent undecided. It's PPP's first poll of the race, but a Lake Research internal for Gallego last month had him leading by a similar 32-24 margin. Wilcox has yet to release any polling data of her own.
2:04 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: American Crossroads spends $133,000 for Republican former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan.
• AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor defends himself on border security, while Crossroads GPS goes after him on Social Security and Medicare. The DSCC also spends $175,000 against Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, while Senate Majority PAC spends $260,000 against the congressman.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell once again hits Democratic rival Alison Lundergan Grimes on coal. The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition also spends $126,000 against Grimes, likely in support of an ad we recently highlighted.
• MI-Sen: Republican Terri Lynn Land goes after Democratic Rep. Gary Peters on border security, portraying him as a flip-flopper. Her evidence is two sound bites from Peters: In one, he declares "Clearly enforcement is very important," and in the other Peters says, "Immigration reform is not about more enforcement." It's not the strongest ad in the world, but at least you can say it's far from Land's worst spot.
• NC-Sen: EMILY's List hits Republican Thom Tillis for killing equal pay for women.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist touts his record on jobs and fighting powerful interests.
• NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez portrays Democrat Gary King as someone fine with raising other people's taxes while voting for perks for himself. The narrator mocks him by declaring, "it's good to be the king," which I doubt was even funny when Gary's father Bruce King was first governor in the early 1970s.
• PA-Gov: Democrat Tom Wolf talks about rebuilding manufacturing.
• RI-Gov: Democratic Treasurer Gina Raimondo describes her jobs plan.
• AR-02: Democrat Patrick Henry Hays airs his first ad, touting his successes as mayor of North Little Rock.
• IA-04: Democrat Jim Mowrer uses his military background to call for bipartisanship.
2:19 PM PT: IL-17: What is it with members (and former members) of Congress complaining about how little they earn? The latest is GOP ex-Rep. Bobby Schilling, who's seeking his old seat against Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos. In a recent interview, Schilling, who made $174,000 while serving in the House and still pulled down a healthy $100,000 last year in the private sector, complains that he's living hand-to-mouth:
"These increases, these are on our working poor, our middle class, hardworking taxpayers here across the United States of America. And now these folks are going to have to decide am I going to pay this premium or am I going to go buy some milk and groceries for the house. It's really getting tough for everyone. Everyone that I talk to, I don't hear them saying 'hey, I'm doing great'.
And the folks that are living paycheck-to-paycheck, which is most Americans, including myself, is that, you know, this is not something that you want to be putting out when you've got a kid that wants to play sports or you want to take a trip for vacation. Instead, you've got to funnel your money over to Obamacare, which is something you might never have to use."
Schilling joins a long list of congressional whiners, including Rep.
Sean Duffy, Rep.
Phil Gingrey, Rep.
Jim Moran, and Rep.
Steve Southerland, who've all complained about how painfully little they earn. That's only the most recent batch, though. There's a long tradition stretching back to the late ex-Rep. Fred Heineman,
who once infamously declared that a person making $80,000 a year was "lower middle class." Oh, the inhumanity!
But as Rich Miller points out, Schilling didn't just earn six figures last year—he also listed assets totaling between $254,000 and $660,000 dollars on his financial disclosure forms. What's more, his earnings were almost two-and-a-half times the median $42,500 income in his district.
And exactly what is Schilling complaining about here? The Affordable Care Act, which helps alleviate stress on lower-income Americans by giving them access to health insurance and, in most cases, generous subsidies to defray its cost. So yeah, by all means, let's get rid of a program designed to help folks who actually are living paycheck-to-paycheck. That'll help a lot, I'm sure.
2:42 PM PT: WI-Gov: Politico reports that the RGA has reserved $2.3 million in fall TV ad time on behalf of GOP Gov. Scott Walker, who's facing a very serious threat from Democrat Mary Burke. A pair of recent polls has shown a very close race.
2:45 PM PT: FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist put together his best fundraising month to date in July, taking in $3.5 million, but Gov. Rick Scott and various GOP entitites (including the Republican Party of Florida) utterly dwarfed that haul, with a combined $11 million raised.
3:35 PM PT: No Schweitzer:
I respectfully decline to seek the Senate nomination. Many thanks to John Walsh & I'll support whoever the next nominee turns out to be.
— @brianschweitzer