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CA-Sen: In the last few days a number of potential Senate candidates have made their intentions more clear. On the Democratic side, billionaire Tom Steyer will
reportedly make a decision on whether or not to run within days. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has made it no secret over the last few years that he's planning to run for statewide office, and on Saturday
he announced that he will "seriously consider looking at running for California's open Senate seat." Only a few weeks ago Villaraigosa indicated that he was
much more likely to run for governor in 2018, but he appears to be very serious about a Senate bid this cycle. However, Rep. Jared Huffman has
declined to run.
Two of the state Democratic Party's biggest heavyweights, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Kamala Harris, have publicly said little about their intentions. However, it's a very good bet that only one of them will run this cycle. As the Washington Post has noted, Newsom and Harris are close politically and friendly to one another, and one of them will likely decide to wait until 2018 rather than run against the other. But Buzzfeed's Ruby Cramer reports that neither San Franciscan is sure what to do, and the two have not even spoken directly to one another since Boxer's announcement. Cramer also tells us that both camps agree that a decision will need to be made within the week, but it's anyone's guess what will happen.
For the GOP, sophomore Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, who hails from the San Diego area, is also reportedly considering jumping in. Chavez is not well-known statewide, but the national GOP would be excited about having a Hispanic veteran as their standard-bearer in a high profile race. Former Rep. David Dreier has been asked about a run but hasn't said anything about his plans, so he's worth keeping an eye on. Tom Campbell, a former congressman who has run for Senate three times, doesn't seem incredibly interested though. Campbell said he doesn't anticipate another run: Not a no, but not a sign that he's likely to jump in. We do have definite no from 2010 nominee Carly Fiorina, who will focus on her likely presidential bid instead. (Jeff Singer)
• NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan got some expected but still very good news on Saturday. Donovan received the endorsement of the Staten Island Republican Party, which essentially secures him the Republican nomination. In New York county party committees pick the special election nominees, with votes being weighed by the number of committee members and registered party voters. The Brooklyn Republican Party also has a say in the process and is likely to back Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis, who has not officially entered the race. But since Staten Island holds a much larger proportion of the vote, it's incredibly hard to see Malliotakis emerging with the nomination. (Jeff Singer)
8:41 AM PT (dreaminonempty): Votes:
(click to enlarge)
The year 2015 is off to an interesting start in Congress, with two votes on key topics that let us see what stuff our current Democratic congresscritters are made of.
On the left are Democratic House members who voted for the Republican bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.
On the right is the list of House Democrats who voted for another Republican bill, this one full of provisions intended to weaken Dodd-Frank, the Wall Street reform legislation Democrats passed just a few years ago
And in the middle are the real winners: Democratic members of Congress who voted for both pieces of legislation. David Jarman recently took a look at each of these groups and found some patterns, though there were some surprises.
9:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Harry Reid is raising money and hiring staff for a 2016 re-election campaign, but not everyone is convinced he'll actually run again. Politico reports that plenty of Senate Democrats and even some of his closest allies think he'll call it quits instead. Reid's wife and daughter recently survived serious health problems and Reid himself suffered a major injury only weeks ago. Additionally, there's plenty of unhappiness with the minority leader within the Democratic caucus. With the GOP planning to make him a major target, it's not unreasonable to assume that Reid will decide another grueling campaign just isn't worth it.
Still, Reid seems to be heading for 2016 at maximum warp. It is possible that this is just a bluff: Jon Ralston has speculated that Reid may want to wait until the last possible moment before announcing a retirement in order to help his ally former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto avoid a serious primary challenge. But in all likelihood Reid is at least intending to run for another term, and he wants to prepare early for the expected GOP onslaught.
9:12 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Meet Daniel Donovan, the all-but-official Republican nominee:
Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan, who handled the Eric Garner chokehold case, said Sunday he hopes Democrats won't make the case an issue as he runs for a vacated congressional seat.
"I would hope that they would respect the fact that there was a man who died, a mother who lost her son and there's a wife who lost her husband and some children who lost their dad," Donovan said on a radio talk show hosted by former mayoral candidate John Catsimatidis.
9:21 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: On Monday, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill announced that she would not run for governor in 2016. Instead, she'll stay in the Senate, where she'll be up for re-election in 2018. McCaskill's decision is a boon to Attorney General Chris Koster, who has been unofficially running for governor for a while and is the clear Democratic frontrunner.
9:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: On Monday, Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that he would not run for Barbara Boxer's open Senate seat. It looks likely that Attorney General Kamala Harris will jump in instead: The two San Franciscans had an implicit agreement that they would not run against one another, and the two camps spent the weekend weighing their options. However, Harris will not have the field to herself, with plenty of prominent Democrats openly considering a run. We also haven't heard the last from Newsom: He looks set to run for governor in 2018 when incumbent Jerry Brown is termed out.
9:50 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-01: It seems that Republican Rep. Frank Guinta just can't escape the ghosts of campaigns past. Back in 2010 he loaned himself anywhere between $245,000 and $355,000, which would normally be pretty standard stuff. The problem is that Guinta had nowhere near that kind of money available, and few people bought his excuse that he just forgot to disclose a bank account worth between $250,000 and $500,000. And unfortunately for Guinta the FEC is also skeptical, since they just confirmed that they're still investigating him. This story wasn't enough to keep him from winning this swing seat in 2014, but we'll see what unfolds this time around.
