In no particular order, here are some sober predictions for the immediate future.
1. President Obama will announce that alien life has been detected. Before he leaves office, with proper preparation of the public, he will let Americans know that we are not alone.
2. The GOP will have an upheaval in its leadership. The TeaBuggers will continue to dig in their heels on every issue, the few moderates left will be embarrassed by the behavior of their own party, and Boehner and McConnell will become even more estranged. Eventually, one or the other will be pushed out.
3. Rahm will win re-election, possibly by a large margin. What is surprising is how disliked and unloved Rahm is. In fact, people not only don't like him, distrust him, and are tired of him, some actively hate him. But the fact is, Chicago has 3,000,000 people, multiple issues are constantly rearing their ugly heads, and now, the city budget just got kicked in the teeth by Rahm's close friend, Gov. Rauner. (Seriously, they are close friends - they both made their vast riches in the same industry)
4. Austerity in Europe will come to an end. Even though Germany apparently hoodwinked Alexis Tsipras, eventually Italy, Spain, perhaps a few other states will begin to rebel against a policy that promised much, but delivered little other than misery, unemployment, and a virtual depression.
5. Putin will die a mysterious death. Whether one of his former billionaire buddies puts out a contract on him, or whether the KGB realizes that he is going insane and poses a danger to the world, he will not last two more years. Perhaps while he is wrestling a rhino in africa, some shark with very bad taste takes his head off. Whatever the cause, and whoever is behind it, Putin won't last.
More musings, and serious amusings below the orange yarn:
1. Alien contact. If it happens, we can assume several things:
a. Their mental powers are greater than ours.
b. Their technology is vastly superior to ours.
c. They may view us not as individual beings worthy of some relationship, but more like a rabid dog whose rabies can be fatal to them if we are left unchecked.
d. If against all odds they are benevolent, and not so alien as to be completely misunderstood by us, they still may hold back on any serious contact, mainly because they realize how a primitive society like ours would respond to exposure to a much higher civilization - and what it would do to the stability and structure of our world.
In 1960, after being commissioned to study ET and alien contact, the Brookings Institute created a report, which with great fanfare and creativity was named "The Brookings Report." It contains many incredible and far-reaching gems, like this one:
"The positions of the major American religious denominations, the Christian sects, and the Eastern religions on the matter of extraterrestrial life need elucidation. Consider the following: 'The Fundamentalist (and anti-science) sects are growing apace around the world . . . For them, the discovery of other life -- rather than any other space product -- would be electrifying. . . . some scattered studies need to be made both in their home centers and churches and their missions, in relation to attitudes about space activities and extraterrestrial life.'"
Heh, and here I thought that TeaBuggery, Oklahoman ejukashunal efforts, and Intel design and creationist movements were relatively new. Was I wrong. Even in 1960, serious scholars recognized just how backwards and destructive religions were to a modern society, and also predicted that because of their effing brainwashing efforts, the impact of alien life existing might affect the religious far more than normal and sane people. Even more interestingly, Brookings found that the Catholic Church was far more prepared and ready to accept alien life and to incorporate such a reality into its faith system.
Our government wasn't always as ineffably stupid or as ineffective as it is today, especially with TeaBuggery running rampant and effectively destroying congress as a formerly functional governing body. In 1968, in response to some serious thinking and issues that would accompany ET, Congress passed the Extraterrestrial Exposure Law, 14 CFR Part 1211, which remained on the books until 1991 (after a great deal of study of the moon rocks and matter grabbed in orbit and returned to earth).
While some conspiracy theorists think that this was intended to keep my favorite Martian secret, the Act actually allows NASA's chief administrator to cause the detention and indefinite holding of any person who might be contaminated by some alien microbe, prion, bacteria, or fungus, in order to preserve the rest of the human race, and not to punish those who came in contact with aliens. The only person who could reverse a decision to detain and isolate a person who may have had contact, is the president. By statute, the courts are powerless to act.
The Brookings Report was realistic in other ways, as well. They realized that humanity has a collective memory of a gnat, especially when a big lesson is there to be learned:
"If plant life or some subhuman intelligence were found on Mars or Venus, for example, there is on the face of it no good reason to suppose these discoveries, after the original novelty had been exploited to the fullest and worn off, would result in substantial changes in perspectives or philosophy in large parts of the American public, at least any more than, let us say, did the discovery of the coelacanth or the panda."
I can see the average TeaBugger saying, "Yeah, whoopie, we wasted a Billion to get to the moon, and all we found was some dead bug? Our biggest enema is the budget deficit! Let's cut taxes to take our country back!" Add to their collective ineffable stupidity the inability or willful ignorance of today's news media (Oh, look! Another missing besotted bimbette who disappeared from Aruba on the way to her wedding party!) and its apparent inability to deal seriously with any serious issue, and I admit that Brookings is absolutely correct about this. If it is a dead bug, we ain't gonna care, not after the initial hoopla. Of course, those on the extreme right will twist the finding into some other attack on Liberals, Obama, and taxes. Because.
The full text of this statute is included at the very end.
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3. Rahm is unloved, but with a city as complex as ours, people will likely bite the bullet and retain him. Rahm and his allies are worthy of several diaries themselves. Heck, I was hoping someone would cover Rahm's tenure as chief of staff for Obama - that would be a revealing topic.
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4. If anyone has the chance, pick up Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century. I cannot think of a better, more rational argument with which the EU's self destructive austerity can be shut down. If anything, they (and we) should follow the lead of Iceland and throw our top bankers into jail. After austerity is destroyed.
