The poll was conducted Dec. 7–10. The poll sampled registered Iowa voters who said they would definitely or probably attend the 2016 caucuses. Selzer has an A+ rating from 538.
Summary in Bloomberg Politics
Detailed results
Democratic race
Clinton |
48% |
Sanders |
39% |
O’Malley |
4% |
Sample: 404 likely Democratic caucus participants
Margin of error: +/- 4.9
In Selzer’s previous Iowa poll conducted in October, Clinton lead Sanders 42% to 37%. The October poll included Biden.
64% of Clinton supporters and 55% of Sanders supporters indicated that their mind was made up, with the rest indicating that they could be persuaded to vote for another candidate.
Clinton leads with women, voters 65 and older, and voters with an income over $100,000. Sanders leads with liberals, voters under 45, and first-time caucus goers and independents who say they plan to participate in the Democratic caucuses.
Republican race
Cruz |
31% |
Trump |
21% |
Carson |
13% |
Rubio |
10% |
Bush |
6% |
Sample: 400 likely Republican caucus participants
Marin of error: +/- 4.9
Results for the Republican race were published Friday.
Quotes from Ann Selzer about the Democratic candidates:
"Bernie Sanders has proven to be a worthy adversary. He's attracting people who, as a coalition, together, can be a force to be reckoned with, if he can turn them out. They're notoriously difficult."
"She just can't drop her guard; he's there. She's got to keep her game on all the way through caucus night."
Note: Selzer’s methodology is different from most other pollsters, who usually restrict their samples of likely primary or caucus voters to voters who’ve previously participated in their party’s primaries and caucus. This avoids the issue of excluding younger voters and independents who haven’t previously voted in the caucuses. Selzer has a reputation as the most accurate pollster of the Iowa caucuses.