Charlie Crist will stay out of the 2016 Senate race
Leading Off:
• FL-Sen: It never really felt like Charlie Crist could be serious about pursuing another run for office this cycle, so soon after his heartbreaking loss to GOP Gov. Rick Scott last year. Indeed, his associates tamped down such speculation just last week, and on Monday, Crist announced that he would not be a candidate in 2016, taking him out of the running for Florida's Senate race. Had Crist jumped in, this would have been his third campaign for this seat. Back in 1998, Crist was the GOP nominee against Bob Graham, losing 62-38. Crist ran again as a Republican twelve years later but became an independent after it was clear that he would lose the primary to Marco Rubio. Rubio ended up beating Crist in the general anyway by a 49-30 margin.
Crist didn't offer any endorsements, but Rep. Patrick Murphy has been courting his support as he prepares for a bid against Rubio—or, as seems more likely, for Rubio's open seat. Meanwhile, fellow Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson says that Crist's decision makes him a bit more likely to enter the contest.
Senate:
• HI-Sen, 02: Sophomore Rep. Tulsi Gabbard is certainly a rising star in Democratic politics, but it seems she's content to stay in the House for now. Gabbard had been rumored as a possible challenger to Sen. Brian Schatz, who only narrowly survived his primary against then-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa last year after he was appointed to succeed the late Sen. Dan Inouye. Schatz's victory was only good for the final two years of Inouye's term, though, but he can seek a full six-year stint next year.
So if any fellow Democrats were going to try to stop Schatz from cementing his place in Hawaii politics, now would have been the time. But Schatz would not have been easy to beat, and Gabbard—if she ever even seriously considered the idea in the first place—has evidently opted against a confrontation, seeing as Schatz is headlining a fundraiser for her next month. Also expected is a high-profile figure who joined Congress at the same time Gabbard did: Massachusetts Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III.
But some of Gabbard's other choices in friends are quite a bit odder. She's buddies with Aaron Schock and even created something called the "Congressional Future Caucus" with him. That's an association you'd think she might be less thrilled with nowadays, though Gabbard apparently has not given up on Schock. In fact, she'd been scheduled to appear on a panel about millennials with him at the South by Southwest festival this past weekend.
Schock, however, pulled out in the face of tons of unwanted scrutiny over his spending habits and was replaced by another Republican, freshman Texas Rep. Will Hurd. What's still weird, though, is that the panel's organizer was Generation Opportunity, the Koch-backed group best known for its infamous "Creepy Uncle Sam" ads. Why would any Democrat want to treat with the likes of them?
• MD-Sen: An interesting piece from the Baltimore Sun's John Fritze on Maryland's shifting political geography starts by noting that the first time the state directly elected a senator back in 1913, voters picked an attorney from the Washington, DC suburbs. It was also the last time Maryland chose a senator from the DC area, though that might change next year.
While Baltimore has long been the state's political center of gravity, Fritze explores a trio of reasons why Washington candidates now have an advantage: population growth in the region (and a decline in Baltimore); better access to wealthy donors; and a name-recognition edge in a much more expensive media market. There are still many ways the Democratic primary could unfold, and if a single Baltimore-based candidate emerges, that could cause problems for the two DC-area contenders already in the race, Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen. But at least on paper, things are starting to lean in DC's direction.
Gubernatorial:
• OR-Gov: Republicans won't have an easy time unseating newly elevated Gov. Kate Brown in next year's special election, but at least one so far is considering a bid, physician Bud Pierce. Pierce doesn't have a public profile, but he was a former head of the Oregon Medical Association, so he certainly knows plenty of doctors (not a bad way to get your fundraising off to a good start). That resume item, though, is one he shares with 2014 GOP Senate nominee Monica Wehby, who was almost a textbook example of why it can be so risky to pin your hopes on a first-time candidate.
House:
• CA-52: In this era of drawn-out "Gaius Julius Caesar for Dictator Exploratory Committee" nonsense, you don't usually see potential candidates offer traditional Shermanesque statements anymore. But after Emily Cahn reported that the NRCC was talking to San Diego City Attorney Jan Goldsmith about a possible run against Democratic Rep. Scott Peters, Goldsmith's camp responded:
He has, "No plans to run. No plans to make plans. If nominated, he will not accept. If elected, he will seek a recount," said Gerry Braun, communications director for the San Diego City Attorney's office.
Those are some interesting comments. On the one hand, "no plans" is definitely not "no"; it means something more like, "I haven't made up my mind yet but publicly I want people to think I'm leaning against it." On the other hand, "If nominated, he will not accept" is pretty unambiguous. But national Republicans might keep pressing anyhow, since as Cahn reports, Goldsmith has a pretty appealing profile.
However, the NRCC has also met with Marine vet Jacquie Atkinson, so Goldsmith isn't their only target (though perhaps Atkinson failed to pass inspection). What's more, Goldsmith also passed on a run for mayor in San Diego's 2013 special election, so maybe it's wisest to take him at his word.
• IA-03: As we had suspected, state Sen. Brad Zaun is still smarting over getting robbed of the GOP nomination in Iowa's 3rd District last year, so it's not surprise that he says he hasn't ruled out a challenge to Rep. David Young. As you'll recall, Zaun took first place in the 2014 Republican primary, but because he fell short of a unique 35 percent threshold, the nomination was thrown to a special party convention. Delegates proceeded to select Young, who had finished last in the primary, much to Zaun's chagrin.
Indeed, Zaun was so pissed off that he threatened to run as an independent in the general election, though he eventually backed down. But Democrats would be delighted if he caused trouble for Young, because this 51-47 Obama seat remains high on the party's target list.
• IL-18: Speaking of Aaron Schock, things have taken a more serious turn for the Illinois Republican. According to Politico, the Office of Congressional Ethics has started talking to people in Schock's "orbit," presumably about the congressman's questionable spending. Neither Schock nor the OCE would comment.
• MI-10: The bell's already ringing in the race to replace GOP Rep. Candice Miller, who announced her retirement earlier this month. Republican state Sen. Phil Pavlov had been salivating at the chance to run for Congress and just became the first candidate to announce a campaign. Tons of other Republicans are also looking, though, so Pavlov definitely won't be the only dog in this fight.
Other Races:
• Philadelphia Mayor: Former city Councilor Jim Kenney has been widely regarded as labor's candidate in the Democratic primary field, and as the race starts in earnest with the filing deadline past, Kenney is starting to pick up the endorsements. Last Friday, he got perhaps the biggest one when the Philadelphia Council AFL-CIO gave its imprimatur to Kenny. The union represents 130,000 workers in Philadelphia, so their backing could make a real difference.
Kenney's good fortune continued on Monday, with an endorsement from the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers, the local for the AFL-CIO-aligned American Federation of Teachers. The national AFT has talked about airing spots against state Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams, an avowed supporter of charter schools, but this may be a sign that they'll also give Kenney some air support. The AFT threw down $480,000 in Boston's 2013 mayoral race, and that kind of dough can make a real difference in a contest like this where none of the candidates have raised much money.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty