If the voices of sanity and rationality, don't get out in front of this new deal, and weigh in with some "cautious optimism" -- then the voices of foreboding and acrimony, will squash this deal with Iran, before it ever has the chance to see the light of day.
One thing's for certain though, the oppressed voices of average Iranians (as described in the next article), are enthusiastically backing this first step, as their return to 'normalization' with the rest of the world -- economically speaking.
Iran nuclear deal changes the balance of power in the Middle East
by Paul Koring, The Globe and Mail -- WASHINGTON, Apr. 03 2015
[...]
In what may turn out to be the single most lasting foreign policy achievement of President Barack Obama’s eight years in the Oval Office: an historic rapprochement that is emerging between the Iranian theocracy, long regarded as the terrorist-sponsoring heavyweight in the “axis of evil,” and the “Great Satan,” as the Islamic regime has dubbed the United States.
Even without a final agreement, the framework of a pact has recalibrated the balance of power in the Middle East.
“We can co-operate with the world,” exulted Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was greeted by cheering throngs and motorists honking their horns on a triumphal return to Tehran from Geneva where the clock was repeatedly stopped to allow talks to continue beyond the original Mar. 31 deadline.
[...]
The Union of Concerned Scientists, perhaps the most dispassionate group capable of evaluating the draft framework, gave it cautious approval but that assessment was all by drowned out by the political clamour.
[...]
Indeed -- those are the last people pugilistic politicians want to listen to -- those dove-toting "scientists" -- without an agenda (except for perhaps, the steady advancement of Humanity.)
Afterall if they started listening to them -- who knows WHAT might happen ...
Well for those of us, WHO do lend credence to "dispassionate groups" beholden to the scientific method, here you go ...
The Union of Concerned Scientists -- ucsusa.org
Their headline story today is:
A First Look at the Iranian Nuclear Deal
by David Wright, physicist & co-director, Global Security -- April 3, 2015
[...]
U.S. goals
The main U.S. goals in the negotiations have therefore been (1) to place limits on Iran’s program that would stretch to a year the time it would need to make a bomb, and (2) to put in place strict inspection and transparency measures that would allow the international community to quickly detect any Iranian efforts to cheat on the accord.
The interim agreement seems to take important steps to address both goals. It significantly cuts the number of centrifuges Iran can operate to enrich uranium to many fewer than it has operating today, and limits them to Iran’s first-generation model. And Iran has apparently agreed not to build new facilities for uranium enrichment for 15 years.
The White House factsheet also says -- unfortunately without details -- that Iran will greatly reduce its existing stock of low-enriched uranium, cutting it from 10 tons to a third of a ton. This is important since by starting with uranium that has already been enriched to the level needed for a power reactor, Iran could enrich it to a level needed for a weapon much more rapidly than by starting with natural uranium. Just earlier this week, Iran seemed to indicate it was not willing to agree to such a reduction, so this provision was a welcome surprise—depending on exactly what it means, of course.
[...]
The White House factsheet also lists a number of inspection and transparency measures that can help provide confidence that Iran is abiding by the final deal. [...]
We will be looking forward to learning more details as the negotiations continue over the next few months. But this is an encouraging start.
David Wright is a physicist and the co-director of the Global Security Program. He is a nationally known expert on the technical aspects of missile defense systems, missile proliferation, and space weapons.
Those are some serious credentials. Perhaps the reflexive promoters of war -- should just
give 'science' a chance?
Afterall, what was it that President Reagan once said, that transfixed the world:
Trust, but Verify.
Well -- it kind of looks like this new normalization arrangement with Iran DOES JUST THAT.
It "verifies" in spades.
Inspections and Transparency
• The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.
• Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.
• Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
• Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance.
• All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
• A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve , on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of 3 certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology -- an additional transparency measure.
• Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
• Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country.
• Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities.
• Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.
[...]
--
Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program -- posted by whitehouse.gov
[Ed. Note: These Additional Protocol of the IAEA, as described in this State Dept link: "required access to other buildings at that site within a period as short as two hours, enabling them to detect undeclared activities."]
If serious verification, along with "cautious trusting," was once good enough for President Reagan, in his peace-fostering agreements with the "Evil Empire,"
-- then a similar type arrangement, ought to be good enough now, in our peace-fostering agreements with the nation, once branded an "Axis of Evil."
That is, if you think 'the steady advancement of Humanity' -- all of humanity -- is a long-term goal, worthy of our national ambitions.
Ronald Reagan, once did. And look how that effort turned out. (All-out War with the Soviet Union -- now Russia, was averted. Which in the long run, most think was a good thing.)