Just a day after I speculated heavily about Republican establishment efforts to rid themselves of their Donald Trump scourge, turns out Republicans are doing their own heavy speculation.
More than 20 [Republican leaders] convened Monday near the Capitol for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, and the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion, according to five people familiar with the meeting.
Weighing in on that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened, several longtime Republican power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.
RNC Chair Reince Priebus maintains the RNC is bound by existing rules, though they could be changed at the convention itself. And if Trump doesn’t have a majority of the delegates, well then, those committee meetings would be a perfect place for establishment forces to rig the rules of the convention against him. Sure, it would piss off a major segment of the GOP electorate (witness Ben Carson today) , and yes, it would doom the GOP’s presidential hopes, but at least it would allow the rest of the GOP ticket to disassociate itself from Trump, salvaging down-ballot races.
But can Trump really get to the convention without a majority of delegates?
I was under the impression that GOP primaries were all winner-take-all, but it’s a little more complicated than that. All contests through March 14 will award their delegates on a proportional basis. That equals 23 states and territories and 42 percent of the delegates (1,041 out of 2,474).
Starting on March 15, states can award their delegates in a winner-take-all basis. It’s up to each individual state GOP to decide how to do this. As of now, most of the remaining states are winner take all, including delegate-rich Florida (99 delegates), Illinois (69), Missouri (52, but only if winner gets 50 percent+), Ohio (66), Arizona (58), Pennsylvania (71), and California (172 to the winner of statewide vote, 169 more delegates based on winners of each congressional districts).
At this point, a winner-take-all system will benefit Trump, while a proportional system hurts him by helping runner-ups keep the delegate count closer. Throw in the 168 unbound super delegates, and that might be enough to keep the race within reach of an establishment coup.
So I took the RCP Delegate Calculator and did a super-simplistic analysis:
In Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina I defaulted to current polling aggregate. In every subsequent state I gave Trump 40 percent, Marco Rubio 30 percent (assuming he consolidates establishment support), Ted Cruz 15 percent (the fundie base), and 15 percent to random others.
In that scenario, heading into the March 15 Super Tuesday primaries, Trump would have won every state, yet hold just 541 of 1,041 delegates, or less than 50 percent. (The reality is we’ll be down to three candidates at most at this point, and the numbers will be all over the place depending on the state, but like I said, I was being simplistic to illustrate that winning in a multi-candidate field doesn’t guarantee Trump a majority of delegates.)
So Trump could very well need the winner-take-all states to pull away from the opposition in numbers that would guarantee a convention victory. So if I’m the RNC, I try to make that as difficult as possible. I start polling heavily in those later states, see who has the upper hand. If it’s Trump, I put pressure on those states to change their rules back to proportionate representation. If it’s an alternative, I urge them to go winner-take-all.
That would obviously be easier said than done, of course. For one, the rules in various states might make that difficult or impossible. Or, crazy state parties (like the ultra-conservative California GOP) might want to lend Trump a helping hand. But this is a desperate national GOP we’re talking about, so they might not have another choice.
Another side effect: it would be very clear to Trump that the national party was conspiring against him, and he could start gathering petitions for an independent bid. But would that be so bad for the national GOP? Remember, at this point they’ve already surrendered hopes of winning the White House. Their panic is more about protecting their down-ballot candidates. Having Trump take his marbles and go independent would be a positive for them, particularly since those Trump voters would still vote for the rest of the Republican ticket while giving the GOP the ability to distance themselves from him.
In any case, it’s clear at this point that it’s not just liberal bloggers speculating at the GOP’s expense. Republicans themselves are starting to work out the math, trying to find the path to denying Trump their party’s nomination.