Personal Note: I have experienced a devastating data loss regarding my now six-year long book project (don't ask - data encryption gone wrong). I was holding back on publishing this diary, thinking it needed to be edited down some more but I find myself unable to write or do the editing I had planned. Nevertheless, I'm hoping enough peope will read it to stimulate some good conversation. I apologize for the length.
"We’re only here for a short while. And I think it’s such a lucky accident, having been born, that we’re almost obliged to pay attention. In some ways, this is getting far afield. I mean, we are — as far as we know — the only part of the universe that’s self-conscious. We could even be the universe’s form of consciousness. We might have come along so that the universe could look at itself. I don’t know that, but we’re made of the same stuff that stars are made of, or that floats around in space. But we’re combined in such a way that we can describe what it’s like to be alive, to be witnesses. Most of our experience is that of being a witness. We see and hear and smell other things. I think being alive is responding."
Pulitzer-Winning Poet Mark Strand on the Heartbeat of Creative Work and the Artist’s Task to Bear Witness to the Universe
What follows is something of a meditation on the future, though a flawed one. I offer it here in the spirit of the artist's task to bear witness to the universe. I freely stipulate that I don't know WTF I'm talking about.
I once attended a fascinating lecture at Auburn University by the esteemed futurist, Alvin Toffler, author of the celebrated 1970 book, Future Shock. It was a memorable book and his was one of the best lectures I ever attended. What I took away from it is still with me. If anything, its subject matter is more relevant today then it was then. I'm sure there are other books that have undergone a steady growth in relevancy, year by year for forty-five years or more, but I can't think of any...unless it's Silent Spring, which of course goes back even further.
Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.
Alvin Toffler
Toffler's basic premise was that the
rate of technological change would continue to increase exponentially by its very nature. The problem with that, Toffler explained, was that people, and therefore societies, have a finite capacity for coping with change. When the scope and speed of change overruns our capacity to cope and adapt, you have a condition known as future shock in which the individual or the society begins to breakdown
Technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more technology possible.
Alvin Toffler
For the most part, the changes taking place in our world are driven by science and technology, which, taken together, change almost everything else. Just consider what computers have done to the workscape, the classroom, the home office. They have found a welcome home in virtually every field of human endeavor. One of their salient features as tools is how they enable us to acquire and manage great volumes of data and thus to facilitate and manage change of all sorts.
Machines cope better with change than humans do. All this change that comes ever faster takes a toll on the human psyche. People do break down, and many teeter on the verge of it. I think the average person in our time is wound tighter than a clock. We are running at maximum stress levels. That's why, even with information more available than ever (because of those computers and the 'net 'n stuff), so many otherwise intelligent people have tuned out most of what they don't absolutely have to know that day.
A lot of people just can't cope with the information firehose that sprays so much appalling data. Many switch off in self defense. They can't bear to think about unjust wars or torture or how Wall Street is ripping them off. They would rather not be bothered by larger realities that they feel no control over, whatsoever. Getting through each day, week and month is more than enough challenge for them. I'm not judging them, I'm empathizing with them. We all feel it to some extent. Drinking from the firehouse overload. Future shock.
Toffler predicted a point of breakdown and I think we are seeing that happening all over the place – but it's not absolute, it doesn't affect everything in the same way. Some things are falling apart and some other things are pulling together. The world has never been so connected, for one example, and the explosive growth in virtually every field of science and technology for plenty of others.
Knowledge is the most democratic source of power.
Alvin Toffler
The genius, R. Buckminster Fuller, inventor of the geodesic dome and coiner of the phrase 'Spaceship Earth,' was of the opinion that we would always manage to solve our problems, some of them just in the nick of time, via science and technology coupled with human creativity, imagination and innovation.
Computers and network technology, just to mention two things, have saved our asses in many ways – more or less just as Bucky predicted. Our inventions have managed to ratchet up our 'do not exceed speed,' and helped us to manage the results. Of course we remain in the midst of many dynamic challenges and have reached criticality in many important aspects of our existence such as climate and ecology. Will we manage to innovate our way out of our present circumstances? Can we solve our dilemmas in time to pull our collective ass out of the fire? It's hard to say. But we sure as hell ought to try...and many of us are.
