AZ-01: Last week, Democratic state Sen. Carlyle Begay announced he would switch parties and join the GOP. On one level, the move was pretty unsurprising, as Begay had long feuded with Democrats and had crossed party lines earlier this year to cast the deciding vote in favor of a Republican budget bill. On another, more important level, it looked like a deeply bizarre decision, since Begay's Senate district voted for Barack Obama by a heavy 63-35 margin, meaning he'd be doomed if he tried to run for re-election next year.
But according to "rumors" relayed by the Arizona Republic, Begay might instead run for Arizona's open 1st Congressional District, which is much more hospitable to Republicans. He'd still face a difficult task there, though, as four credible contenders are already seeking the GOP nomination. What's more, while Begay is a member of the Navajo Nation, and while his tribe's territory is part of his enormous legislative district (geographically the largest in the continental U.S., per Wikipedia), American Indians are overwhelmingly Democrats and therefore would not be able to vote for Begay in a Republican primary.