Bob Beauprez (R. CO) & Cory Gardner (R. CO). Don't believe the hype from Quinnipac.
Ok, so Quinnipac released their Colorado Governor poll yesterday and they have good news for the GOP:
http://www.denverpost.com/...
Coloradans are showing signs they are open to the idea of unseating an elected governor for the first time in 52 years, as one new poll shows a close race and another gives the challenger the edge.
Gov. John Hickenlooper appeared impermeable six months ago, but as the race enters the final weeks Republican Bob Beauprez, a former congressman, is keeping pace even as he gets outspent on television advertising.
"For the first time in his political life, (Hickenlooper) is in a fight for his political life," said Eric Sondermann, an independent political analyst. "He has never been in the kind of head-on-head, flip-a-coin kind of battle."
A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesdays rattled the Colorado political landscape when it reported Beauprez held a 10-point lead against Hickenlooper — 50 percent to 40 percent — in what most consider a deadlocked race. The numbers gave a quick fundraising boost for Beauprez, the campaign said, but another poll released hours later tempered any suggestion of a GOP surge.
That USA Today/Suffolk University survey, conducted Saturday through Tuesday, gave Hickenlooper a two-point edge against Beauprez, 43 percent to 41 percent, a statistical tie within the 4.4 percent margin of error.
The results aligned with a Denver Post/SurveyUSA poll of likely voters conducted last week that showed Hickenlooper at 45 percent and Beauprez at 43 percent, again a dead heat within the 3.9 percent margin of error.
Another early September poll from NBC News/Marist poll also found a close race with Hickenlooper at 43 percent and Beauprez at 39 percent, a 4-point lead just outside the margins.
The Quinnipiac poll is the outlier, but taken together the surveys indicate voters are at least considering their options, observers say. - Denver Post, 9/17/14
And today Quinnipac released their Colorado Senate poll showing good news for the GOP:
http://www.denverpost.com/...
A new poll by Quinnipiac University has Republican Cory Gardner ahead of Democrat Mark Udall by a striking 8 percentage points in their race for U.S. Senate — the challenger's largest lead to-date among public polls.
The survey of more than 1,200 likely Colorado voters favored Gardner 48 to 40 percent to the incumbent Udall, with independent, or unaffiliated, candidate Steve Shogan taking home 8 percent.
"U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, for now, is in the driver's seat in a race with national importance," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a statement accompanying the findings made public Thursday.
The results add to string of recent voter surveys that have tried to capture the volatile nature of Colorado's Senate race, as well as its competitive fight for governor.
Quinnipiac's findings depart significantly from a Denver Post poll conducted last week that found Udall leading Gardner by 4 percentage points.
Similarly, Gardner's biggest advantage over Udall before the latest Quinnipiac results was 2 percentage points, according to a tally of more than dozen polls of both likely and registered voters recorded by Real Clear Politics. Other recent polls have shown the Udall and Gardner in a statistical tie or even a Udall advantage.
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac unveiled a related poll that gave Republican Bob Beauprez a 10-point lead over Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper, a margin that represents Beauprez's largest lead so far, according to a slate of polls compiled by the website Real Clear Politics.
Prior to Wednesday's release, Beauprez biggest lead was 1 percentage point, even among other polls of likely voters. Most recent polls have shown the two gubernatorial candidates within the margin of error.
In both of its polls this week, Quinnipiac relied on the same 1,211 likely Colorado voters contacted between Sept. 10 and Sept. 15. - Denver Post, 9/18/14
The Denver Post points out that Udall's lead with female voters is only by three points which is hard to believe given the attack ads Udall has been using to hit Gardner on his support for Personhood. So clearly, Quinnipac is way off here. In fact, Myers Research gives Udall a two point lead over Gardner:
http://www.scribd.com/...
And Suffolk University shows a statistical tie between Udall and Gardner and gives Hickenlooper a two point lead over Beauprez:
http://www.usatoday.com/...
In Colorado, the state where Barack Obama was first nominated for the White House, he has emerged as a drag on the re-election prospects of Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and Gov. John Hickenlooper, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds.
The survey shows Udall at 42%, Republican challenger Cory Gardner at 43% in what is essentially a tie. The poll of 500 likely voters, taken Saturday through Tuesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The governor's race also is too close to call: Hickenlooper is at 43%, Republican challenger Bob Beauprez at 41%. - USA Today, 9/17/14
Now Quinnipac, which is based out of Connecticut, has a better track record with Northeastern territory. Their polling on the Pennsylvania Governor's race has been consistent with every other poll showing Tom Wolf (D. PA) with a huge double digit lead over Tea Party Governor Tom Corbett (R. PA). But Slate's David Weigel puts a few things in perspective here:
http://www.slate.com/...
Throat duly cleared, I will now ask what's up with the Quinnipiac poll of Colorado. Most surveys have shown Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, who's been running an aggressive prevent defense against Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, narrowly ahead. Quinnipiac has Gardner up 48–40, making a Udall comeback look almost impossible; out of nowhere, Gardner's soared to a +10 favorable rating while Udall is gurgling under the waves at -8. The two candidates are tied among female voters. The optimistic Republican can look at this and say that Gardner's attempt to reframe the abortion issue by promising over-the-counter access to oral contraception has driven a sword through the "war on women" meme.
