The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated Friday that 211,000 seasonally adjusted new jobs were added to the economy in November. Of those, 197,000 were in private sector and 14,000 in the public-sector. November was thus the 68th straight month of new private job creation and 62nd straight month that new public jobs have been added. The official unemployment remained unchanged at 5.0 percent.
The BLS revised its earlier October tally of new jobs from 271,000 to 298,000 and in September from 137,000 to 145,000 Taken together, all those numbers seem certain to give the Fed the assurance it needs to raise interest rates this month, though the increase will no doubt be small, a 1/4 percent boost being the likely rise. Jim Puzzanghera writes:
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen on Thursday downplayed the risk of the U.S. falling into recession next year and indicated central bank policymakers are ready to raise a key interest rate this month, in part to give them flexibility to lower it if the economy slows. [...]
“We are contemplating raising them. But we have said that we expect that process to be gradual,” she said. “And we want to make sure that, having achieved this progress in the labor market, we maintain it and don't put it in danger.”
However, Elise Gould at the Economic Policy Institute wrote Thursday that it’s still too early for the Fed to be raising interest rates given the weakness in wages:
The reality is that we need to see strong wage growth that is consistent and strong enough so that labor share of income returns to pre-recession levels and the labor market achieves a full recovery. Then, and only then, should we begin a conversation about raising rates
Wages for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 4 cent an hour in November to $25.25 after rising 9 cents an hour in October. Wages for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees remained unchanged at $21.19.
The bureau also reported that the civilian workforce rose 273,000, after having risen 216,000 in October. The employment-population ratio remained at 59.3 percent, and the labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.5 percent.
The bureau maintains several different measures of unemployment. Besides the official, “headline” unemployment rate (a measure the BLS labels U3), another known as U6 estimates both unemployment and underemployment. This gauge includes people with no job at all, part-time workers who want a full-time job but can't find one, and many "discouraged" workers. U6 edged up in November by 0.1 percent to 9.9 percent. The number of people officially unemployed remained unchanged at 7.9 million.
The BLS warns that its "confidence level" is plus or minus 105,000. That means the "real" number of new jobs created in October was not 211,000 but rather fell into a range between 106,000 and 316,000.
The bureau also measures the job situation each month for Americans aged 25-54, people in their "prime working years." The employment-population ratio for this cohort reached a high point of 81.9 percent in April 2000. In December 2007, the ratio had fallen to 79.7 percent, and it hit the bottom at 74.8 percent in November 2010. Since then, the rate has been slowly rising. In November, however, it rose to 77.4 percent, its first rise since February and its best showing since December 2008.
Key aspects of the report:
Hours & Wages
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose/fell by 4 cents to $21.19 in November. It had risen 9 cents in October.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls edgeddown to 34.5 hours in November.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls remained at $25.25
• The manufacturing workweek remained the same at 40.7 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.
Duration of unemployment in November
• Less than five weeks: 2,406 million, up from 2.326 million in October
• 5 to 14 weeks: 2,262 million, down from 2.311 million in October
• 15 to 26 weeks: 1,270 million, up from 1.218 million in October
• 27 weeks and more: 2,050 million, down from 2.142 million in October
Job gains and losses in November for selected categories:
• Professional services: + 27,000
• Transportation & warehousing : + 6,400
• Leisure & hospitality: + 39,000
• Information: - 12.000
• Health care & social assistance: + 32,200
• Retail trade: + 30,700
• Construction: + 46,000
• Manufacturing: - 1,000
• Mining and Logging: - 11,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in November for the previous 10 years.
November 2005: + 337,000
November 2006: + 209,000
November 2007: + 117,000
November 2008: - 765,000
November 2009: - 6,000
November 2010: + 121,000
November 2011: + 146,000
November 2012: + 164,000
November 2013: + 317,000
November 2014: + 423,000
November 2015: + 211,000