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new poll from New Hampshire reveals a 2016 Republican field with no clear front runner in a state where the primary is much more predictive of a candidate's chances to win their party's nomination than Iowa, for instance. On the Republican side, New Hampshire has correctly forecasted the party nominee in two of the last three contested presidential election cycles (the exception: in 2000, NH voters chose John McCain over George W. Bush; they also chose correctly in 2004, but Bush ran virtually uncontested that year).
Steven Shepard reports that the survey reveals a "muddled mess" for Republicans.
The survey, conducted by the bipartisan, D.C.-based firm Purple Insights for Saint Anselm College and Bloomberg News, shows Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker atop the field, each with 12 percent. Right on their heels are former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who are at 11 percent.
While the top four candidates are the only ones to earn double-digit support, a number of other contenders (and possible contenders) follow close behind. Self-promoting real-estate magnate Donald Trump, who is again toying with a presidential bid, earns 8 percent of the vote. Embattled New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 7 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is at 6 percent.
Donald Trump—really, New Hampshire? Anyway, we appear to have an open field at the moment in the "Live Free or Die" state. Excellent.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton earned 62 percent support, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 18 percent and Vice President Joe Biden at 5 percent.