But man, those crosstabs! Quinnipiac's demographic base was 80 percent white, 9 percent "other/don't know," 8 percent Latino, and 3 percent black. That's anticipating a lower Latino share of the electorate than even in the Tea Party year of 2010, when Latino voters were 12 percent of the total. In 2012, Latinos made up 14 percent of the electorate. And in both years, pollsters generally underrated the total Democratic vote in Colorado by 4 points. Quinnipiac's final 2012 poll of the state had Romney up 1; he lost by 5.
Could Quinnipiac be doing the same thing? Well, it's mid-September, and I don't know. I do know that the last Q-poll of Colorado, which had Gardner up by only 1, anticipated a 13 percent Latino electorate. Since then, the Obama administration has announced that any decision on deferring more deportations of illegal immigrants will be held until after the midterms. It is possible that Gardner's campaign has cracked the "war on women," which would surprise all the women pointing out how unsatisfying "we'll repeal Obamacare and let you spend your paycheck on the pill" is as a message. It is possible that Latino voters have taken some punditocracy advice and decided to sit out the election. Whatever the case, it's always worth checking the demographic crosstabs—unskewing be damned. - Slate, 9/18/14
So yeah, Quinnipac isn't very reliable when it comes to Colorado. Plus the LV model isn't always the most reliable model as RCP clearly shows from the 2010 Colorado U.S. Senate race:
Now as I said before, I'm not going to rely on Quinnipac when it comes to polling Colorado. Now when it comes to the Governor's race in Quinnipac's home state of Connecticut, I'm willing to believe their polling a little more:
http://www.courant.com/...
Republican Tom Foley leads Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy by 6 percentage points among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning.
Voters say they believe that Foley, a businessman from Greenwich making his second run for governor, would do a better job handling the state's economy and creating jobs, which were cited by poll respondents as the top issues facing Connecticut.
Foley's whopping 82 percent to 9 percent lead among Republicans is bolstered by a 48 percent to 35 percent edge among unaffiliated voters, who make up the bulk of Connecticut's electorate. Malloy gets 77 percent of the Democratic vote, the poll found.
Malloy's high unfavorable rating presents a challenge for the governor, said poll director Douglas Schwartz. Fifty-three percent of voters said they had an unfavorable opinion of Malloy, compared with 33 percent who said they had an unfavorable view of Foley.
"Those are high negatives, when 53 percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent, someone they've known now for four years,'' Schwartz said at a press conference at the state Capitol.
But there's a sliver of good news for Malloy: Six percent of voters say they are undecided and 30 percent say they could change their mind in the eight weeks remaining before Election Day.
And about one-quarter of those polled said they did not know enough about Foley to form an opinion, giving the Malloy campaign plenty of room to define the governor's opponent in a negative light. Also, 62 percent of Foley's supporters said their vote is mainly an anti-Malloy vote, not a pro-Foley one. - Hartford Courant, 9/10/14
But even with that race, they still missed it:
http://www.ctpost.com/...
During their first election campaign four years ago, Malloy led Foley in a mid-September poll 50-41 percent among likely voters. By Oct. 26 of that year, Malloy's lead was 48-43 percent, which all but disappeared in the few days before the election, when the Quinnipiac poll declared the race too close to call, with Foley projected with a 48-45 margin of victory. - CT Post, 9/10/14
I'm also skeptical about their recent numbers out of Iowa:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/...
Republican Joni Ernst leads Democrat Bruce Braley 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in Iowa, according to a new poll.
It's the largest split found in any survey so far in a general election race that has been agonizingly close. Ernst, a state senator and military commander, and Braley, a congressman and lawyer, are vying to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin. The vote is Nov. 4.
The RealClearPolitics.com rolling average of polls that includes the Quinnipiac University poll, released this morning, shows the race still deadlocked.
The new poll found that Ernst wins with independent voters, 50 percent to 43 percent over Braley. Independents make up 33 percent of Iowa's registered voters and are a crucial bloc of voters here.
The Sept. 10-15 poll surveyed 1,167 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. - Des Moines Register, 9/17/14
CNN shows a different story:
http://www.cnn.com/...
Only one percentage points separates Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst in the race to represent Iowa in the U.S. Senate.
If the election were held today, 49% of likely Iowa voters say they would vote for Braley and 48% say they would support Ernst, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. That means the contentious race is within the survey's overall sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The electorate is far from solidified. Twenty percent of likely voters polled in Iowa said they could change their mind before Election Day in November.
The two candidates are basically flipped with likely male and female voters: Braley is winning 41% of men and 57% of women, while Ernst is winning 56% of men and 41% of women.
The CNN/ORC poll was conducted September 8-10, with 1,013 Iowa adults -- 608 likely voters -- questioned by telephone. - CNN, 9/12/14
So yeah, Quinnipac is on track for being wrong in the end. But that doesn't mean the races in Colorado, Iowa and Connecticut aren't close. In fact, these are three big states where Tea Blue can win but the base has to come out to the polls. With that said, please do contribute and donate to Hickenlooper, Udall, Malloy and Braley's campaigns:
http://www.hickenlooperforcolorado.com/...
http://markudall.com/
http://www.danmalloy2014.com/
http://www.brucebraley.com/