However grim things may look at any point in time, there are always mitigating factors and other things that we are overlooking. One thing we know for sure about the future is that it's not going to turn out like we think. Reality is too deep and dense for us to unravel it as neatly as all that. Our vision is necessarily through a glass darkly. But still, we have to imagine the world we want. We need a vision of where we're going.
We are called to be architects of the future, not its victims.
R. Buckminster Fuller
Ninety-nine percent of who you are is invisible and untouchable.
R. Buckminster Fuller
If humanity does not opt for integrity we are through completely. It is absolutely touch and go. Each one of us could make the difference.
R. Buckminster Fuller
“Each one of us could make the difference.” I think that's a profound statement...and a true one.
Any one of us.
* * *
Even as our decaying society falls apart around us, hives of intense activity are bringing forth modern miracles, or orchids in the cracks. If we can just keep this ass-saving thing going, we might yet find our way through the minefield of a dying society to a glorious future beyond anything commonly imagined...all indications to the contrary notwithstanding.
When one is not swatting at the gazillion things that are wrong, and swatted at they should be, it's sometimes important to consider what's going well and what shows great promise and give thought to how that might change things. Again, you have to be able to imagine the kind of future you want. A few decades back, our most brilliant futurists didn't know about quantum computing, 3D printing, cloud-computing, mesh nets, maker culture, permaculture, blockchain technology or crypto-currency. I could be wrong about some or all of that, but the point remains that we are facing an extraordinary and wildly different future. It will include many good things that will enhance our existence in wonderful ways, if we can just manage it all. But it's coming hard and fast – ready or not.
If we're lucky, it could get really good.
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Should we manage to stabilize and/or cope with the global climate, deal effectively with our crises regarding food, water, energy, population and resource management, etc - should we squeak by existentially, a brave new world could well be coming. Fuller said build new models and the old ones will go away, and lots of people have been busy doing just that.
If those working for humanity can outwork and outsmart those working against it, we may see great new wonders.
It's an easy prediction that the Internet will continue to become more and more important, more and more central to society and culture. It will do more than all other technology combined to drive change for the forseeable future. There are geniuses hard at work to fix the vulnerabilities that have recently come to light. It is predictable that crypto-nerds will make the Internet bulletproof. And that everyone on the 'net will be uniquely identified via strong cryptography, enabling Internet voting which will enable real democracy which will change everything.
Each person will be in complete control of their personal information. They will be able to choose how much of it to share with whom at any given time. It will be an incorruptible, trustless system (because it doesn't require trust by design), based on an open, auditable algorithm, guaranteeing each user on the Internet total privacy...which is mostly good, but it does mean that bad guys have total privacy too...not such a good thing, but inevitable.
And it seems likely that we will see continuing radical decentralization that will create an honest to God democracy and eventually make governments and legacy institutions irrelevant as they are replaced by new models.
The [term] “radical decentralization” is a phrase that has been coined to describe a massive decentralization of power, shifting away from the old hierarchical systems, like governments and large corporations, to individuals and small groups. We see these changes all around us, yet few have realized the massive radical personal empowerment now taking place.
Radical Decentralization Is Coming
Many corporate, government and institutional functions may come to be replaced by algorithms and be run as Decentralized Autonomous Organizations:
A Decentralized Autonomous Organization (often abbreviated "DAO"; sometimes referred to as a Fully Automated Business Entity or Distributed Autonomous Corporation/Distributed Autonomous Company, often abbreviated "FAB" or "DAC") is a decentralized network of narrow-AI [Artificial Intellegence] autonomous agents which perform an output-maximizing production function and which divides its labor into computationally intractable tasks (which it incentivizes humans to do) and tasks which it performs itself. It can be thought of as a corporation run without any human involvement under the control of an incorruptible set of business rules. These rules are typically implemented as publicly auditable open-source software distributed across the computers of their stakeholders. A human becomes a stakeholder by buying stock in the company or being paid in that stock to provide services for the company. This stock may entitle its owner to a share of the profits of the DAO, participation in its growth, and/or a say in how it is run.
