Some Progressives have found the news at 538 so discouraging they have stopped looking at it. But the news at 538 isn't discouraging for Democrats any more.
Senate Update: Democrats Draw Almost Even. Is It The Money?
By Nate Silver
When we officially launched our forecast model two weeks ago, it had Republicans with a 64 percent chance of taking over the Senate after this fall’s elections. Now Republican chances are about 55 percent instead.
But this Senate race is pretty darned close.
That's a remarkable shift in the space of two weeks!
Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.
It might help to break the states down into several groups:
Republican defenses (Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky). These are the three Republican-held seats where Democrats have some chance for a pickup. Democrats got good news in Kansas two weeks ago when their own candidate, Chad Taylor, ceased his campaign in the state — improving the odds for the center-left independent candidate, Greg Orman. Orman, however, is a slight underdog against the Republican incumbent Pat Roberts, and Orman isn’t certain to caucus with Democrats if he wins. Meanwhile, Democrats’ odds have declined somewhat in Georgia and Kentucky. Taken as a group then, these states have not produced much change in the overall forecast.
Republican path of least resistance states (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia)...
Highly competitive purple states (Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina). These are the five competitive Senate races — all seats are currently held by Democrats — in states generally considered presidential swing states. It’s here where Democrats have gained ground. There have been numerous recent polls in North Carolina, including two released on Monday, showing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan ahead. Her odds of holding her seat have improved to 68 percent from 46 percent when the model launched. Colorado has followed a similar path, with Democratic Sen. Mark Udall’s chances of keeping his seat improving to 69 percent from 47 percent. Democrats have also made smaller gains in Iowa and Michigan. New Hampshire has been an exception. The model isn’t buying that the race is tied, as a CNN poll implied Monday, but it does have Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s chances falling from 81 percent to 75 percent.
Republican reaches (Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, Virginia)...
Silver notes that most of the Democratic gains were in purple states, and that runs contrary to a Republican advantage in generic polls of congressional preferences. He also points to the fact that Republican leaning PACs are being slightly outspent by Democratic leaning PACs unlike the 2010 midterms when Republican leaning PACs had a substancial advantage. The Tea Party's influence over the GOP is so toxic
it has driven Big Business donors into the arms of Democratic Candidates.
Whatever the reason, the GOP’s path to a Senate majority is less robust than before. They still look pretty good in the “path of least resistance” states. But while West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota are extremely likely pickups, Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana are not sure things. Meanwhile, Republicans have fewer top-tier backup options, as states like North Carolina and Colorado have trended away from them. Republicans may need to decide whether to consolidate their resources. It won’t help them if they lose each of Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina by a couple of percentage points — and in the process blow a state like Arkansas.
Also see David Nir's post on a new Kanasa poll released since Nate Silver wrote this piece:
PPP's new Kansas poll shows Pat Roberts trailing big-time in Kansas
This is very encouraging news for Democrats! But it shows we've got our work cut out for us in states like Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, Kansas, Georgia and Kentucky.