The Bureau of Reclamation today released its preliminary data on the water allocations for Central Valley Project contractors.
Snowpack and precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are historically low and the snow water content statewide stands at 19% of average for this time of year, according to David Murillo, Regional Director for the Bureau's Mid-Pacific Region. Without heavy precipitation over the next few months, NOAA forecasts extreme drought conditions continuing in both the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.
"Unfortunately, many agricultural water contractors may face a second year of receiving no water from the project – an unprecedented situation," according to the Bureau. "In addition, reduced amounts of water are expected to be available from the CVP for urban uses, although Reclamation anticipates having adequate supplies to provide for unmet health and safety needs for these water users."
Officials from Reclamation held a media call at noon today to brief reporters on the initial Central Valley Project allocation. I was on that call, along with other reporters from throughout the state.
Here is what they had to say, as transcribed on the Maven's Notebook water blog: http://mavensnotebook.com/...
Below that is the news release from the Bureau of Reclamation.
Transcript of media conference call
DAVID MURILLO, Regional Director for Mid-Pacific Region, started off …
Today’s picture is not a pretty one. Based on all indicators, we’re looking at fourth year of drought, and our initial allocation reflects that reality. The Mid Pacific Region started off the water year with about 3 million acre-feet of carryover storage in six key CVP reservoirs, and those six reservoirs are Shasta, Trinity, Folsom, Millerton, New Melones, and the federal share of San Luis Reservoir.
Snowpack and precipitation in the Sierra Nevada are historically low and the snow water content statewide stands at 19% of average for this time of year. Without heavy precipitation over the next few months, NOAA forecasts extreme drought conditions continuing in both the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.
In short, we’re dealing with a critical dry year for contractor water allocations. Unfortunately many agricultural water service contractors may be looking at a second year of receiving no water from the Central Valley Project, an unprecedented situation. In addition, there will be less water made available from the CVP for urban uses, though we do anticipate having adequate supplies to meet health and safety needs for these water users.
The rain events in December were encouraging, but the persistent dry weather for the first two months of this year underscores our need to plan for another critical year of drought. We have been working closely for months with our state and federal agency partners to try and minimize impacts and will continue to do so.
PABLO ARROYAVE, Deputy Regional Director for the Mid-Pacific Region
Our initial CVP allocations are primarily based on reservoir storage levels and DWR’s February 2015 90% runoff forecast, and that forecast indicates that we are squarely in a critically dry water year type for both the Sacramento Valley and the San Joaquin Valley. Based on low forecasted inflows into Shasta Lake, which is the state’s largest reservoir, this year we’ll continue what started last year as a Shasta critical year. A Shasta critical year designation is what determines the maximum contract quantities for many of our senior water rights holders and wildlife refuges within the Central Valley.
The key point here is I will be focusing on our CVP allocations for our water service contractors. Our senior water rights holders that I just described, over half of the contracts that Reclamation has in the CVP are for those senior water rights contractors and those water users, those farmers in the Sac Valley and the San Joaquin Valley will receive water in 2015, just at a reduced quantity per their contract entitlements.
This is our initial allocation based on what we know today. We certainly hope the conditions improve and hydrology shifts a little closer to average or above-average for the next few months, and we will be updating everyone as soon as there is cause to update at any point in the next several months.
I’m going to focus on our initial allocations for our water service contractors. For our north of Delta agricultural water service contractors, their initial allocation is 0% of their contract supply. For our municipal and industrial service contractors north of the Delta, their initial allocation allows for enough water to meet their health and safety needs, or at least 25% of their historic use which ever is greater.
For south of Delta water service contractors, and this focuses on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, the initial allocation for those contractors is 0% of their contract quantity. For the M&I water service contractors south of the Delta, initial allocation is enough water to meet their health and safety needs, or at least 25% of their historic use, whichever is greater.
For our Friant division contractors that are served out of the upper San Joaquin and Millerton Reservoir, our initial water supply allocation to those users is 0% of Class 1 and Class 2 water. Reclamation will be working with the Friant contractors to determine the amount of available water that is needed to meet their health and safety needs within the Friant area.
For our eastside water service contractors that are served out of New Melones Reservoir, initial allocation is 0% of their contract quantity due to a lack of available CVP supplies out of New Melones.
With that, I’ll turn it over to Ron Mulligan, Operations Chief, who can provide additional context.
RON MILLIGAN, Operations Manager for the Central Valley Project
Just to give a little flavor for the basis of the allocation, as Pablo said, this is based on February 1st projected runoff estimates from the Department of Water Resources and primarily driven by the February 1st runoff forecasts of the snowpack.
