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8:59 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: As expected, the GOP easily held this seat in Tuesday's special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Michael Grimm. Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan defeated City Councilor Vincent Gentile 59-40 in a race that Democrats had written off at the beginning of the year.
When Grimm announced in late December that he was resigning from this Staten Island district, there was some brief optimism from Democrats that they could put this seat into play. Obama carried it 52-47, and Team Blue had a few potentially strong candidates eyeing the contest. However, it was always clear that this would not be an easy pickup. Grimm's departure came as tensions were rising between law enforcement and Mayor Bill De Blasio over his calls for police reform, tensions that were best exemplified when NYPD officers turned their backs on the mayor at a funeral for two of their murdered colleagues.
While most of the city was sympathetic to De Blasio, Staten Islanders were a lot more likely to side with the officers. And while Donovan attracted plenty of criticism after he did not secure a conviction for the officers who killed Eric Garner, Staten Islanders agreed that the grand jury made the right call.
Local Democrats knew that they would need to run against a popular Republican in a race where the GOP wouldn't hesitate to tie them to De Blasio, something not too many of them were keen to do. Former Rep. Michael McMahon passed on a comeback bid, though it was never clear how interested he really was. But while Democrats hoped that Assemblyman Michael Cusick could make this contest competitive, it soon became clear that even he would be the clear underdog against Donovan. An unknown person even leaked a DCCC poll in January showing Cusick losing by a brutal 48-28 margin, and he unsurprisingly sat the contest out.
Gentile wasn't a bad candidate, and he managed to draw some blood from Donovan after the Republican embarrassed himself at a debate. But both parties knew that this seat wasn't going anywhere in May, and neither side spent any real money trying to contest it. Ultimately, it was no surprise that Donovan dominated on Tuesday.
Team Blue began talking about putting this seat back in play next year even before Donovan's victory was official. Democrats hope that with presidential turnout, the prospect of New Yorker Hillary Clinton leading the ticket, and a stronger candidate with better ties to Staten Island, they can give Donovan a real race. If De Blasio's tensions with the NYPD have also faded from the headlines, it should also give them a better shot here.
Party operatives tell Roll Call that they'll be looking at McMahon and Cusick again, as well as state Sen. Diane Savino. But Donovan will have incumbency on his side, and his blowout win might scare off top-tier opponents. We have a long way to go till the general, but it's going to take a lot for Democrats to flip this seat this time.
9:42 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Anchorage Mayor: An unusually nasty runoff in Alaska's largest city ended in a clear 59-41 win for Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz held a big financial edge over GOP city Assemblywoman Amy Demboski, who edged out two better-funded conservatives in the April non-partisan primary. Berkowitz will replace GOP Mayor Dan Sullivan (not to be confused with the freshman senator of the same name) and will become one of the Last Frontier's most prominent Democrats.
The contest entered the gutter in the final week when a prominent pastor accused Berkowitz of endorsing father-son marriages on his radio show. Berkowitz denied the accusations, but Demboski suggested that her opponent seriously supported incest. Audio of the show finally surfaced just a day before the election, but it didn't settle much. There were no public polls of the runoff so we can't know if the controversy had any real effect on voters one way or another, but it definitely wasn't enough to stop Berkowitz from winning decisively.
Berkowitz's victory finally gives him a high-profile win after three big losses. In 2006 he served as ex-Gov. Tony Knowles' running mate during his comeback bid, but the ticket lost 48-41 to none other tan Sarah Palin. Two years later, Berkowitz challenged longtime GOP Rep. Don Young, who was under federal investigation. While polls showed Berkowitz winning, it appears that Alaskans decided they couldn't sacrifice Young at a time when powerful Sen. Ted Stevens was about to lose his seat.
Berkowitz also ran for governor in 2010 but this time there wasn't much optimism that he could beat Republican Sean Parnell, and he lost 59-38. But Berkowitz's victory on Tuesday gives Alaska Democrats a high-profile figure in a state where they don't have much of as bench, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him on another statewide ballot before too long.
10:13 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Columbus Mayor: Ohio's largest city held its non-partisan primary on Tuesday and as expected, Columbus City Council President Andrew Ginther easily advanced to November with 51 percent. The fight for the second place spot was a lot closer, with fellow Democrat and Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott leading Republican Terry Boyd by only 147 votes. The primary will need to be certified by May 26, and the elections board will decide if it's close enough for a recount. Still, it's going to be hard for either candidate to beat Ginther in the fall. Ginther has the backing of outgoing Mayor Michael Coleman and a formidable warchest, and if the primary result is any indication, he's very much the favorite.
10:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY State Assembly: Johnny Longtorso brings us the results of one this bizarre special election, where Democrats were unable to field an official nominee in a safely blue seat:
New York AD-43: In the end, it wasn't close. Diana Richardson, running on the Green and Working Families Party lines, easily won this four-way race with 50 percent of the vote. Coming in second was the Independence Party nominee, Shirley Patterson, with 25 percent. Republican/Conservative nominee Menachem Raitport was third with 21 percent, while Geoffrey Davis, running on his "Love Yourself" line, apparently couldn't get anyone else to love him; he came in last with only 4 percent of the vote.
10:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): UK General: Thursday will bring one of the most chaotic and suspenseful general elections the United Kingdom has ever seen. David Beard gives us a preview of what's to come, flagging 16 constituencies to watch for clues on whether the next prime minister will be Conservative incumbent David Cameron or Labour's Ed Miliband. We'll be liveblogging the election Thursday starting when polls close at 5 PM ET and continuing into the night, and we're expecting a historic night one way or another.
10:55 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-Sen: Rep. Ron DeSantis kicked off his bid for this open seat on Wednesday, making him the first credible Republican to jump in. DeSantis is close to well-funded anti-establishment conservative groups, and the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, and Senate Conservatives Fund immediately endorsed him. But DeSantis' tea party background could be a liability in a general election, and not all Sunshine State Republicans are keen to have him as their standard bearer.
Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and ex-Attorney General Bill McCollum have also been talking about running in the GOP primary, and one of DeSantis' House colleagues also sounds like he's laying the groundwork. Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents the Pensacola area, told reporters on Wednesday that he's a "couple months away" from a decision. But Miller is meeting with Republican activists in Palm Beach County, far away from his district, and stressing his conservatism. Weirdly, the man who arranged Miller's meet-and-greet is none other than ex-Rep. Mark Foley... who resigned from Congress in 2006 when news broke that he exchanged sexually explicit messages with teenage House pages. If even Foley can work his way back into the party's good graces, I guess anyone can!
11:21 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Jacksonville Mayor: St. Pete Polls takes another look at the May 19 runoff and they find good news for the GOP. They give Republican challenger Lenny Curry a 49-45 lead over Democratic incumbent Alvin Brown, a switch from Brown's 49-46 edge in their late March survey. We've had issues with St. Pete Polls' accuracy before but unfortunately, there isn't much other data out there. A mid-April poll from an unidentified pollster gave Brown a 44-41 advantage but that's really it, though Politico's Marc Caputo said that the mysterious survey matched what both sides were seeing.
12:34 PM PT: NH-Sen, Gov: A new Dartmouth poll of New Hampshire mostly offers a ton of undecideds in the state's two big races coming up next year. On the Senate side, if Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan challenges GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte, she'd trail by a 38-33 margin; alternatively, if ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (an unlikely option for Team Blue) were to run, she'd find herself behind by a much larger 45-25 spread.
If Hassan instead decides to seek a third two-year term as governor, she'd lead Executive Councilor Chris Sununu 44-26 and Nashua Mayor Donnalee Lozeau 43-13. Needless to say, given how many voters have no opinion on these matchups, the data here is not especially useful.
12:36 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: The May 19 GOP primary has turned incredibly ugly especially in the past few days. On Monday night, a woman who said she used to date state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer back in college publicly accused him of physically and mentally abusing her and taking her to get an abortion. Comer is denying everything and is arguing that he's the victim of a smear campaign.
Comer says he's planning to sue the Courier-Journal for printing the story, and went after primary rival Hal Heiner, calling him the "Christian Laettner" of Kentucky politics. In the Bluegrass State, comparing someone to the Duke player who scored the tournament winning shot against Kentucky in 1992 is the ultimate insult. In fact, it's basically the sports version of Godwin's Law.
Comer's also airing his first real negative ad of the contest, though he's unsurprisingly not focusing on the recent story. His spot instead stars a coal miner, who says he doesn't think that Heiner will stand up to Barack Obama to protect state coal jobs. The commercial never goes into any detail whatsoever about why Heiner will wilt in the face of the Obama Administration while Comer will stand firm.
Heiner's allies are also launching a negative ad, but they're so far ignoring Comer. Instead, the Bluegrass Action Fund targets the third candidate, tea partying businessman Matt Bevin. The narrator goes after Bevin for claiming to attend MIT when he didn't really. The attack is a relic from Bevin's 2014 race against Sen. Mitch McConnell. The rest of the spot goes after Bevin for taking a bailout when his family company got into trouble, another leftover from last cycle.
12:57 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WV-02: Freshman Republican Alex Mooney came surprisingly close to losing to Nick Casey last year, prevailing only 47-44 even as the GOP wave devastated Mountain State Democrats. Now, Roll Call's Simone Pathe reports that the DCCC is trying to recruit Casey for another campaign. Casey isn't ruling anything out, saying "Oh you never say ‘never'."
It's not going to be easy to beat Mooney even in a better political climate though. Last time, Casey was able to take advantage of the fact that Mooney only moved to the state in 2013 to run for Congress, something that's going to matter less now that Mooney's the incumbent. This seat also went for Romney by a brutal 60-38 margin. Even if Democrats can rebound, this central West Virginia seat is still likely to easily back the GOP presidential nominee.
Still, if West Virginia Democrats are going to have any shot at Mooney, they'll want to attack him before he's entrenched. Mooney may also need to fight off a well-funded primary challenge from 2014 foe Ken Reed, which could deplete his warchest a bit.