10:03 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN: Even Lee Terry can find a place in K-Street's warm embrace. The former Republican representative embarrassing lost his Rommey 53-46 seat in the midst of the red wave, but he still got a cushy post as a "senior adviser on government relations" at a D.C. law firm.
10:26 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ME-02: National Democrats have made it no secret that they're hoping to recruit Emily Cain for another bid against Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin in this light blue seat. Cain isn't the only Democrat looking running though. House Majority Leader Jeff McCabe said back in December that he's thinking about it, and Michael Shepherd of the Kennebec Journal gives us two new names.
Bangor city Councilors Joe Baldacci and Ben Sprague both say they are being encouraged to jump in, and neither is ruling it out. Sprague was an independent until December but Baldacci comes from a familiar Democratic family: His brother is John Baldacci, who represented this district before serving as governor.
10:44 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: Things are also in motion on the Republican side. State Auditor Tom Schweich gave himself a short time frame to decide, saying "I think you’ll probably know something by Valentine’s Day." Personally I can think of nothing more romantic than heart candies, a nice dinner, and waiting for gubernatorial announcements.
Former state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway is already running and is getting more than her share of financial support from wealthy conservative Rex Sinquefield, so it makes sense for Schweich to decide sooner rather than later. Other potential GOP candidates include 2012 Senate candidate John Brunner, former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens, and Rep. Blaine Leutkemeyer.
10:52 AM PT (David Jarman): Philadelphia mayor: City council president Darrell Clarke took himself out of the running in the open race for Philadelphia's mayor, instead saying he'll run again for his current job. That may re-open the door for city controller Alan Butkovitz, who surprised observers by deciding in November not to run, but at the time said that he was deferring to Clarke.
11:39 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MO-Gov: The DGA is hoping to cement Koster's status as presumptive nominee now that McCaskill has declined to run. The committee released a statement praising the two of them, and made no mention of any other Show Me State Democrats.
12:39 PM PT (David Jarman): Philadelphia mayor: If you're feeling a little underwhelmed by the choices so far in the Philadelphia race — with state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams a charter school shill and ex-DA Lynne Abraham basically just wanting you to get off her lawn — you're not alone. A Philadelphia magazine article from Sunday (before Clarke's demurral) looks at organized labor's slim pickings here: they'd viewed Clarke as their last hope of coalescing behind one candidate or even electing an ally. Unless Butkovitz decides to reverse course, or city councilor James Kenney gets in, they've got nothing, and some unions (carpenters, Teamsters) have already grudgingly gotten behind Williams.
1:16 PM PT: NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Peter Lopez, whose name appeared on our initial list of candidates who could replace retiring GOP Rep. Chris Gibson, announced on Monday that he is indeed looking at a congressional bid. Lopez seems to be the first to actually declare his interest, but there are a ton of other would-be contenders, and Republicans have a strong bench in this swingy district.
1:24 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan essentially won the Republican nomination Saturday, when he earned the endorsement of the Richmond County party. Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis very much wanted to run for this seat but she saw the writing on the wall and on Monday she announced she would stay out of the contest. There wasn't much of a chance that Malliotakis would be able to get on a different ballot line and cause trouble for Donovan and it's a moot point in any case, with her pledging to back the GOP nominee.
1:33 PM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-02: Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah has been in legal hot water for a while, with prosecutors accusing him of using federal money to illegally pay off his campaign debts from his 2007 mayoral campaign. Things aren't looking much better for him, with the feds now asking for seven years worth of his emails.
Fattah looks unlikely to resign barring a conviction, and that may be a while in the future if it happens at all. This Philadelphia-based seat is as safe as it gets for the blue team, backing Obama 90-9. If there is a special election the area's ward leaders would select the nominee, who would have no problem winning the general. So far no one credible looks like they're gearing up to primary Fattah, though this whole situation is worth keeping an eye on.
1:38 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WI-01: On Monday, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan ruled out a White House bid. Ryan just became Ways and Means Committee chairman and looks set to stay in the House for a long time. The Romney/ Ryan ticket won this seat 52-47 in 2012 and Democrats probably would have taken a look at targeting it if Ryan had pursued a White House bid (though he could have run for both offices at once), but it will be tough to find anyone willing to take on the very well-funded incumbent now.
2:16 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Sophomore Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is dipping his feet in the water though. His campaign consultant says he will probably decide by the end of January whether or not to run. Swalwell represents a safely blue 68-30 Obama East Bay seat.
2:25 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Swalwell's camp also says that they think the 34-year old congressman can appeal to young voters now that Newsom is out. Swalwell is also looking whether he can raise the $20 million he thinks he'll need for the primary.
3:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Democratic Treasurer John Chiang's camp also confirmed on Monday that he's thinking about a run. While Chiang was just elected treasurer in November, he served as controller for the last eight years and he has been touted for higher office for a while.
3:49 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: A source close to Democratic Secretary of State Alex Padilla tells the Los Angeles Times that he's not ruling out a Senate bid, but does note that Padilla only just won statewide office for the first time last year.
5:06 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Kamala Harris will reportedly announce her Senate campaign on Tuesday.