As we progressed through the month, we’ve accumulated probably less than average snow for the month of February, so we anticipate unfortunately that the March 1st snowpack surveys are going to be even less fruitful as they were in February. We did get a good rainstorm at the beginning of February but we’ve been dry for the most part since then.
We’re tracking these reservoir levels pretty closely as well as the base flow inflows off the mountains, so it’s not looking as good as it did last year where we saw a little bit of recovery in the February March time frame. When we did this initial allocation a year ago, we at least had a fairly wet February behind us, and we certainly don’t have that today. So this allocation announcement, probably a little less water availability then we saw a year ago.
Discussion highlights
The call was then opened up for questions.
First question was about the reaction in the agricultural community. They point out that in the last big drought, by 1992, Shasta Lake levels were similar to now, yet south of Delta ag contractors got 25% of their contracted amounts, as compared to 0%. Is that true? If so, why?
Ron Mulligan answers:
Although there are some similarities to some of the storage levels and the prolonged nature of dry periods between what we’re seeing here recently and the drought of the late 80s and early 90s, there are some differences. One of those is that I think the snowpack in a lot of our forecasted allocation work is based on projected runoff, and what we’ve have seen, although a snapshot in time about storage compared to 1992 right now may be similar but I think that the projected runoff from the limited snowpack is certainly going to play into this. We think it could be more severe.
Secondly, although the drought is significant, certainly in 1992 we had fewer people in the state of California, and that’s not just southern California, that’s probably also in the Sac Valley, so there are a few more demands in the Sacramento Valley from an urban stance that take up some quantities of water. The State Water Project is a little more built out than it was at that time.
And in fact, there are a few more regulatory requirements today than we had back in 1992, and taking it all into consideration though, back in 1992 a typical allocation for ag water service contractors both north and south of the Delta was 100%, so if by some measures, you might say well gee, if they had 25% allocation at that time, then 75% of the problem was drought, maybe a little less water is available because of the regulatory requirements of over 20 years, but we’re really seeing a significant drought sequence right now, and that’s what’s driving the severe nature of this announcement.
What does this announcement mean for the Sacramento Valley settlement contractors?
Pablo Arroyave answers:
What it means is that it’s basically the same situation we were in last year. We are acknowledging that the Shasta critical year identifies a contract maximum in that situation and that is 75% of their contract supply. The key, as it was last year, will be working very closely with all of our senior water rights holders on their demand patterns to allow us to deliver as much water as possible under those contracts.
David Murillo adds:
The contract amount is 75% of whatever the contract amount is. That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what they get at the beginning of this water year. We’re working with them to try and identify what that water volume is and then what we do, the remainder of the year, we work with them to see how they can schedule the water and see how conditions either improve or not, and work our way up to that 75%. That’s what we did last year, so it’s going to be similar this year.
When you look at the reservoir levels this year, particularly in Shasta and San Luis, this year versus last year, this year is in much better shape. Last year, Shasta was at 53% of average, this year it’s at 79%, San Luis is at 74% of average and San Luis was at 39% last year, so the reservoirs are significantly better than last year … ?
David Murillo answers:
That's a good question, because I think that’s what people look at. They take a look at what the reservoir levels are, they say there’s water available there, so why can’t you just bring the water across. What we do is we look at it holistically, so we take a look at what is in the reservoirs themselves and we couple that with what the snowpack is and what the runoff forecast is going to be, and then you add those all together and you come out with a volume of water and that’s how you come out with the allocations.
The unfortunate thing about this year is yeah, if you look at the number of reservoirs we talked about today, the volume of water we have in there to date is more than what we had last year, but if you take a look at the snowpack, it’s not as good, and you take a look at the runoff forecast, that’s not looking as good either, so you couple those together, and that’s why you come out with the numbers that we have.
Press release from Bureau of Reclamation on Central Valley Project Allocations;
Mid-Pacific Region
Sacramento, Calif.
MP-15-023
Media Contact: Erin Curtis, 916-978-5100, eccurtis@usbr.gov
For release On: Feb. 27, 2015
Reclamation Announces Initial Water Supply Allocation for Central Valley Project
SACRAMENTO, Calif. – The Bureau of Reclamation today announced the initial 2015 water supply allocation for Central Valley Project agricultural contractors and municipal and industrial contractors. This initial allocation is based on a conservative estimate of the amount of water that will be available for delivery to CVP water users. The allocation, which will be re-examined on a monthly basis as the water year progresses, reflects current reservoir storages, precipitation and snowpack conditions in the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada.