Wikipedia
Republicans won't like this. Probably plenty of others too. It's going to be hard times for control freaks.
So what will we do when we have actual democracy? What will the world see then?
The leisure society we've so long anticipated, perhaps?
Yes, we got cheated out of that last time around. But once we are an actual democracy, we can bring it back.
Heh. Srsly.
The following are just a few things that are likely to rock our world in ways both predictable and not so:
Self-driving electric cars
High speed rail
Cheap, clean, renewable energy
Quantum computing
Crypto-currencies (like Bitcoin)
Blockchain technology
Rapidly advancing science in virtually every field
Permaculture replaces corporate agriculture
Guaranteed Minimum Income
Universal health care, elder care, etc
Free education
Gross National Happiness as both a necessity and a human right
Open source democracy
In the software industry, the open source movement emphasises collective cooperation over private ownership. This radical idea may provide the biggest challenge to the dominance of Microsoft. Open source enthusiasts have found a more efficient way of working by pooling their knowledge to encourage innovation.
All this is happening at a time when participation in mainstream electoral politics is declining in many Western countries, including the US and Britain. Our democracies are increasingly resembling old media, with fewer real opportunities for interaction.
What, asks Douglas Rushkoff in this original essay for Demos, would happen if the ‘source code’ of our democratic systems was opened up to the people they are meant to serve? ‘An open source model for participatory, bottom-up and emergent policy will force us to confront the issues of our time,’ he answers.
That’s a profound thought at a time when governments are recognising the limits of centralised political institutions. The open source community recognises that solutions to problems emerge from the interaction and participation of lots of people, not by central planning.
Rushkoff challenges us all to participate in the redesign of political institutions in a way which enables new solutions to social problems to emerge as the result of millions interactions. In this way, online communication may indeed be able to change offline politics.
OPEN SOURCE DEMOCRACY (download the book for free HERE!)
The rise of virtual and augmented reality will transform the world with greater impact than most anyone yet realizes (education, training, research, design, leisure, entertainment, etc). And for artists and storytellers, it unleashes whole new realms. Now you can create 3D worlds, limited only by imagination, and place your viewer right in the middle of it – not just show someone a movie, but invite them into it. The possibilities are tantalizing. Virtual 3D movies...”Hollywood in a box.”
NOTE: My son has a developer's kit version of the Occulus Rift, and I am here to tell you, it is mind-blowing! It will change the world in ways we've yet to imagine. You've never seen a movie until you've been inside a 360 degree movie. And no one can tell you what this thing is like – you have to experience it. You're inside the movie, you can turn and look at anything you see and it's all 3D. Full and seamless immersion is a coming thing. The potential for learning applications and work aids and such is unlimited, especially when you add in 'augmented' reality (a mixing of virtual reality and actual reality) as in coming products such as Microsoft's HoloLens. (I know these are giant corporations, but it's the technology that's important. The giant corporations, as we know them, will eventually go away but the technology will still be with us. And man, is it going to get crazy. I'm hoping crazy good - but that's up to us.)
The rise of the Internet has been the genie getting out of the bottle. I'm thinking that cork ain't going back in. Though, as we all know, they will definitely try...have tried, are trying. I think they underestimate the geeks of the world and how rapidly their own power is dissipating. I don't think they understand that no matter what they do, information
will be free...and that goes double for people. Freedom, it seems, is an emergent property of reality.
Those who oppose freedom may be big and powerful...for now, but they won't always be. They wake up every day with less power. And our heroes, those science geeks, cypherpunks and networking geniuses fighting for freedom and humanity may not be big and powerful but they're smarter than hell, and every day they wake up with more power. Wikileaks, Anonymous, the Free Software Foundation, the Electronic Frontier Foundation and so many others, the known and the unknown, the seen and the unseen, all committed to a free Internet and a free humanity. Information will be free...and so shall each node on the unofficial global network of free-range humans, aka the Internet or the hivemind.