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5. Putin's upcoming death.
This guy is a menace. He's made a mess of his economy, he has destroyed good will around the world, and he poses a danger to not just Ukraine, but to most of the world. He is reactionary, has the boldness of someone who always has something to prove, and has this inflated self image that would keep even Zaphod's psychiatrist on 24/7 call.
In many ways, the life of the common person in Mommy Russia has never changed. Under the tsar, the masses suffered. The tsar's family and fiends did very, very well. Under the Soviet Socialist system, the masses suffered, while Party Members, military leaders, and intel groups did very, very well. Under Putin, the masses suffered, while a handful of fiends and family became billionaires. But as Putin becomes ever more unpredictable and reactionary, and as he continues to push away his former allies and attacks their billions stashed away, he poses a danger to the incredibly wealthy lifestyle that they have stolen for themselves. That will not last. Even he cannot kill all of those who voice any opposition to him. Well, he can, but that would be as effective as the US using drones to destroy another peaceful wedding party.
The worst thing that Putin has going for him is that Putin will always be Putin, much like Jay Cutler always being a pathetic quarterback with a great arm.
I know some people here and I have butted heads on the topic of Putin, and clearly they are entitled to their own opinions. However, talk to leaders in the Baltics, in France, in Germany, and in any of the 'Stans which cover Russia's southern border. They all fear Putin, and with very good reason.
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1211.100 Title 14 - Aeronautics and Space
Part 1211 - Extra-terrestrial Exposure
1211.100 - Scope
This part establishes: (a) NASA policy, responsibility and authority to guard the Earth against any harmful contamination or adverse changes in its environment resulting from personnel, spacecraft and other property returning to the Earth after landing on or coming within the atmospheric envelope of a celestial body; and (b) security requirements, restrictions and safeguards that are necessary in the interest of national security.
1211.101 - Applicability
The provisions of this part to all NASA manned and unmanned space missions which land or come within the atmospheric envelope of a celestial body and return to the Earth.
1211.102 - Definitions
(a) "NASA" and the "Administrator" mean, respectively the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or his authorized representative.
(b) "Extra-terrestrially exposed" means the state of condition of any person, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever, who or which has:
(1) Touched directly or come within the atmospheric envelope or any other celestial body; or
(2) Touched directly or been in close proximity to (or been exposed indirectly to) any person, property, animal or other form of life or matter who or which has been extra-terrestrially exposed by virtue of paragraph (b)(1) of this section.
For example, if person or thing "A" touches the surface of the Moon, and on "A's" return to Earth, "B" touches "A" and, subsequently, "C" touches "B", all of these - "A" through "C" inclusive - would be extra-terrestrially exposed ("A" and "B" directly; "C" indirectly).
(c) "Quarantine" means the detention, examination and decontamination of any persons, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever that is extra-terrestrially exposed, and includes the apprehension or seizure of such person, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever.
(d) "Quarantine period" means a period of consecutive calendar days as may be established in accordance with 1211.104 (a).
(a) Administrative actions. The Administrator or his designee shall in his discretion:
(1) Determine the beginning and duration of a quarantine period with respect to any space mission; the quarantine period as it applies to various life forms will be announced.
(2) Designate in writing quarantine officers to exercise quarantine authority.
(3) Determine that a particular person, property, animal, or other form of life or matter whatever is extra- terrestrially exposed and quarantine such person, property, animal, or other form of life or matter whatever. The quarantine may be based only on a determination, with or without the benefit of a hearing, that there is probable cause to believe that such person, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever is extra-terrestrially exposed.
(4) Determine within the United States or within vessels or vehicles of the United States the place, boundaries, and rules of operation of necessary quarantine stations.
(5) Provide for guard services by contract or otherwise, as many be necessary, to maintain security and inviolability of quarantine stations and quarantined persons, property, animals or other form of life or matter whatever.
(6) Provide for the subsistence, health and welfare of persons quarantined under the provisions of this part.
(7) Hold such hearings at such times, in such manner and for such purposes as may be desirable or necessary under this part, including hearings for the purpose of creating a record for use in making any determination under this part for the purpose of reviewing any such determination.
(b) (3) During any period of announced quarantine, no person shall enter or depart from the limits of the quarantine station without permission of the cognizant NASA officer. During such period, the posted perimeter of a quarantine station shall be secured by armed guard.
(b) (4) Any person who enters the limits of any quarantine station during the quarantine period shall be deemed to have consented to the quarantine of his person if it is determined that he is or has become extra-terrestrially exposed.
(b) (5) At the earliest practicable time, each person who is quarantined by NASA shall be given a reasonable opportunity to communicate by telephone with legal counsel or other persons of his choice.
1211.107 Court or other process
(a) NASA officers and employees are prohibited from discharging from the limits of a quarantine station any quarantined person, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever during order or other request, order or demand an announced quarantine period in compliance with a subpoena, show cause or any court or other authority without the prior approval of the General Counsel and the Administrator.
(b) Where approval to discharge a quarantined person, property, animal or other form of life or matter whatever in compliance with such a request, order or demand of any court or other authority is not given, the person to whom it is directed shall, if possible, appear in court or before the other authority and respectfully state his inability to comply, relying for his action on this 1211.107.
1211.108 Violations
Whoever willfully violates, attempts to violate, or conspires to violate any provision of this part or any regulation or order issued under this part or who enters or departs from the limits of a quarantine station in disregard of the quarantine rules or regulations or without permission of the NASA quarantine officer shall be fined not more that $5,000 or imprisoned not more than 1 year, or both.