How the Republicans will win the 2016 Presidential Election.
There is a historical trend that favors the Republican Party’s Presidential candidate in 2016.
Since 1940 American voters have alternated backing 2 terms of each party, followed by 2 terms of the other party. This pattern has been followed despite deaths in office, civil rights, incompetence and demographics: Democrats in ’44 and ’48 (Roosevelt and Truman); Republicans in ’52 and ’56 (IKE); Democrats in ’60 and ’64 (JFK and Johnson); Republicans in ’68 and ’72 (Nixon); Democrat in 76 [the only exception was the election in 1980 that, according to the pattern should have been a Democratic victory]; Republicans in ’84 and ’88 (Reagan and Bush I); Democrats in ’92 and ’96 (Clinton); Republicans in ’00 and ’04 (Bush II); Democrats in ’08 and ’12 (Obama). Follow below the curlicue for more.
Every 8 years there is a “Turn Year”, where a substantial swing in popular vote (vs. 8 years prior vote) takes place. By this pattern, 2016 is a Republican Turn Year.
The nation is more politically polarized than any time in the last century, especially in presidential elections, as the political shifts caused by the Democratic Party’s push for Civil Rights have finally settled. As a result there are fewer and fewer swing states and more states that cannot be reasonably considered “in play”.
Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, it is a damn good guide.
The Democratic Party has won 6 strait presidential elections in states with 242 electoral votes, and 5 out of 6 in States with 16 more. That’s 258 out of 270. Of those, only NM, NH, Iowa and WI (26 votes) are being considered in play. None of the other democratic states are going to vote for a Republican candidate any time soon.
The Republican Party has won 6 strait presidential elections in states with 102 electoral votes, and 5 out of 6 in states with 55 more. Only one state there seems in play (NC). But that is not the whole story. The Republican Party has also won 4 out of 6 times in states with another 63 electoral votes, most of which are trending so strongly Republican that they seem out of reach absent a landslide. In fact, only VA could be termed in play in a Republican Turn Year (NC and VA - 28 votes)
Remaining are the targeted swing states for 2016: OH, NV, CO and FL, which together with NM, NH, IA, WI, VA and NC are where the election will be fought.
How much does the Turn Year move the general vote? From 1944 (and allocating 3rd party votes evenly), the median is about a 4-point swing from one party’s high to the next party’s high, and the average is 6 points. So the next democratic vote is projected at 48 or 46, with the Republican candidate getting 49 or 51. That’s the median swing and the average swing.
In a Republican Turn Year, NC will not be in play for the Democrats. That leaves Democrats needing to hold their “in Play” states of NM, NH, IA and WI, and win any of the swing states OH, FL or VA or both CO and NV. Those are the 9 states in which a close election will be decided.
Seems dire for the Republicans, so how do they win? First, if the Turn Year swing is the average 6 points, OH is a tie and FL falls into the Republican column. To insure OH, they nominate Kasich as VP and depend on him to carry his home state.
Republicans also focus on CO and NV. Both were 9-point Democratic victories 8 years ago, but Republicans cut that down to about 5 in 2012. Can the Democrats win CO and NV? Both are possible, but both have gone Republican every Republican Turn Year (and prior to 92 both were solid Republican).
But, even if both CO and NV go Democratic, if Republicans take any of the Democratic in play states of IA, NM or WI, they still can win. How do the Republicans take a Democratic state? They nominate Walker of WI. He has won 3 elections there, and Republicans would count on him as nominee to carry his home state. With WI, OH and FL voting Republican, it all comes down to VA.
VA has turned Democratic lately but was Republican for decades. Can the Republicans win VA in a Turn Year? If the Turn Year swing is 4, they will be close, if it is 6 they will be tied.
So, if the Republican ticket is Walker and someone to appeal to Northern VA independents, e.g. Kasich, they can concentrate on VA and a Republican win is possible or even likely. However, if they nominate anyone else, they will likely lose WI, OH and the election.
One last point, if the Republicans take WI but lose VA, one chance is left. If they take either IA or NV (it is possible), then election will be a tie (nightmare).
There are other factors besides historical swings that will effect voting next year. Demographic factors include increases in non-white vote and polarization between urban and rural voters. Political factors include an increase in voter suppression laws and unlimited outside spending. Politicians do, in fact, matter. If the democrats nominate an older white women, identity political analysis says she will do better among older white female voters than the young black man Democrats ran 8 years ago. This would cut into the Republican lead in that demographic. If the Republicans run a ticket with a Hispanic politician, identity political analysis shows that they would do better among Hispanics than they did 8 years ago.
All of those factors matter. But it would be incorrect to ignore the historical trends in projecting the 2016 election.