New Jersey Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez
Leading Off:
• NJ-Sen: Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez has been under investigation for a while over allegations that he used his official position to aid a friend's business interests in exchange for gifts, and multiple media outlets reported on Friday that federal prosecutors will soon indict him. Menendez has continued to deny that he did anything wrong, and he used a Friday night press conference to declare that he's "not going anywhere."
Menendez isn't up for re-election until 2018, and it looks very unlikely that he'll be resigning anytime soon. Head over the fold for more.
As we recently saw with Republican Michael Grimm, politicians in trouble with the law often will resign from office as part of a plea deal, but they won't give up that valuable bargaining chip until they need to. It's not clear what the senator's legal strategy is: He may believe that he can still prevail in court, or he might want to keep his post until he secures a favorable deal.
So far, state Democrats appear to be standing behind Menendez. The Hudson County Democratic Organization, whose members are close to the senator, quickly made it clear that they support him, and it doesn't look like any local power brokers are trying to convince him to depart. The Garden State just went through a special Senate election in 2013 and while we might well see another one, it may not be for a while.
Still, speculation has begun over who might run if there is a special, and Roll Call provides us some names, all of whom are Democrats. Reps. Bill Pascrell and Donald Payne Jr. are potential statewide contenders (though at 78, Pascrell seems unlikely), as is freshman Rep. Donald Norcross, the brother of the very powerful party leader George Norcross. Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and state Senate President Stephen Sweeney had been planning to run for governor in 2017, but they could reverse course if there is a special. The New York Times also mentions former acting Gov. Dick Codey.
Former Rep. Rush Holt ran in 2013, and while his subsequent retirement indicates that he probably won't be back, he didn't exactly rule it out when asked. But don't expect to see fellow 2013 candidate Frank Pallone try again. Pallone recently became the ranking member on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, so he has a lot less incentive to leave the House than he did two years ago.
The GOP doesn't have a great bench in this state. Indeed, during the 2013 special, the Republicans couldn't get anyone better than the very conservative Steve Lonegan. Still, if Menendez did resign before January 2018, Republican Gov. Chris Christie would be able to appoint a temporary replacement. Last time, Christie only appointed a caretaker who didn't run in the special. However, if the governor picked someone who wanted to stay in the Senate, it could give the Republicans a better chance to hold on.
The New York Times great mentions state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (who lost to Menendez in an expensive 2006 race), state Sen. Joe Kyrillos (who lost to Menendez in a cheap 2012 race), state Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick, and Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. But this is all very hypothetical and we're going to need to see how Menendez's situation unfolds before we know if and when there will be a special election.
Senate:
• IN-Sen: Republican incumbent Dan Coats has been flirting with retirement for a while, and we won't need to wait too much longer for his decision. Coats tells the Indianapolis Star's Matthew Tully that he'll announce before April 5, the beginning of the Chicago Cubs' season. Unlike the Cubs, Coats would be heavily favored to win. However, while he says he loves his job, he acknowledges that it's very stressful and he may want to do something else. Should Coats call it quits, there are plenty of Republicans who could replace him, and Democrats would definitely eye this as a longshot pickup opportunity.
• MD-Sen, 04: It's been clear that we're in for a competitive Democratic primary ever since former Gov. Martin O'Malley declined to run for this open seat, and that's exactly what we're going to get. The Washington Post reports that Rep. Donna Edwards will kick off her campaign on Tuesday, pitting her against House colleague Chris Van Hollen. Edwards is a favorite of many progressive groups, and Democrats won't need to worry about holding her 78-21 Obama seat.
While Edwards' presence means that Van Hollen will need to fight for this seat, he did get some good news on Friday when he picked up the endorsement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. Reid's support could help Van Hollen with fundraising (though he's already strong in this department), though it certainly isn't going to clear the field. The congressman also unveiled the backing of Attorney General Brian Frosh and Montgomery County Executive Isiah Leggett on Friday.
There are a ton of other Democrats eying this seat. The ever-growing list of potential contenders got ever longer on Friday, with Baltimore Human Rights attorney Susan Burke expressing interest. The New York Times also reports that former NAACP head Ben Jealous is considering, though Jealous himself hasn't said anything. One name we can eliminate though is Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenet, who has said no to a bid.
Edwards' decision may cause one other potential Senate candidate to reconsider his plans though. Former Lt. Gov. and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown has been considering a run, but Politico quotes an unnamed source close to Brown saying that he'll likely defer to her. Plenty of Democrats were disappointed by Brown's campaign last year and won't be sorry to see him sit it out. There's no word what Brown will do instead, though Politico's source says "If Donna runs for Senate, maybe there are other opportunities for Anthony," which could hint at a House race. If Brown tries to succeed Edwards, he'll have a good shot. Brown hails from Prince George's County, which casts most of the primary vote, and he did well here in the 2014 gubernatorial primary.
