The folks over at FiveThirtyEight.com, also known as 538, produced a breathless editorial recently claiming "Senator Sanders, You're No Barack Obama" in which they proceeded to construct a straw-man argument showing the inevitability of Hillary Clinton and the shortcomings of Bernie Sanders.
Only one problem. The editorial is full of shit.
There are a number (pun intended) of problems with the editorial, which purports to show that in 2015, Hillary Clinton is doing better than she was in 2007. Setting aside the fact that the editorialist keeps mixing in numbers and claims from both 2007 and 2008 (this is 2015, which is equivalent to 2007, dodo), the biggest problem is the editorialist's use of selective data and selective memory.
Consider this: Between November 2006 and February 2007, seven major Democratic candidates opened their campaigns. They were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson. In addition, Tom Vilsack and Mike Gravel were also running by then.
That selective memory, friends, is where the editorial falls on its face. The reason Hillary's numbers were lower in 2007 than in 2015 is that she was competing against an entire field of heavyweight contenders. Does anyone besides me remember the John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich fervor running rampant on Daily Kos back then?
Consider this, too: Bernie Sanders did not announce his candidacy until May 26, 2015. Prior to that, Hillary was just about the only game in town. It's no wonder her 2015 numbers are stronger -- she had no competition until recently.
So for all those at 538 wishing to write off Bernie Sanders and hoping to grease the skids for a Hillary Clinton nomination, shame on you. You're not going to get your wish by fudging the numbers to suit your agenda. Sorry, it just doesn't work that way.
UPDATE #2 4:06 pm: The one chart that says it all? Some commenters say watch Iowa. Others say that Sanders' support is not at Hillary's expense. Oddly enough, the chart in a HuffPo piece show Sanders arcing upward while Clinton arcs downward in Iowa. If the current slopes continue, Sanders will surpass Clinton in Iowa in less than 3 months. See: 2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
UPDATE 2:36 pm: Here's an interesting Gallup poll article from December 18, 2007, a full 4 months later in the 2008 cycle than our comparable position in the 2016 cycle.
Clinton Maintains Large Lead Over Obama Nationally -- New York Sen. Hillary Clinton continues to have a substantial lead over the group of Democrats vying to win the party's nomination for president in 2008. Obama remains a solid second, as he has been all year, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continuing to hold down third place. Clinton's support improved modestly from a dip earlier this month and is nearly back to her high levels from the late summer and early fall.