What once seemed like an easy win for Republican Gov. Mike Pence is looking a lot more unpredictable now
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Republican Gov. Mike Pence started the year with sky-high approval ratings and looked safe for re-election in conservative Indiana. But Pence set off a firestorm in late March when he signed a bill known as the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which could have allowed businesses to refuse to serve gay people. After an extraordinary firestorm fanned by corporations who were furious at the damage RFRA had done to the state's reputation, Pence and legislative Republicans eventually tweaked the most objectionable parts of the law. But almost overnight, the debacle left the governor looking genuinely vulnerable.
A couple of polls have been released since the RFRA controversy, and they show Pence in trouble. Most notably, a recent survey from Republican pollster Bellwether Research, conducted for local tipsheet Howey Politics, found Pence in the low 40s against a trio of potential Democratic opponents—not a great place for an incumbent to be.
Democrats weren't particularly optimistic about taking this seat just a month ago, but now Team Blue is looking closely at putting the governor's mansion back in play. Former state House Speaker John Gregg was actually considering a bid even before RFRA was drafted, and he sounds especially intent on running now. Gregg and Pence fought it out in 2012, and Pence won by a surprisingly close 50-47 margin.
But not all Hoosier Democrats are inclined to give Gregg another shot. Head below the fold for more.
Gregg proved to be a weak fundraiser last time, and his detractors think it cost him the win. Gregg also is quite conservative for a Democrat—he still opposes same-sex marriage—though he did speak out against RFRA. There are a few potential contenders who might be willing to offer themselves as alternatives to Gregg, but so far no one has made any moves. State House Minority Leader Scott Pelath is reportedly mulling a bid, and Gregg himself said that he thinks state Sen. Karen Tallian is considering (Tallian hasn't said anything publicly).
A few other Democrats could also jump in. Former Rep. Baron Hill was also talking about a gubernatorial bid before RFRA blew up, though he now seems more focused on the state's suddenly open Senate race (which we'll cover in a future post). Hill hails from Southern Indiana, an ancestrally blue region Democrats need to do well in to win statewide, though he lost his seat during the 2010 GOP wave. Wealthy architect Jim Schellinger, who narrowly lost the 2008 primary, also hasn't ruled anything out, though he doesn't sound incredibly interested.
Former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson has also been mentioned, though he's said nothing himself. Peterson lost his 2007 re-election campaign in a huge surprise, so he may not be the party's best-standard bearer in any case. Another mayor, Tom McDermott of Hammond (pop. 80,000), has been talked about for statewide office for a while, but he sounds ready to back Gregg.
Finally, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz also didn't rule anything out in February, though she's previously said she's running for re-election. Ritz won a big upset in 2012, but in a naked power grab, Pence and the state legislature want to strip Ritz of most of her duties as superintendent, relying on bogus claims of incompetence. (The real story: Ritz has opposed Republican education policy.) If Republicans are successful in undermining her, she may prefer to challenge Pence directly rather than seek another term for a post with diminished powers.
Pence may also need to dispatch a primary foe before he can move on to November. Bill Oesterle, a former campaign manager for ex-Gov. Mitch Daniels, has been talking about running. Oesterle is the outgoing CEO of review website Angie's List and he might be the perfect person to rally conservative business interests who were upset with Pence's actions: Oesterle canceled the company's planned $40 million expansion in Indianapolis over the RFRA imbroglio. But it's rarely easy to unseat an incumbent in a primary, and a recent poll finds Pence still popular with GOP voters. Things could get interesting if business groups decide they need to dump Pence before he jeopardizes their interests again, but otherwise, Pence should be safe in the primary.
Despite Pence's recent stumbles, beating him isn't going to be easy. While Hoosiers have split their ballots in recent presidential cycles, Indiana is still a red state. There's also no guarantee that voters will be angry over RFRA come November 2016: If there's one thing you can count on in American politics, it's short memories. But Pence's problems have opened the door for Democrats looking to win back the governor's mansion after three terms of Republicans, and we'll be watching how things unfold here at Daily Kos Elections.
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