Less than two days after all but one Senate Democrat handed what some observers viewed as a
stinging defeat for President Obama, it appears his jawboning of pro-trade Democrats may well
reverse that situation and give him the victory he has sought on fast-track trade legislation.
The Senate is slated to vote this afternoon on two trade bills and again on a motion to proceed with debate on Trade Promotion Authority, the formal name for fast-tracking. Assuming the cloture vote succeeds, a vote on TPA itself will take place Tuesday.
That legislation would authorize the president to complete negotiations on trade deals, including the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, an agreement with the European Union. Once a trade agreement was completed, Congress members would then get a chance to review the pact and vote it up or down. They would not be able to make amendments.
A motion to proceed with debate on TPA failed on Tuesday to achieve the 60 votes needed to break the filibuster because all Democrats but Sen. Tom Carper of Delaware said "no." Some of them would have cast a no vote anyway. But at least 10 pro-trade Democrats joined the opposition to the motion to proceed because they wanted the TPA to be part of a four-bill package.
The other three bills are designed to crack down on Chinese currency manipulation, give preferential treatment to imports from African countries and improve aid to American workers displaced by foreign trade. On Wednesday, prominent Democrats gave in to the jaw-boning and arm-twisting and agreed to move forward with individual votes on the currency and African aid bills ahead of a second vote on TPA. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed to package the TPA bill with the displaced worker bill known as the Trade Adjustment Assistance Enhancement Act.
Russell Berman reports:
Tuesday’s rebuke of the president was hailed as a victory for the progressive activists led by Senator Elizabeth Warren. But the White House had downplayed it as a “procedural snafu,” and ultimately that might prove to be the case. Democrats will be able to tell their constituents they voted to crack down on China, but that bill is unlikely to become law. A final Senate vote on the fast-track trade bill is expected next week, and then it will face an even tougher path in the House, where a majority of liberal Democrats oppose Obama’s trade push. [...]
“The hundreds of thousands of activists who have rallied behind Senators Warren, Brown, and Sanders to defeat the [Trans-Pacific Partnership] will not rest until it is dead, buried, and covered with six inches of concrete,” said Charles Chamberlain, the executive director of Democracy for America. “We know the forces pushing the job-killing TPP won’t stop here, and they should know, neither will we.” Jim Kessler, vice president for policy at the centrist think-tank Third Way, shot back: "This is not close to being over."
Unless the Senate offers up another surprise as it did on Tuesday, it seems that the future of fast-track legislation will soon be in the hands of liberal House Democrats and right-wing Republicans who oppose fast-tracking.
9:28 AM PT: The first vote, on the African trade bill, has passed the Senate 97-1, with the no vote cast by Republican Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma.
9:54 AM PT: The Senate has voted 78-20 on the second trade bill, the Trade Enforcement & Customs Bill to bar currency manipulation. All the no votes were Republican.