Republicans know that they'll need a lot of luck to win in this blue state, but a few are considering. Rep. Andy Harris first expressed interest on Thursday and says he'll decide by "early summer." Roll Call noted that while GOP operatives expected Harris to talk about running, few of them think he'll actually give up his safely red House seat for a very uphill Senate campaign.
Former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino, who was the 2012 nominee here, hinted at a big announcement shortly after Mikulski retired, but he isn't kicking off another Senate bid this quickly. Bongino unveiled a new PAC instead, and says he hopes to decide on his plans by the summer. Bongino came close to winning the 6th Congressional District in 2014 and may run there again instead.
• OH-Sen: Buckeye State Democratic power players are hoping that Cincinnati Councilor P.G. Sittenfeld will exit the primary now that former Gov. Ted Strickland is in, and they're wasting little time circling the wagons around their favorite candidate. On Friday, Reps. Joyce Beatty, Marcia Fudge, and Tim Ryan endorsed Strickland. The move comes a day after the state party released a poll showing Strickland tied with Republican Sen. Rob Portman, while Sittenfeld badly trails.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Until now, former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner has largely had the airwaves to himself, but that's about to change. State Agricultural Commissioner James Comer, Heiner's main intra-party rival, recently announced that he'll be ramping up his advertising campaign and will stay on the air from now until the May 19 Republican primary. Comer has only aired one spot so far, but we should expect to see more from him before too long.
• OR-Gov, SoS: Friday was a big day for Oregon's new governor, Kate Brown. For starters, the state's new "motor voter" law passed the state Senate and heads to Brown's desk to be signed. This was a key focus for Brown when she was secretary of state; it will add up to 300,00 new voters to the state's registration roles, as it's a little more expansive than typical "motor voter" laws. People will be automatically registered to vote as part of the driver's license process, unless they opt out, which, combined with Oregon's vote-by-mail system, should further increase Oregon's near-top-of-the-nation turnout rates.
And second, she also appointed her successor to the now-vacant secretary of state post. In a surprise move, she appointed a long-time behind-the-scenes person who's never been elected to any post before: Jeanne Atkins, whose most recent job was Sen. Jeff Merkley's state director. Atkins quickly confirmed that she won't seek a full term in 2016, and the various legislators who'd been angling for the appointment can fight it out in the primary instead.
Brown could have made her own path in 2016 easier, though, by appointing one of her potential gubernatorial special election rivals to the job. For instance, she could have picked Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian for the position; instead, he might look for a promotion by challenging Brown in 2016. Since Atkins is an appointee, under Oregon law, she's not next in line of succession; instead, that role goes to Treasurer Ted Wheeler (another potential Brown primary rival in 2016).
House:
• LA-01: Rob Maness, the veteran who tea partied his way into a third-place finish in the 2014 Senate race, has made it clear for a while that he's not done with politics. While Maness hinted that he'd run for office again back in January, he didn't give much of an indication what his plans were, but he may now have a target in mind.
Maness has been taking pot shots at House Republican Whip Steve Scalise over his role in passing a clean bill to fund the Department of Homeland Security, arguing that he didn't "stand up to President Obama's amnesty agenda." While Maness defended Scalise back in December after news broke that the congressman once spoke at a white supremacist meeting, their temporary alliance is very clearly over. Maness hasn't said what he's going to do next, but he hasn't ruled out challenging Scalise in the jungle primary.
It's not going to be easy for Maness to pull off an upset. He trailed eventual Republican winner Bill Cassidy 47-17 during the Senate jungle primary, a worse margin than his 41-14 statewide deficit. Scalise also won't have any trouble bringing in money, while Maness struggled with fundraising last time around. Still, Maness would at least have the chance to make things interesting. Former KKK leader and ex-state Rep. David Duke also talked about challenging Scalise back in January, but his odds would be even steeper than Maness'. Romney won this suburban New Orleans seat 71-27, so it should stay in GOP hands no matter what.
• MD-06: Like every member of the Maryland House delegation whose name isn't Steny Hoyer, sophomore Democrat John Delaney is weighing a Senate bid. Delaney's seat was drawn to elect a Democrat, but at 55-43 Obama it's not out of reach for the GOP under the right circumstances.
On the Democratic side, former Del. John Donoghue told the Herald-Mail that he'll consider running if Delaney departs. Donoghue represented a Hagerstown seat for 24 years before losing in 2014, so it's not too surprising he's looking to get back into the game. Some of the many Democrats thinking of running in the nearly 8th District (see our MD-08 item) may also take a look at this seat instead, which includes a large part of Montgomery County. Far more primary votes are cast in Montgomery than in Hagerstown's Washington County, but if enough Montgomery candidates get in, a northern Maryland politician like Donoghue could have a better shot.
