Democratic Gov. and 2016 Senate candidate Maggie Hassan
On Monday, New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan finally made her long-expected Senate candidacy official, setting up a
fiercely contested matchup with Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte—and a race that could determine which party winds up with the majority in the Senate. That's not all that awaits Granite State voters in 2016, though. At virtually every level of state and federal politics, New Hampshire will see a battle for control of its elected institutions.
With Hassan's Senate bid, Democrats are now defending the open governor's seat. Republicans already have Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (son of ex-Gov. John H. Sununu and brother of ex-Sen. John E. Sununu) in the race, while many others in both parties are considering the contest.
At the congressional level, 1st District Rep. Frank Guinta is mired in scandal. If his fellow Republicans succeed in booting Guinta in the primary, this closely divided district will likely be a tossup as a stalwart progressive, former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is running again; if Guinta hangs on, then CSP would be favored. Meanwhile, if 2nd District Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster runs for governor, this seat could also become competitive, although it's several points bluer than the 1st. Obama carried the 2nd by 54-44, but only won the 1st by 50-49.
At the legislative level, Republicans are defending their modest majorities in a state known for large swings cycle-to-cycle. Although Republicans gerrymandered the legislature to their benefit, it's quite possible Democrats might retake both chambers as they nearly did in 2012. Republicans hold just a 14 to 10 majority in the Senate and two of their members sit in districts Obama won. The GOP has a wider 238 to 160 advantage in the House, but many Republicans hold Obama districts, and the very small size of so many seats makes the House especially prone to large swings.
Similarly to the legislature, Republicans gerrymandered their way to a majority on the state's unique Executive Council, which has veto powers over gubernatorial appointments and certain legislation. However, Democrats only need to gain a single district in that five-member body to regain the majority they held prior to 2014. Currently Republicans hold two districts that Obama won, one of them by 10 points, but Democrats are also defending a district of their own that Romney won narrowly.
In total, control over the entire state government, a Senate seat, and at least one and perhaps two House seats could all come down to the wire in New Hampshire—and that's not even mentioning the presidential race, which will likely be hotly contested. With New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary coming up in February and looking close for both parties, you can be sure the Granite State's airwaves will be bombarded beyond saturation throughout 2016.