In 1989, Back to the Future II promised we could power our time machines using household garbage stuffed in to "Mr. Fusion". We recently passed Oct 21, 2015 - the date they fast-forwarded to in the movie - and while we don't yet have Mr. Fusion, we do have some new technologies that can save the planet from the devastation of fossil fuels.
In my corner of the world, we're still in record-breaking drought, have endured record-breaking fires that destroyed thousands of homes, and record-breaking floods have washed away additional homes and vehicles. From freezing to burning, our planet's weather has been getting noticeably more extreme, and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Even Pope Francis has started a campaign to let us know that no, it isn't just God who controls the weather - it's us. Just today, Bernie Sanders, Jeff Merkley, and 5 other US senators put forth a bill to forbid new extraction of fossil fuel from public lands and offshore drilling. Whether or not the bill passes, such a bill would have been unthinkable to even propose a couple years ago.
Why has it taken so long to reach a point where religious leaders, fortune 500 companies, and hesitant politicians are finally taking action to clean up climate pollution? Big oil, big auto, and other entrenched entities can take a big part of the blame. It recently came to light that Exxon's own global warming projections made in 1981 have pretty much tracked real-world temperatures since then while externally, Exxon funded denial machines to tell us there was nothing to worry about. These companies need to be punished, but even amidst the worst periods of propaganda, about half of us believed climate change was still a problem. A far-off problem that should probably be worked on at some point after we deal with more pressing concerns. If you ever need to convince a friend or colleague that now is the time for action, it's important to understand the reasons so many people are wired to ignore climate change.
In 2012, the world had a chance to come together and do something about carbon dumping in the atmosphere. Devastatingly, the 2012 United Nations Climate Change Conference had few results other than a vague commitment to keep global warming under 2C and an agreement to make more commitments by 2015.
Now it's 2015 and things are looking brighter. Countries have been meeting every few months and making commitments and plans ahead of a final meeting in Paris from Nov 30 to Dec 11. The build-up to the Paris meeting has been far different and more productive than the 2012 meeting and there is hope for some real results this time.
Last year, the People's Climate March gathered 400,000 people in New York and over half a million worldwide, by far the largest climate demonstration in history. I have to believe those demonstrations had a big effect on the progress we're making towards the Paris talks, and we have to build on that success with demonstrations in Paris and around the world starting Nov 28th. Learn what events are in your area.
Of course the fossil fuel industry will be sending an army of lobbyists to Paris while the poor countries most devastated by climate change can't afford to send delegates to attend the numerous simultaneous meetings that will be held. So Avaaz is asking us to sponsor delegates from poor countries as well as sponsor local climate leaders to speak against the smarmy fossil reps.
But we can do more than push our leaders to solve the problem. We can directly participate. Solar has plummeted in price the last few years and you can now pay less than your fossil electric bill for clean energy with no hassle and no money down from companies like Solar City. If you're willing to shop around, local companies can install and finance solar for about 2/3 the price of Solar City!
One advantage of Solar City's premium price is they're offering batteries to power you during the evening. Battery technology is finally taking off with Tesla finishing its battery gigafactory by next year and LG Chem expanding battery production. Due to mass production, battery prices are falling off the same sort of cliff that solar fell off of, leading to affordable renewable energy storage and affordable EVs. Chevy expects to sell its 200 mile range Bolt EV for $37k by the end of next year. Tesla model 3 reservations begin March 2016 for a $37k 300 mile EV to be released around March 2018. If you add the federal tax credit of $7500 along with state tax credits ($2500 in California), these $37k EVs start to become affordable and will be a big part of the climate solution.
But you don't necessarily have to wait another 1-3 years to catch the EV revolution. A used Nissan Leaf with 60-70 miles of range left in the battery can be had today for $9k to $11k. These early Leafs dropped so quickly in price because their batteries are expected to degrade to about 80% capacity in 5 years of 12,500 mile driving a year and then lose another 10% in the next 5 years. The latest generation Leafs last longer, and Teslas look like they'll only lose about 5% in the first 30k miles and then degrade very slowly. Around January, the 2016 Leaf will be released with 107 mile range and there will be approximately 30 miles of range added each year for the same price. If the range of today's EVs is barely enough for you and you'd rather have more, why not lease for 2 years at a time?
After GM's lobbying, disinformation, and eventual destruction of all EV1s in 2003, EVs are finally back and here to stay. China just announced plans to build a charging infrastructure for 5 million EVs by 2020. California is pushing EVs hard and trying to get a million of them on the road by offering subsidies for low income individuals with polluting cars along with a number of other subsidies. Over in Boulder Colorado, three counties and a solar advocate teamed up with a Nissan dealer to offer an $8500 instant rebate toward buying a new Leaf, driving up sales 300%! The demand is there if only prices would drop a little further, so I hope that Nissan rebate offer will be replicated around the country.
Even Tesla Model S may be in reach of more people than we think. The mass media likes to portray Model S and X as $100k+ cars, which is true if you buy all the options, but the base Model S is actually $70k and Model X will be $75k when the year-long waitlist has been worked through, and that's before the $7500 federal tax credit and state credit. I managed to find a used base Model S on the Certified Pre-Owned site for $50k and, while I know that isn't an "affordable" price for most people, I personally felt it was worth investing a huge chunk of my income towards financing it because I've felt the urgency of getting off fossil fuel for the last 15 years. Even driving a Prius was making me feel increasingly guilty about driving anywhere as the weather gets more and more crazy. Plus I picked up my Tesla on Back to the Future day (Oct 21st), and that was amazing.
350.org's fossil-fuel divestment plan has been remarkably effective with $2.6 Trillion of divestments now pledged. Coal no longer makes any economic sense as a power source and that, coupled with divestment campaigns, has pushed coal stocks down to the garbage level in the US and mostly stopped new coal power development in most areas. That sucks for coal workers, yet solar and wind installation jobs greatly exceed former coal mining jobs and don't cause pesky side effects like lung cancer.
Even the Goliath of oil is weakening in the face of divestment and oil demand that's stopped growing. Shell finally realized it no longer makes economic sense to drill in the arctic and the application for the Keystone XL tar-sands pipeline was recently dropped. Oil stocks are looking weak, profits are way down, and exploration is slowing. Yes, this also has to do with Saudi Arabia going in to debt to keep oil prices low, and that won't last forever. We can expect an oil price spike at some point - hopefully as EVs drop into the price range of gas cars (if you take into account total cost of ownership over a few years, EVs are already cheaper than gas for most people). But oil will never again keep growing endlessly in demand and it will never again be as profitable as big oil once expected. There will be more booms and busts, but the trend will be towards ultimate bust.
So, what can we do about climate change today?
* Rally for a Paris agreement
* Sponsor Paris delegates
* Shop for solar
* Get an EV with the help of California subsidies or look up subsidies in your corner of the world.
* Divest from fossil fuels stocks or encourage your church, school, city, or workplace to divest. Remember, friends don't let friends invest in fossil fuel stocks.