On the GOP side, 2014 nominee and former Secret Service Agent Dan Bongino is considering giving this another go, though he's also eying the Senate race. Bongino fell just 2 points short of beating Delaney last year in a race that almost no one had on their radar, though he can't count on another GOP wave boosting him. Del. Neil Parrott also indicated that other Republicans could run, and hinted that he might be one of them.
• MD-08: We've always been a huge fan of Roll Call's round-ups of potential candidates, and they really outdid themselves this time. Alexis Levinson takes a look at the many Democrats who might run to succeed Rep. Chris Van Hollen in this safely blue suburban D.C. seat, and has on-the-record quotes from most of them. As Levinson notes, some of these candidates may end up running for the nearby 6th District instead if Rep. John Delaney joins Van Hollen in the Senate race.
The vast majority of primary voters hail from Montgomery County, so it comes as no surprise that most possible contenders hail from there. Marriott International Executive Vice President Kathleen Matthews is already likely to run, though she hasn't made it official yet. Other politicians who have acknowledged that they're looking at the seat are state Sens. Rich Madaleno and Jamie Raskin; County Councilors Nancy Floreen, Nancy Navarro, and Hans Rieme; and Dels. Kumar Barve and Ariana Kelly. Additionally, while Del. Jeff Waldstreicher didn't directly address his plans, he told Levinson that "it's critical that we talk about economic justice, income inequality and the strength of our labor movement."
While former Del. Heather Mizeur has only publicly expressed interest in the Senate seat, she lives in the 8th. Mizeur impressed a lot of people during her 2014 gubernatorial campaign, and her name recognition and connections could go further in this race than they might in the Senate contest. Sources tell Roll Call that she is thinking about running here, and her former campaign manager acknowledged that she's "weighing all her options for 2016."
Del. Bill Frick (who ran for attorney general last year but dropped out before the primary), former County Councilor Valerie Ervin, and state Sen. Roger Manno all declined to say anything, but they're worth keeping an eye on. However, Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner and Montgomery County Councilman Roger Berliner have both ruled out runs.
• MI-10: Republican Rep. Candice Miller's retirement announcement caught most people by surprise, but it didn't take very long for her would-be successors to begin to express interest. On the GOP side, former state Rep. Pete Lund has drawn a good deal of attention, and he didn't rule out anything when asked about his plans. Lund has a reputation as a good fundraiser and is well-connected, and he'd likely emerge as a formidable contender if he gets in.
There are plenty of other Republicans who could run in this conservative seat. State Sen. Jack Brandenburg, who can self-fund a bid, said that he is "absolutely" considering. Shelby Township Clerk Stan Grot, who is also the chair of the 10th Congressional District GOP, also said that he's thinking about jumping in. Former state Rep. Leon Drolet also says he could go for it, but he acknowledged that as an openly gay man, he could face obstacles here.
Roll Call recently put together a thorough list of other possible Republican candidates, and we have a few more to add. The Detroit News great mentions Clinton Township Clerk Kim Meltzer and state Rep. Anthony Forlini, while the Macomb Daily names wealthy state Rep. Peter Lucido.
Romney won this seat, situation on the Thumb, by a healthy 55-44 margin, but there are a few Democrats who could run. It doesn't sound like Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel is going to be one of them though, with him telling the Detroit News "I'm not thinking about it this time." That's not quite a no, and his profile as head of the district's largest county is too good for Team Blue to ignore, but Hackel seems to have his eyes on the governorship instead. But we may not have heard the last from Miller herself: While she told the Macomb Daily that she probably won't run for governor, there's speculation that she could challenge Hackel for county executive.
• MS-01: Businessman Boyce Adams, one of the 40 trillion (give-or-take) Republicans running in the May 12 non-partisan primary, recently kicked off his ad campaign with a small $12,000 buy, and we now have a copy of his spot. Adams starts by praising the late Rep. Alan Nunnelee, and calling for someone who can continue to represent Mississippi's "conservative Republican principles." And wouldn't you know it, that someone just happens to be Adams!
• NC-02: The American Action Network, a PAC closely connected to Speaker John Boehner, recently shelled out $400,000 hitting three Republican incumbents for voting against Homeland Security funding. The group is going with the opposite approach for their second wave of spots, this time praising four members for their support. Susan Brooks, Todd Young, and Dan Benishek probably don't need much propping up, but Renee Ellmers can definitely use whatever help she can get. Ellmers only defeated an underfunded primary challenger 59-41 last year, and it looks like she can expect more trouble this cycle. The ads are running for a combined $350,000.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty