Scott Walker (R-WI) is running for President. He's not "exploring" or "considering" anything. I've seen a great deal of talk dismissing his candidacy and not taking him seriously.
As a native Wisconsinite, I've seen first-hand the damage Walker can do. Hailing from Milwaukee, where Walker served as County Executive, I know his political and governing style very well.
Not only is Scott Walker a serious candidate for the Republican nomination for President, we have to consider the possibility that something may happen in 2016 that puts the GOP candidate (whoever that may be) in a better position to win than they appear to be today. While I agree in theory that Walker is a weak general election candidate, I don't think he is as weak as some suggest, and a quirk of fate of fate could change the dynamic of the election that we see this far out. Stopping Scott Walker from coming anywhere near the Presidency should be something that all progressives take deadly seriously.
Follow below the fold to find out why.
First of all, we can dispense with the obvious. Walker is a dolt with a terrible economic record as Governor and the apparent political charisma of a wet blanket. He has an annoying speaking voice (and I usually quite like Wisconsin accents), is mired in corruption, and he has a dead look in his eyes that creeps people out. He lies, and is caught in lies, frequently about everything from big (like the "drafting error" that struck at the heart of the mission that has guided the University of Wisconsin system for over 100 years) to the absolutely meaninglessly small (like blaming bumping his head on a cabinet door for his bald spot).
Politically, ethically, economically, cosmetically- he is completely unfit for the Presidency and on paper would appear to be a terrible candidate. But I think that today he should be considered the favorite for the Republican nomination. There are a couple of reasons why.
Business, Religious, and Tea Party
More than any other candidate currently likely to run, Scott Walker embodies and exemplifies a union of the three major wings that make up the Republican Party. Despite the inherent contradictions it implies, he successfully straddles the lines to appeal to all these groups without alienating any.
He is rightfully viewed as someone with slavish devotion to the Koch-types and ALEC, and has been rewarded for that loyalty. He not only pays lip-service to that agenda, but has actively and successfully (depending on your definition of that word) pushed it through in a moderate state. Scott Walker is absolutely credible as an establishment candidate, and has the ties to the big money and national party leaders to prove it. Walker has turned a state with a long history of bipartisan commitment to environmental and conservation ideals into a land where open pit mines blasted into some of our most beautiful land and frac-sand mines in people's back yards are a real possibility and reality in some cases.
He is also well-beloved by conservative Christians in the state, and with good reason. Walker's attacks on women's choice and women's health in general have been as aggressive as just about any other Republican in the country, but have flown under the radar because of the other big moves he has made. While he has seen the futility of fighting the court case that struck down Wisconsin's marriage ban, he still has a long and vicious history of being anti-LGTBQ. Furthermore, as the son of a preacher, Walker has a compelling story to tell to these folks about how this ol' minister's boy could rise up to be the most powerful man in the world because of God's grace and plan for him. The religious right will have absolutely no reason not to love Scott Walker.
Scott Walker is also a darling of the tea party. He's slashed taxes and attacked public employees. He's passed concealed carry laws and fought any and all firearm regulations even in the wake of a horrific shooting in Milwaukee County in 2012. He's pumped up by local talk radio, he pisses off "the liberals," and has consistently beaten back our attempts to stop him and his agenda. Scott Walker and the tea party fit together like a glove.
If the Kochs and other big money folks decide that Walker is a good vessel for their agenda, he is not going to have problems with the base OR the establishment that someone like Romney or Bush saw. The fact that he's viewed by many as a relative moderate in the pack should be alarming to anyone who knows what he's really about.
And even if the establishment picks Bush as their standard bearer, Walker is less likely to have the issues coalescing the base around him that any of the two-week frontrunners from 2012 had. Scott Walker is not Michele Bachmann or Rick Santorum.
He's Teflon
Scott Walker is surrounded by corruption. He's basically nailed to the wall in the Ron Paul trap- either he is involved in the corruption or he is so incompetent as to have no idea what was going on around him and being done in his name and on his behalf. Either one should be a disqualifying factor.
But we knew some of this in 2010. We knew a great deal more in 2012. And we knew a lot in 2014, and none of it touched him. Walker spun and ducked, and made people believe that the investigations into his illegal campaign coordination were a personal political vendetta while attacking the wife of the one heading up the investigation. Those waiting for the other shoe to drop in the investigation were constantly disappointed in how Walker escaped any political fallout from major revelations.
Walker also has a terrible record during his time in office. Job creation has lagged the nation and the region. Despite his grandiose claims of "fixing" a budget deficit coming into office, we come into the new year with continuing major deficits and Walker taking out huge loans to cover road spending. He denied money for the Medicaid expansion in the state despite a strong majority thinking we should take them. He has had a first term marked by division, unrest, and weak economic numbers. But he has not lost support, doing about equally well in all three elections.
If Wisconsin Republicans and even moderates don't care about Walker's shortcomings in office, do we really expect Iowa caucus goers to put the reality of his record ahead of the political spin he's already feeding them? If Wisconsin voters don't care that he's been caught lying about deficits and surpluses, do we think that South Carolina Republicans are going to call him out on it? If he's able to spin the party in his own state that knows him best and sees his policies first hand, is he going to have that much trouble winning with conservative voters elsewhere?
Yes, I understand that the national media is not going to be complicit with Walker in the same way that our local media has been. But Walker's successfully parlayed even the slightest bit of accountability from the media into a political asset as the "liberal media" tries to destroy him. His supporters decry the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which endorsed him for Governor two times and regularly publishes his talking points and spin as the news, as a liberal paper attacking him. They think it is proof that he's a good conservative and everything is working great.
Sure, the attacks might stick better once they're coming from other Republicans. But the Republican nomination won't go to the candidate with the least baggage because they're all terrifically bad people. It is going to go to the person who can twist those attacks into a political asset, something Walker has been remarkably good at thus far in his career.
He Excites People
I don't know what it is. He isn't a particularly gifted speaker. He's not a young and attractive candidate with a great smile. In person he doesn't have the qualities of a great retail politician. But people don't just support him. They LOVE him. He fires up Republican voters in Wisconsin in a major way. Of his three statewide elections, the highest turnout was in the recall, and that is the election where he performed the best. Increased turnout over 2010 was actually to Walker's benefit, contrary to the conventional wisdom that increased turnout is good for Dems. Maybe it is because he is viewed as a fighter. Maybe it is because he "gets things done." Whatever it is, Scott Walker is not Tim Pawlenty. He didn't just have big money in 2014. The Republicans had a substantial ground game, fueled largely by volunteers. People still have their Stand with Walker signs displayed proudly on their lawns.
Beyond that, there might be a sizable constituency in 2016 for a more "boring" candidate. We know what Republicans will be saying if Hillary remains the likely nominee. Obama only won because he was black. Hillary's only qualification is that she's a woman. Obama made good speeches and ruined the country. Walker is a humble midwestern fella who gets things done. If he can combine that image with the broader public with the inexplicable excitement he gives Republican base voters it could be a dangerous and potent combination.
Bottom Line
Scott Walker isn't a joke. He's a threat. He isn't a creature of Washington running as an outsider like Newt Gingrich. He isn't as undisciplined as Sarah Palin. He's current, he's fresh, Republicans seem willing to forgive him a great deal, and he gets their juices flowing.
He isn't as boring as Tim Pawlenty, he doesn't have the baggage or the name that Bush has. Big money is willing to make big investments in him.
Yes, the national spotlight is harsh. Yes, he has already made mistakes and will make more. Yes, foreign policy is completely, well, foreign to him.But he is for real. If he has the money and the base behind him, he can win the nomination. If he wins the nomination, I think he is as likely as any other Republican to win the White House (which is to say, not that likely but it isn't out of the realm of possibility). Scott Walker has shown a willingness to push a radical political agenda no matter who it might hurt, and to avoid paying a political price for it.
He is not Herman Cain, he is not Rick Perry.
But he thinks he is Ronald Reagan. And he just might be George W. Bush. And they were sorely underestimated to the detriment of the country, too.