The Canadian Liberal Party won big in Monday's federal election, generating a lot of international press coverage. There's been a lot of talk about how attractive Justin Trudeau is, and more about his expansive agenda. So, who is going to get the summons into the executive to help him implement his many ideas? To answer that question, you have to take into account everything from geography, to gender, to race, to professional credential, to who Trudeau is said to like. I chose to take a stab at an analysis taking all of those things into account.
Check back on November 4th, and we'll see how well I did.
Sir John A. Macdonald, Canada's first prime minister, is said to have jocularly listed his occupation as "cabinetmaker" on multiple occasions. In the earliest forms of parliamentary government in England, the cabinet was a true governing council. The office of the prime minister was initially informal, and later meant to be primus inter pares (first among equals). As the Canadian political scientist and senator Eugene Forsey remarked, by the 20th century the notion of primus inter pares was long outdated. The prime minister was clearly the most powerful man in government, with the ability to dismiss the other ministers at will, or to ignore them if he saw fit. Outgoing PM Steven Harper (it still feels great to type that) took this to the greatest extreme of any prime minister, but one can see the roots of those developments stretching back decades. Our incoming prime minister has said that he wants a cabinet of "actual deciders" who will enjoy much greater authority than in recent history; after a few years of this new government, we'll know if he means it. Regardless, the first steps will come with the appointment of the new cabinet, scheduled for November 4th.
The Canadian Cabinet is expected to represent all provinces and regions of the country, meaning that every province gets at least one (six of the ten provinces generally can only expect one, particularly when the Cabinet is small). Trudeau has made a very public pledge that his Cabinet will have an equal number of men and women, a new criterion. He has also vowed that his Cabinet will be noticeably smaller than Harper's Cabinet (which currently stands at 39 members, and went as high as 40). What exactly that means, numbers-wise, is known only to Mr. Trudeau and his advisors. But for a floor, the Cabinet has (counting the prime minister himself) 27 core ministerial positions (these being ministers with assigned departments or parliamentary responsibilities, and which exist in every modern government):
1. Prime Minister
2. Minister of Finance
3. Minister of Justice and Attorney General
4. Minister of Foreign Affairs
5. Minister of National Defence
6. Minister of Industry
7. Minister of Transport
8. President of the Treasury Board
9. Minister of the Environment
10. Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
11. Minister of International Trade
12. Minister of National Revenue
13. Minister of Veterans Affairs
14. Minister of Natural Resources
15. Minister of Health
16. Minister of Public Works and Government Services
17. Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs & President of the Privy Council
18. Minister for Aboriginal and Northern Affairs
19. Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
20. Minister of Agriculture
21. Minister of Labour
22. Minister of Fisheries and Oceans
23. Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development
24. Minister of Canadian Heritage
25. Minister of International Cooperation
26. Leader of the Government in the House of Commons
27. Chief Government Whip
Beyond the aforesaid, there are some jobs that can either be given as a standalone responsibility or assigned to one of the permanent ministers (responsibility for various regional economic development initiatives, for instance); and then there are the junior ministers, called "ministers of state" (or, in Jean Chretien's government, "secretaries of state"), who don't have departments, and may either be given an issue-based jurisdiction that spans multiple departments or encompasses some specific part of an individual department's jurisdiction (for instance, Jean Chretien appointed some junior ministers for the Department of Foreign Affairs with responsibility for individual regions).
So, with all that in mind, who of the 183 MPs elected to join him in the House of Commons will Trudeau tap on the shoulder to join him in Her Majesty's Government?
Newfoundland & Labrador
Liberal MPs: 7 (of 7)
Of the six provinces that can generally only expect a single minister, Newfoundland is the only one where there's a very clear choice for female ministers, important to fulfilling the gender parity goal. Newfoundland has 3 female Liberal MPs, in fact, two of whom will likely be considered for inclusion: Judy Foote (MP for Bonavista—Burin—
Trinity since 2008, and also the MP with the largest margin of victory anywhere in the country) and Yvonne Jones (MP for Labrador since 2013). Foote has been the caucus whip in recent years, and held a variety of ministerial posts in the Newfoundland provincial Liberal governments in the late 1990s and early 2000s; Jones, who is of Inuit descent, was briefly also a provincial minister, and also briefly the provincial Liberal leader.