1:10 PM PT (Jeff Singer): AK-Sen: Former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich recently took a job with a lobbying firm, something you normally don't do if you have any intention of running for office soon. Still, Begich isn't quite closing the door on a campaign against Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski next year. When Politico asked him about a possible run, Begich told them, "I think you never say never in politics." But DSCC head Jon Tester isn't holding his breath on a Begich comeback, saying (on the record!) the chances that Begich runs next year are "pretty slim," adding "I think his life is headed in a different direction, but I could be wrong on it."
1:27 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NV-Sen: The GOP field for this open seat remains undefined, with only Las Vegas Councilor Bob Beers actually in. Jon Ralston takes a look at where things stand and gives us some tea leaves about who might be interested and what they might be waiting for.
The GOP has never given up hope that they can recruit popular Gov. Brian Sandoval, and Rep. Joe Heck is beginning to reconsider his plans to stay in the House, but it still looks unlikely that they'll land either man. State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson and Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison are both more interested, but Ralston says Hutchison might defer to Roberson.
But Roberson's Senate chances may come down to how the ongoing legislative session goes. So far, everything's coming up Milhouse for Roberson, but the Assembly may still rain on his parade. Ralston points out that he has few friends in the lower house and legislative Democrats aren't exactly going to be in a hurry to help him if his agenda runs into problems, especially with taxes. If things remain calm until the session ends in June, Roberson is likely to leave Carson City stronger than ever. But if things go haywire, the NRSC isn't going to be so happy with him as their standard bearer.
Ralston also mentions state Attorney General Adam Laxalt. Laxalt has given little indication that he's looking at a Senate run, but he might be persuaded if the establishment favorite looks weak after the session is over.
1:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-06: Republican Rep. Ron DeSantis' Senate campaign sets off an open seat race in this safely red coastal district just south of Jacksonville, and one familiar name sounds interested. Former Rep. Sandy Adams said on Tuesday that she's "exploring the idea."
Adams used to represent about 23 percent of this seat from 2011 to 2013 so she'd start out with some name recognition, but not an incredible amount. Adams' old seat was taken apart by redistricting and she chose to run in the neighboring 7th District in 2012 instead of here, which proved to be a big miscalculation. She lost the primary to fellow incumbent John Mica by a 61-39 margin, despite representing more of the new seat than Mica. If Adams runs, she'll start out with support from state Rep. Fred Costello, who lost the 2012 open-seat primary to DeSantis but made it clear he won't be trying again.
Other local Republicans have been a lot more quiet about their plans, but Roll Call and the Daytona Beach News-Journal give us some potential candidates to watch. They mention former New Smyrna Beach Mayor Adam Barringer; state Sen. Dorothy Hukill; state Sen. Travis Hutson; state Rep. Doc Renuart; and state Rep. David Santiago. We'll probably see some other local politicians sniff out this contest before too long.
1:54 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Houston Mayor: After spending months as an almost candidate, Democratic Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia officially kicked off his bid for this open seat on Wednesday. Garcia is required to immediately resign his post and the Commissioners Court is likely to appoint a Republican in his place, which won't make local Democrats happy. But Harris has the name recognition and connections to make a splash here, and he's likely to be one of the candidates to watch in November.
2:23 PM PT: Deaths: Former Democratic Rep. Jim Wright of Texas died on Wednesday at the age of 92. Wright hailed from the Fort Worth area and ultimately rose to the pinnacle of power, winning election as speaker of the House in 1986 after the legendary Tip O'Neill retired. But Wright's tenure was brief, as he resigned in 1989 after a House Ethics Committee investigation pushed by Newt Gingrich suggested he'd improperly accepted gifts from a developer and had also received royalties for a book he wrote as a way to evade gift limits. Wright was succeeded as speaker by Washington Rep. Tom Foley.
2:56 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Alberta: Tuesday's provisional election in Alberta was nothing short of momentous. Not only did the ruling right-wing Progressive Conservative Party lose power for the first time since 1971, the New Democratic Party will give the province its first left-wing government in 85 years. To add insult to injury for the PCs, they don't even get to be the official opposition party. Instead, the even more right-wing Wildrose Party, a group left for dead just months ago, will get that honor.
So how did the PCs go from dominant to electoral road kill in just a few months? As our own James L explained in the leadup to the vote, collapsing oil prices did a number on the government's popularity in this petroleum friendly-province. The PC's now former leader Jim Prentice also put forward an unpopular budget and made a few costly gaffes. Canada's electoral system also played a huge role. While in the past, left-wing voters were divided between the Liberals and NDP, the collapse of the Liberals only left one viable outlet for this group. By contrast, right-wingers angry with the PCs could choose Wildrose.
Ultimately, it appears that the NDP will go from holding just four seats on Monday to 53 now, while Wildrose went from five to 21. As for the PCs, they cratered from 70 to just 10. Stephen Wolf has created an interactive map of the province based on the 2012 and 2015 contests, and the devastation is just a thing to behold.