Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson is flirting with a Senate bid in the Sunshine State
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It's no secret that Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is raising money and staffing up for a presidential bid. A final decision is expected soon, and whatever move Rubio makes will have serious repercussions in the Sunshine State. The senator has made it clear that he won't try running for the White House and for re-election at the same time, and if he does retire from Congress, there are no shortage of candidates on both sides who could run to succeed him.
Even if Rubio seeks a second term in the Senate, Democrats are expected to target him. Rep. Patrick Murphy has expressed interest in a campaign, and he'd be a formidable general election contender. Murphy is an excellent fundraiser who easily held his light red Port St. Lucie-based district in the midst of the 2014 Republican wave, and he could definitely give Rubio or anyone else a run for their money. However, while Murphy's reputation as a moderate could help him in November, it could be a liability in a Democratic primary against a more liberal candidate.
Fellow Rep. Alan Grayson, who holds an Orlando-area seat, may end up just being that candidate. Grayson has also talked about a Senate bid, and he can also raise tons of cash. Grayson's outspoken style would likely be an asset in the primary, but it could cause him problems in a general election campaign. South Florida congresswoman and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz did not close the door on a run when asked, and she's another contender who could haul in plenty of money.
There are a whole host of other potential Democratic contenders, though some would probably stay out if Rubio ran again. Freshman Rep. Gwen Graham has publicly ruled out a bid for the upper chamber, but Democratic operatives think she could change her mind. Graham holds a conservative North Florida seat and Republicans are expected to seriously target her, so a six-year Senate term could be enticing. Redistricting may also hurt Graham's hold on this Tallahassee-area district, and give her an incentive to run statewide instead. Graham is another candidate who is a proven fundraiser, though her centrist positions could also hurt her in the primary.
Rep. Ted Deutch, who also hails from South Florida, is also believed to be interested in running, but probably not against Rubio. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, state Sen. and 2010 attorney general nominee Dan Gelber, and newly elected Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum have also been mentioned as potential candidates, though it's not clear how interested any of them are. Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn could also run, but he seems to have his eyes on a 2018 gubernatorial bid instead.
If Rubio seeks re-election, he's unlikely to attract much primary opposition. But if he departs, a host of Republicans are expected to take a close look at his seat. Attorney General Pam Bondi and state Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater are both rising stars in the state party, and they're both expected to run for higher office soon. Bondi's camp didn't rule out anything when asked in late January, and plenty of political insiders think Atwater will seek the seat. Still, Bondi and Atwater may be more interested in the gubernatorial contest two years later; alternatively, either could run against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2018. Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam may also be interested in a Senate run, though he appears to favor the governorship.
There are plenty of other Republicans who could also jump in, and Roll Call recently named some. Rubio himself touted former state House Speaker Will Weatherford and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera. Wealthy Sarasota-area Rep. Vern Buchanan thought about running for governor in 2010, and he could try for a promotion soon; longtime Reps. John Mica and Jeff Miller could also get in. Miami-area state Sen. Anitere Flores is another rising star who could seek higher office soon. One more interesting option is outspoken conservative Allen West, whom Patrick Murphy unseated in 2012: As unlikely as it is, a West-Grayson Senate race would truly be a sight to behold.
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