Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Can Ted Cruz win Iowa and New Hampshire?
Maybe Iowa, but not New Hampshire, say the Republican insiders who answer Politico's weekly survey of those states. If the Texas senator plays his cards right and the stars align and all that, "Nearly two-thirds of Iowa Republican insiders believe Cruz can win the caucuses." But only 14 percent of New Hampshire respondents thought he could win their state. And that's in the primaries. The general election is another story: Just one out of 10 of the Republican insiders believe Cruz could beat Hillary Clinton in their state in the general election.
Granted, the Texas senator may not be targeting traditional political insiders with his appeal, but they seem to have his number:
“His fighter mentality will play well with conservative activists and those who listen to talk radio,” said an Iowa Republican, “but it’s not like he has scored any real accomplishment on rolling back the Affordable Care Act.”
Since the low-turnout Iowa caucuses are designed to be dominated by conservative activists, that's not a bad thing for Cruz, and the insiders agree he could do well there if he focuses relentlessly on the state and his competitors for the title of conservative alternative to the establishment all collapse. But in New Hampshire:
... one New Hampshire Republican noted that Cruz was the only likely 2016 candidate with whom local GOP candidates did not want to appear in the run-up to last fall’s midterm elections. The 44-year-old did just one campaign swing through New Hampshire, for congressional candidate Marilinda Garcia. [...]
“The Democrats promptly used the trip in ads and used Cruz as a vehicle to successfully drive home the ‘extreme’ narrative against Garcia,” this Republican said. “It was a net loss to be seen alongside Cruz in 2014. His name and reputation are both toxic.”
"Ted Cruz: A net loss for Republicans" and "Ted Cruz: His name and reputation are both toxic" are not exactly strong campaign slogans.