Prince Edward Island
Liberal MPs: 4 (of 4)
Prince Edward Island is the only province in this election whose delegation has no women (one of three with no Liberal women), so no help here on the diversity score; nothing but white dudes as far as the eye can see. Of the four, Lawrence MacAulay is the second-longest-serving MP in the entire House, first elected in 1988. He was in Cabinet from 1993 to 2002, under Chretien, and his best days are behind. Bobby Morrissey, first elected this year, is probably too junior. That leaves the choice as being between Wayne Easter (MP for Malpeque since 1993) and Sean Casey (MP for Charlottetown since 2011). Easter was briefly Solicitor General from 2002 to 2003; Casey has never held ministerial office. Of the two, I would say Casey is the more likely choice (and the abler).
Nova Scotia
Liberal MPs: 11 (of 11)
Nova Scotia's delegation includes two former cabinet ministers, three longtime backbenchers (one a longtime backbencher for another party), and six rookies. But this is a pretty easy call. Nova Scotia's minister will be Scott Brison, MP for Kings-Hants, former Minister of Public Works (2004-2006), and the party's finance critic since 2010. Brison, Canada's first (and to date only) openly gay cabinet minister, was originally elected as a Progressive Conservative in 1997, and crossed the floor in the aftermath of the PCs' merger with Reform to form the Conservative Party. There's a decent chance that he will be the next Finance Minister, but in any event, one of the monetary portfolios seems a solid bet.
Trivia: the other former cabinet minister in Nova Scotia is Geoff Regan (MP for Halifax West, 1993-1997 and 2000-present), who was Minister of Fisheries and Oceans from 2003 to 2006 under Paul Martin, back when cabinet was big enough for two Nova Scotians. Geoff is the son of Gerald Regan, a provincial premier who later served as a federal cabinet minister in the government of Pierre Trudeau from 1980 to 1984. While it's unlikely to happen at this juncture, Pierre's son could have Gerald's son in his cabinet.
New Brunswick
Liberal MPs: 10 (of 10)
Similar to Nova Scotia, despite this being a large delegation, there's only one choice: Dominic LeBlanc, MP for Beausejour since 2000, and the only New Brunswick Liberal who survived the 2011 wipeout.
Also similar to Nova Scotia, Dominic is the son of Romeo LeBlanc, who was also MP for Beausejour from 1972 to 1984, and subsequently a senator and then Governor General of Canada. Romeo was for many years a minister in the government of Pierre Trudeau, much like his son will be a minister in Trudeau's son's government (Dominic is four years older than Justin, but they're said to have known each other well during their fathers' years of service together, and he's one of Justin's closest allies in Parliament).
Manitoba
Liberal MPs: 7 (of 14)
Wait, aren't I skipping a few provinces, you ask? Well, yes, but I'm doing so in order to cover the smaller ministerial delegations first. Manitoba, like its Atlantic cousins, is a one-minister province, generally. Of the seven Liberal MPs elected here, there three that you could make a case for. The first of these is Kevin Lamoureux (MP for Winnipeg North since 2010), who was the only Liberal MP to survive the 2011 electoral disaster, and is thus the veteran of the delegation. Unfortunately for him, that's not likely to count for much. The second is Jim Carr, the newly-elected MP for Winnipeg South Centre; Carr spent some time in the provincial legislature in the late 1980s-early 1990s, and then held a variety of private sector jobs, including founding the Manitoba Business Council; pundits and people in the party speak very well of him.
It would probably be clear sailing for Carr, if not for the fact that the unexpectedly strong Liberal surge in Manitoba also elected MaryAnn Mihychuk in Kildonan-St. Paul. What with the gender parity concern, Mihychuk rates serious consideration, and her resume is very strong. Like Carr, she spent time in the Manitoba legislature, but in her case it was as a member of the provincial New Democratic Party -- which had the singular advantage of enabling her to serve in government, as a minister in the cabinet of Premier Gary Doer from 1999 to 2004 (at which point she resigned to mount an unsuccessful mayoral bid).
Saskatchewan
Liberal MPs: 1 (of 14)
Ralph Goodale. There, that was easy.
Though even if the Liberals held all 14 seats here, it would still be Goodale, the MP for Regina-Wascana since 1993 (and previously an MP from 1974 to 1979, which makes him the only person to serve in government with Pierre Trudeau and Justin Trudeau). Goodale held senior cabinet positions from 1993 to 2006 under Jean Chretien and Paul Martin, ending his prior ministerial career as Finance Minister, a job to which he stands a pretty good chance of being reappointed. He is presently the party's deputy leader.