Assuming that none of the various anti-humanitarian organizations and forces manage to kill the Internet or the people in their zeal to control it or them, I think we will continue to see amazing things from the global hivemind. There are geeks smarter than their adversaries working on securing everyone's data via strong encryption and other technologies. And much of the rest is the emergent future...and the future is now.
A time may soon come when the NSA has nothing to do.
The present system of corporate, military and financial dominance is losing its grip. That's not to say they can't cause a lot of damage on their way out because they obviously can. I expect we'll see more and more of that for the foreseeable future as our outmoded ways and gridlocked institutions continue to meltdown and fall apart while its former beneficiaries continue to lose their cool.
A new reality is emerging though. This one's different. This one's going to be hard to stuff back into the box. This one has democracy written all over it.
There is of course a tremendous struggle going on between the Powers That Be, as they attempt to maintain their power, and those who oppose them in the name of humanity. The on-rushing and unforgiving future is going to have its own way with all of us...but history is on the side of human freedom. People, like information, will be free. The heroes will eventually win, for the villains in this case are truly dinosaurs. If nothing else, they'll die off. Let's just hope they don't kill us all off in the meantime.
In the future, should enough things go right, people will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income and may or may not choose to work at anything like what we would call a job. There won't be enough jobs for most people to have one. People will be free to work or not work, and to choose what work they do based on what has meaning to them. (This, if we can stop those in the 1% who'd rather just kill off labor now that it's not needed. That's how they think of us. Labor.)
Many jobs required for the function of society will become, are becoming, partially or wholly automated. The demand for labor will continue to collapse. The very nature of work will change due to advances in robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, etc. Work will become optional, not mandatory for survival.
If allowed, people will find each other and do what they think is important. Otherwise they'll dance, make art, play music, go on picnics, play with their kids, sit on the porch, volunteer, ride around in self-flying, solar-powered pods, vacation on Mars, you know, the usual...provided we can keep the 1% from killing us off.
We may learn to conduct ethical and benign business.
The mission driven non-profit model:
Is it possible that the Non-profit concept could fix some of what's wrong with capitalism? I don't know enough about it to proclaim it but what little I know has peaked my interest. Non-profits can exist at equilibrium. They only have to break even. They can survive without the growth that is so necessary in our Capitalist system, and which drives so much eco-destruction and so on - or that's my crude understanding of it. We are, in so many ways, in a post growth environment. We need desperately to achieve an equilibrium between ourselves and our finite, delicate and vulnerable ecosphere. We need to halt all harmful activities: fracking, strip mining, drilling for oil, etc. We cannot continue to consume our precious resources so recklessly or ignore our abusive impact on the earth.
Mission driven non-profits as open source, decentralized and democratic enterprise via smart contracts and DAOs could be an answer. Imagine:
* Non-profits replace for-profits
* No more private profits
* Leads to radical reduction in wealth inequities
* Reduction in status envy (this is huge, what if we were all doing wondefully, or even just okay, and no one had to worry about someone else making out like a bandit at their expense – a good, peaceful and more meaningful existence for all – no predators and no prey - no gold-plated yachts, no slums). In a world of greatly increased abundance, this need not be onerous for anyone – except maybe for the hideously over-privileged. And they can just get used to it.
Profits, like sausages... are esteemed most by those who know least about what goes into them.
Alvin Toffler
We share a delicate and compromised ecosphere. We cannot continue on our path of self-destruction. It's still possible that we can have a good future, but we will need to strive for it mightily and do all the right things. We've run out of wiggle room, we can't blow this. We need to reboot and we need to aim for a world that we'd actually want the people we love to live in – one thoughtfully and unselfishly managed for the equal benefit of all, with sustainable living and posterity foremost in our thoughts. We can start with a world-wide detente and a rebirth of (or reinvestment in) the United Nations.
We, all of us, need to give up war as acceptable under any circumstances and get all of humanity properly focused on those things that truly threaten our existence: global warming, pollution, greed, competition over cooperation and the corrosive affect that has on everything. Imagine turning around this world of selfishness, hatred and cruelty and making a gift to our descendents of a world where peace, loving kindness, acceptance and compassion can enhance everyone's existence, and provide dignity to all.
