Summary on ABC
Details
Notes on methodology
The poll was conducted Nov. 16–19. Results from two earlier polls are included for comparison. ABC/WaPo gets an A- rating from 538. Respondents were asked which candidate they were leaning to, which means the levels of support indicated are softer than polls which ask only which candidate respondents would vote for.
Democratic primary
|
Nov. |
Oct. |
Sept. |
Clinton |
60% |
64% |
56% |
Sanders |
34% |
25% |
28% |
O’Malley |
3% |
2% |
3% |
Sample: 352 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents
Margin of error: +/- 6%
Results for Oct. & Sept. are without Biden.
September results with Biden included were: Clinton 42% Sanders 24%
Demographics
|
Clinton |
|
|
Sanders |
|
|
Nov. |
Oct. |
|
Nov. |
Oct. |
Men |
55% |
57% |
|
39% |
32% |
Women |
63% |
69% |
|
32% |
21% |
White |
55% |
54% |
|
38% |
34% |
Minority |
65% |
76% |
|
31% |
15% |
Under 50 |
43% |
58% |
|
53% |
30% |
50 plus |
79% |
69% |
|
14% |
21% |
No degree |
58% |
65% |
|
36% |
24% |
College grad |
64% |
63% |
|
32% |
28% |
Liberals |
52% |
65% |
|
45% |
28% |
Moderates |
62% |
56% |
|
29% |
29% |
Sample sizes for subsets of the population are small, so these should be taken with a grain of salt. For instance, an 11% increase in women’s support for Sanders means that about 19 more women said they were leaning to or would vote for Sanders than in the October sample.
Republican primary (top five)
|
Nov. |
Oct. |
Sept. |
Trump |
32% |
32% |
33% |
Carson |
22% |
22% |
20% |
Rubio |
11% |
10% |
7% |
Cruz |
8% |
6% |
7% |
Bush |
6% |
7% |
8% |
Sample: 373 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents
Margin of error: +/- 6%
Clinton retains a strong lead, but Sanders no longer seems stalled. Sanders seems to be broadening his appeal, while the generation gap in Democratic voter preferences appears to be widening.
The Republican race seems to be in a holding pattern.