The California Department of Water Resources reports snowpack is below average for this date with the snow water content statewide currently at 20 percent or less of average for this time of year. California is experiencing its fourth consecutive year of below-average precipitation, and the Governor’s Emergency Drought Proclamation, issued January 17, 2014, remains in effect. Without unusually heavy precipitation over the next few months, extreme drought conditions are forecasted to persist throughout the Central Valley.
Unfortunately, many agricultural water contractors may face a second year of receiving no water from the project – an unprecedented situation. In addition, reduced amounts of water are expected to be available from the CVP for urban uses, although Reclamation anticipates having adequate supplies to provide for unmet health and safety needs for these water users.
Reclamation’s initial CVP allocations are primarily based on CVP reservoir storage levels and DWR’s February 2015 Runoff Forecast, which indicates another critically dry water year for both the Sacramento Valley and the San Joaquin Valley. Reclamation began Water Year 2015 in October 2014, with only 3.1 million acre-feet of carryover storage in six key CVP reservoirs. This was 26 percent of capacity and 47 percent of the 15-year average for October 1. Since that time, the State has seen several significant rain events but also extended periods of very dry weather. January 2015 was the driest January in recorded history for northern California. With low storage and extremely low snowpack, Reclamation’s water managers will work with the State of California and all contractors to effectively carry out project operations and improve water supply consistent with all applicable laws.
Based on low forecasted inflows to Shasta Lake, the State’s largest reservoir, Reclamation is also projecting this year to be a second consecutive “Shasta Critical Year” for the purposes of determining maximum contract quantities for many senior water rights holders and wildlife refuges in the Central Valley. If current dry conditions persist, CVP water contractors, whose water supply is based upon senior water rights and the Shasta Critical criteria, will see their contract supply reduced. Although project supplies are limited, Reclamation is committed to working with these contractors to meet their demands through the summer.
“We are bracing for a potential fourth year of severe drought, and this low initial allocation is yet another indicator of the dire situation,” said Reclamation Mid-Pacific Regional Director David Murillo. “Reclamation and the Department of the Interior will continue to work with the State of California and our water users to do everything possible to increase water deliveries from the project as we move yet another difficult year. Our economy and our environment depend on it.”
Reclamation determines the allocation of CVP water for agricultural, environmental and municipal and industrial purposes based upon many factors. Today’s initial allocation, based on a conservative runoff forecast, is driven by critically dry hydrologic conditions, low storage levels, water quality requirements, flow objectives, relative priority of water rights and endangered species protection measures.
Reclamation and DWR are operating consistent with the 2015 Drought Contingency Plan submitted to the State Water Resources Control Board that outlines numerous actions to help the CVP and State Water Project manage limited water supplies during these drought conditions. This includes expanding operational flexibility to conserve stored water and take full advantage of excess and abandoned flows in the Delta.
“The rain events in December were encouraging, but the persistent dry weather the first two months of this year underscores our need to plan for another critical year of drought. We have been working closely for months with our State and federal agency partners to try to minimize impacts and will continue to do so,” Murillo said.
This initial set of CVP allocations is based on a conservative assumption that dry conditions will continue for the remainder of the water year. With almost two months remaining in California’s rainy season, there is still an opportunity for improved conditions. If conditions improve and hydrology is closer to or above average for the next several months, CVP supplies could improve, with increased supplies to M&I contractors and potentially some water available for allocation to agriculture water users.
North-of-Delta Contractors
Agricultural water service contractors North-of-Delta are allocated 0 percent of their contract quantity.
M&I water service contractors North-of-Delta will receive enough water to meet their health and safety needs or at least 25 percent of their historic use, whichever is greater.
South-of-Delta Contractors
Agricultural water service contractors South-of-Delta are allocated 0 percent of their contract quantity.
M&I water service contractors South-of-Delta will receive enough water to meet their health and safety needs or at least 25 percent of their historic use, whichever is greater.
Friant Division Contractors
Based on DWR’s February 2015 Runoff Forecast for the upper San Joaquin River, contractual requirements to prior right holders, and the overall forecasted operation of the CVP, the Friant Division water supply allocation is 0 percent of Class 1 and Class 2.
Reclamation will be working with the Friant contractors to determine what amount of water will made available to meet health and safety needs within the Friant service area.
Eastside Water Service Contractors
Eastside water service contractors (Central San Joaquin Water Conservation District and Stockton East Water District) will receive 0 percent of their contract quantity due to a lack of available CVP supplies out of New Melones.
As the water year progresses, changes to hydrology and opportunities to exercise operational flexibility of the CVP are factors and conditions that will influence future allocations. Water supply updates will be made as appropriate and posted on Reclamation’s website at http://www.usbr.gov/....
For additional information, please contact the Public Affairs Office at 916-978-5100 (TTY 800-877-8339) or email mppublicaffairs@usbr.gov.
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