Dean Skelos, former New York State Senate Majority Leader, was convicted on eight federal corruption charges earlier this month. Upon this conviction, Skelos automatically lost his seat in the senate. This is particularly interesting because this southwestern Nassau County seat went for President Obama in 2012 54%-46%. In addition, the partisan breakdown of the state senate is currently tied (with the IDC and Sen. Simcha Felder (D-Borough Park) caucusing with the Republicans.
Presumably, a victory in a special election for democrats could give the Dems a numerical majority in the New York State Senate—something that technically happened 2012, but never materialized as Democratic control due to the Republican-IDC power-sharing agreement.
Demographics:
SD-9 runs up to the Queens border on the southwestern portion of Nassau County and extends east to Baldwin and South Hempstead. The breakdown of the district in terms of population is as follows, according to the most recent redistricting data from 2012: 67% white, 11% black, 14% hispanic, 5% asian, and about 3% identifying as other. In terms of partisan breakdown, the New York State Board of Elections has the district breakdown as such:
SD-9 Partisan Breakdown
Party |
Democratic |
Republican |
Conservative |
Blank |
Independence |
Other |
Total Voters |
Total Active Voters |
92,971 |
74,764 |
2,321 |
49,800 |
8,289 |
984 |
229,129 |
Percent of SD-9* |
41% |
33% |
1% |
22% |
4% |
0% |
100% |
*Does not add to 100% due to rounding
As always, with New York State, it’s worth providing further information for those who aren’t familiar with our ballot. New York has fusion ballot voting, which allows for minor parties to nominate major party candidates. This is particularly important with the Independence Party--note: not the Independent Party--and the Conservative Party. “Blank” voters are voters who chose not to register with a political party--or were not fooled by the Independence Party’s name, which happens more often than one would think.
There is a clear Dem voter registration advantage; however, blanks make up a large portion of this district. It’s important to remember that this is Long Island--which is historically Republican, and many voters here are not averse to ticket splitting for local republicans and voting democratic nationally. In the last presidential election, Skelos won 55%-44% while Obama carried the district.
While this is a traditional GOP stronghold, despite the democratic registration advantage, recently, in the Nassau County DA’s race to replace now-Congresswoman Kathleen Rice, Acting-DA Madeline Singas defeated long-time Hempstead Town Supervisor Kate Murray handily, 58%-42%. What’s notable about this is much of the Democratic Party has been wiped out over the years through a series of off-year elections. Murray was closely tied to the Nassau County machine--much of which Skelos helped maintain and build over the years. The Skelos trial became a major issue in the race to succeed Rice, and is attributed to Singas’ win.
The Potential Candidates:
It’s fairly common knowledge that the dream candidate for dems in this seat is Todd Kaminsky. Kaminsky is a freshman state assemblyman and former federal prosecutor (paywall). Among the more famous cases Kaminsky is noted for is the trial and conviction of former Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada (D-Soundview). Kaminsky is considering running for the seat--he wouldn’t have to give up his fairly safe seat in the assembly to run--and can likely raise the money necessary to win, and run on his record as a federal prosecutor known for getting convictions on government corruption.
The GOP candidate is less clear. Right now, all signs are pointing towards current assemblyman and former Lynbrook Mayor Brian Curran (R-Lynbrook). As far as Curran goes, he’s a pretty standard Long Island republican--meaning he’s more Nelson Rockefeller or Richard Hanna than Steve King. He’s gotten some notable opposition from the right due to his yes vote on the SAFE Act, a large gun safety measure that was pushed through after the horrific shootings in Newtown, Connecticut. That said, the SAFE Act, unlike in its more conservative counterpart in upstate New York, is not as unpopular downstate.
Curran also hugged Governor Cuomo tightly in the past, calling Cuomo, “The best Republican governor we’ve had in a long time” which is likely to end up in an ad, along with this picture of him being sworn in by former Majority Leader Skelos. These two actions are likely to be anathema to Conservatives (both in party and ideology) and democrats alike. It’s going to be difficult for Curran to separate himself from Skelos and the Nassau County machine, especially given the effectiveness in the attacks used by Acting DA Singas in the recent DA’s race here.
Given Kaminsky’s experience, and Curran’s obvious ties to Skelos, it wouldn’t surprise me if Curran went full Karl Rove and hit Kaminsky for voting for former Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. While this seems hypocritical on Kaminsky’s part, it’s important to note that the Assembly Democrats hold 2/3s of the Assembly, and voting against the Speaker, once it’s been decided in conference, is tantamount to calling in sick on your first day of work.
Conclusion
Given the circumstances surrounding this special election, it would be Kaminsky’s race to lose should he choose to get in. The demographic trends of the district, his profile, and the culture surrounding his likely opponent make Kaminsky a particularly appealing candidate. What remains to be seen is if the Nassau County Democratic Party can successfully turn out voters in the (likely) April 19th special election--no guarantee given the spectacular failings of the Party in off-year elections in recent years. Hopefully Kaminsky’s election can be the first domino allowing for actual Democratic control of the state senate.