On Friday, Republican Secretary of State Dianna Duran
resigned her post as part of a plea deal with prosecutors, who
had indicted her in August for illegally converting hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign funds to her personal use—namely, for gambling at casinos. Remarkably, Duran will get no jail time under this agreement, though it's still subject to approval by a judge.
Now that she's gone, though, Matthew Reichbach
games out what happens next. GOP Gov. Susana Martinez will select a replacement, but that person will only serve through 2016. Ordinarily, the secretary of state is elected in midterm years, but thanks to Duran's resignation, a special election will be held next year. Martinez's appointee (who apparently does not require legislative confirmation) could run in that race, but Democrats are sure to contest it hotly.
Reichbach mentions several possible Republicans, but for Democrats, there's just one obvious candidate: Bernalillo County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who lost last year to Duran
by just 3 points. That was a strong performance given the GOP wave (Martinez, by contrast, won by 14), and Toulouse Oliver would enjoy presidential turnout this time. Toulouse Oliver previously said
she was interested in running if Duran quit, and she's already issued a statement saying the secretary of state's office must begin to "move forward." Odds of a Democratic pickup here look good.