Imagine super computers, drones and all the other of our best leading-edge technology being used for good, decent, humane ends. Imagine all our considerable might aimed at the actual problems of the world. NASA is a tiny example of what could be done if we stopped wasting our powers on unnecessary wars and other unworthy goals and were free to do all the important things to the best of our ability - because they're important.
Imagine a strongly encrypted and free ultra high-speed global Internet impervious to attacks by malicious control freaks or random assholes or spying by surreptitious governments and other powers, ensuring privacy and actual democracy for all while providing an unprecedented capacity for collaboration across great distances between all nations and cultures, and including all people. This is unlike anything the world has ever seen. Humanity liberated, connected and empowered. Humanity in harmony. Imagine all of humanity's genius pulling together to make life not only possible but better for every one of us. It could be Bucky being right again.
Even though the trend toward a decentralized, web-based democracy seems clear, there's no guarantee that it will be a truly democratic and humanitarian hive mind, but it could be and it should be – we really need it to be. The tools are evolving that could make it happen. In theory, every node (person) on the net is equal. And coupled with non-trust based (because its not necessary) identity authentication based on bulletproof encryption, there could be nothing more democratic than that. We have a shot at it. There have been incidences of the hive mind defying peoples low expectations.
It turns out that many random humans are extremely decent, fair, kind and generous, much more so than say...congress or any other centralized power. Many people, not all of course, but many, have a principle or belief they hold dear along the lines of the Bantu concept of ubuntu. Among its connotations are, all of us make it or none of us do. Or, in other words, we're all in this together.
Now it may seem odd to launch into a discussion of ubuntu in the middle of an essay that is mostly about the future, science and technology, but only by getting our hearts right can we become the people the future requires. We need to harness that ancient impulse to compassion that is so common across cultures. We need to make peace.
We have to make all these things important again. We need finally to follow the advice of all our sages down through the centuries to cherish this life and take proper care of the earth and each other. If we don't finally learn this lesson it could lead in rather short order to the end of us. This is what I'm hoping we'll avoid. I love the idea of a future earth filled with just the right amount of humans, and hopefully healthy, happy ones living in balance and harmony whose lives are enhanced in wonderful ways by science and technology wielded by humans of good intent.
If we can just steer around the shoals, we may all soon be freer than we ever dared to dream.
I think people are going to do okay with this freedom stuff. Sure, it'll take some getting used to...right there at first...but we'll adjust.
It looks like actual straight out democracy enabled by strong encryption over a bulletproof Internet might not be such a bad thing. Might indeed be a huge step up. Imagine being able to vote for what you want, at any level in a direct and transparent manner – no need for voting rights protection, no gerrymandering, no corporate-owned voting machines, no disenfranchised citizens, no gaming the system, no need to trust anyone, no campaigns. No old school bullshit. Just an open smart contract (algorithm) that anyone can audit, and an equal vote for every human on the network. Government of, by and for the people...imagine that.
The people, in most places, are generally much more moral and thoughtful than their government. The day is coming where real democracy will be not only possible, but very likely our only option no matter who doesn't like it and no matter how any of us might feel about it. (Either that or the 1% enslaves us all with their robot army.)
I believe that we can make life sweet for future humanity, if we can become sufficiently determined to do so and if we can overcome the obvious obstacles. If we can bring ourselves to be wise enough, kind enough and peaceful enough as we make this massive paradigm shift, we can be guided by science and cooperation to a better place for everyone. Humanity working together to restore and heal the earth while increasing global human happiness could conceivably be just beyond the horizon. And it's certainly just what the doctor ordered. The alternative could be hell on earth. And haven't we had about enough of that?
We have to get our hearts right for a future where everyone is free and powerful.
We have to imagine the kind of future we want.
We are not going to be able to operate our Spaceship Earth successfully nor for much longer unless we see it as a whole spaceship and our fate as common. It has to be everybody or nobody.
R. Buckminster Fuller
We're all in this together.