Alberta
Liberal MPs: 4 (of 34)
Ah, Alberta, the heart of the enemy's territory. The Liberals elected no MPs here from 1972 to 1988, and then again from 2006 to 2011. In 2015, they managed 4, their best result since 1993, and arguably a more impressive feat as it was achieved without vote-splitting between two conservative parties, as was the case in 1993. As it happens, the four MPs are split evenly between the province's two major cities, Edmonton and Calgary. It's unclear how many ministers Alberta can expect (in a larger cabinet, one might even say all of them), but the general assumption right now is that there'll be one per city.
Of the two Edmonton MPs, Amarjeet Sohi (MP for Edmonton Mill Woods) and Randy Boissonnault (MP for Edmonton Centre), the general opinion seems to favour Mr. Sohi, a two-term city councilor who attracts considerable praise from those who follow city government. That is, assuming Sohi survives an impending recount, as he only won by 79 votes, the second-narrowest margin in the country.
The two Calgary MPs, Kent Hehr (MP for Calgary Centre) and Darshan Singh Kang (MP for Calgary Skyview) are both former provincial Liberal legislators who jumped ship before the provincial Liberal Party crashed in the election earlier this year, in search of greener pastures (green being the benches of the House of Commons). Both made it there, but there's probably room for only one in Cabinet. Mr. Hehr, a successful attorney and disability rights advocate, seems to be attracting more buzz at the moment.
And now, the big provinces:
British Columbia
Liberal MPs: 17 (of 42)
British Columbia can probably expect at least four ministers. If you've been tallying the earlier entries to account for gender, you'll see we're at 6-7 men against a possible 1-2 women from the first seven provinces, so the three big provinces are going to have to carry the bulk of the gender parity. In BC, in particular, this heavily favours the province's female MPs, of whom there are several who are widely tipped for ministerial office. Two Liberals were elected from BC in the last election, both women: Joyce Murray (MP for Vancouver Quadra since 2007) and Hedy Fry (MP for Vancouver Center since 1993). Murray, who was BC's provincial environment minister from 2001 to 2005, is a sure bet. Fry (at age 74, the oldest current MP) was a junior minister for a period in the Chretien government, but spectacularly self-destructed when she claimed that KKK-style cross burnings were being conducted on the lawns of Prince George, BC, a claim for which there turned out to be no evidence to speak of. Fairly or not, that incident marked her as a bit of a joke (though her constituents have re-elected her five times since then, so clearly they aren't complaining), which probably precludes reappointment.
Adjacent to the aforesaid, BC voters in Vancouver Granville elected a woman who is widely tipped to be a real star on the national stage: Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former regional chief of the BC Assembly of First Nations, who earned a reputation as a vociferous critic of the Harper government's policy on aboriginal issues. Wilson-Raybould, a former prosecutor, is one of eight Liberal MPs of aboriginal ancestry elected this year (including Jones, mentioned earlier). West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country (my favourite riding name in the country; I was so glad that survived the last redistricting round) elected Pamela Goldsmith-Jones, the former Mayor of West Vancouver, also considered a strong contender. Finally, the Delta riding elected Carla Qualtrough, a legally-blind human rights lawyer and former medal-winning Paralympian.
But it can't all be about the ladies. Another widely-touted newcomer to Parliament is Harjit Sajjan, the new MP for Vancouver South, a retired army lieutenant colonel who was the first Sikh regimental commander in Canadian Forces history, a decorated veteran of the Afghanistan campaigns, and later spent 11 years as a police detective.
Quebec
Liberal MPs: 40 (of 78)
Well, as a starting point, Justin Trudeau (MP for Papineau since 2008) will be in Cabinet, seeing as he is the Prime Minister.
Marc Garneau (MP for Westmount, also since 2008), the first Canadian astronaut, is another safe bet, and a likely Foreign Minister. Stephane Dion (MP for Saint-Laurent since 1996) is another presumptive minister, a former (unsuccessful) leader of the Liberal Party from 2006 to 2008, and the most experienced member of the caucus other than Goodale (he served as Intergovernmental Affairs Minister from 1996 to 2003, and then as Environment Minister from 2004 to 2006).
Melanie Joly, the newly-elected MP for Ahuntsic-Cartierville, is one of the most talked-of new Liberal MPs. She previously ran for mayor of Montreal, finishing second, and sufficiently impressed Trudeau that he made his preference for her very clear in the nomination contest, to the discontent of others in the riding. She could easily be a future leader of the Party, if she does well in government. Anju Dhillon (MP for Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle), Marie-Claude Bibeau (MP for Compton), and Diane Lebouthillier (MP for Gaspésie) are other possibilities -- the latter two notable because they're from outside Montreal, and one expects that at least some ministers will be from outside the Liberals' traditional stronghold.
Ontario
Liberal MPs: 80 (of 121)
Canada's largest province has more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons, and contributes slightly less than half the Liberal caucus. A majority of those 80 MPs, in turn, come from the city of Toronto and neighbouring areas.
Andrew Leslie, the newly-elected MP for Orleans (part of the nation's capital city, Ottawa), is a retired general and formerly the army chief of staff. He's a shoo-in to be Defence Minister -- and, for trivia fans, both of his grandfathers also served as Minister of National Defence in past Liberal governments: General Andrew MacNaughton, a decorated veteran of two world wars whose wartime tenure (1944-1945) ended unhappily after he was unable to navigate the politics of introducing conscription in World War II; and Brooke Claxton, who served from 1946 to 1954.
Chrystia Freeland (MP for University-Rosedale, formerly Toronto Centre, since 2013) was recruited as a candidate by Trudeau with a clear eye to her being a minister. She's one of the MPs closest to him, reputedly, and a key advisor on economic policy. This has led to some speculation that she could be Canada's first female Finance Minister, but if that's in the offing, it's perhaps more likely that she'll be shuffled into that post later.
John McCallum (MP for Markham since 2000) is the last of the experienced Liberal ministers meriting mention in this list; the former chief economist of the Royal Bank of Canada, he held several ministerial posts in short succession from 2002 to 2006, including defence, veterans affairs, and national revenue. If he's in, expect a key economic portfolio.
Bill Blair, the newly-elected MP for Scarborough Southwest, is likely to be the appointment that ruffles some feathers in liberal circles, if indeed he's in. He spent ten years as Toronto's police chief, and as you'd expect for somebody presiding over a major police department, there have been civil libertarian concerns raised.
For non-Canadian readers familiar with Rob Ford, the crack-smoking former mayor of Toronto, you may be amused to know that Etobicoke North, the area he represents on city council, is federally represented by a fairly liberal Liberal, MP Kirsty Duncan (since 2008). Some very odd swing voters in that riding. Duncan, a medical geographer, has held a variety of critics' jobs in the opposition period, and is a strong contender.
Dr. Carolyn Bennett (MP for St. Paul's since 1997), a junior health minister in the Martin government from 2003-2006, is another probable minister. Sidenote, she was known for vocally criticizing former PM Jean Chretien for the perceived lack of women in his cabinet, words she had to swallow when her patron Paul Martin's cabinet had fewer women than that.
The final Torontonian MP I'll mention is Adam Vaughan, MP for Spadina-Fort York (who just vanquished Oliva Chow, the former MP for the same district, and the wife of the late NDP leader Jack Layton, a defeat that is pretty emblematic of how the 2015 election went for the NDP), a longtime Toronto city councilor and specialist in urban infrastructure.
Since there's more to Ontario than Toronto (and the one Ottawa MP I mentioned), there'll probably need to be a few ministers from other parts of the province. Some possibilities would include Bardish Chagger (the new MP for Waterloo) and Maryam Monsef (the new MP for Peterborough, and the first Afghan-Canadian MP). There are a lot more, of course, but there were 80 Liberals elected in Ontario, and I don't have the room to go through all of them. At this point we're getting into considers around exactly how big Trudeau wants the Cabinet to be. I've listed more people than can fit into the enumerated positions, and there are other people who are often mentioned as cabinet material from Ontario still.
The Territories
Liberal MPs: 3 (of 3)
Canada's sparsely-populated northern territories (the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut) elected three Liberals (Larry Bagnell, Michael McLeod, and Hunter Tootoo). I included this last because it's uncertain whether there's any room for a territorial minister. Unlike the provinces, there's no firmly established custom that the territories as a region get a minister. The region did not rate anything above a junior ministry under Chretien and Martin (longtime Liberal MP Ethel Blondin-Andrew); Harper appointed the recently-ousted Nunavut MP Leona Aglukkaq to a variety of more senior posts (Health and Environment) from 2008 to 2015. The new or returned Liberals don't lack for talent (Tootoo, especially, has earned praise for his service in the Nunavut territorial legislature, of which he was the speaker for a time); it's more a matter of whether Trudeau has room.