Not in the sense that he is the Hope and Change candidate. Or that he has any clue how to govern the country. But Trump, not Bernie Sanders, is the outsider who has shaken up the Presidential field in 2015. He energizes the base of the GOP the same way Obama energized us in 2007. This is why Trump is to be taken seriously as a politician. He may not win the Presidency. He may not even become the GOP nominee. But to underestimate him is a mistake. The same mistake the Clintons made about Senator Obama in 2007.
The GOP base consists of losers who pretend to themselves that they are winners. An asshole Billionaire appeals to them the way a brilliant Harvard educated community worker appeals to the Democratic base. Trump represents their ideal: a loud mouthed rich guy who insults heroes and screams at women. He says things they all think, but can't articulate. Just as Obama voiced our discontent with the Iraq war.
I don't oppose all wars.[..] What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war.
You thought that. But admit it: you couldn't have said it so brilliantly.
In the same way, Trump actually says things every GOP base voter thinks:
If Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps I’d be dating her.
Rosie O'Donnell is disgusting — both inside and out. If you take a look at her, she's a slob. How does she even get on television?
(McCain’s) a war hero because he got captured. I like people who weren’t captured.
So what should we do about Trump?
Treat him as the GOP front runner, which is what he is. He is a buffoon. Everything he says is ridiculous. So laugh at him. But organize against him at the same time. He is a joke. Do not dismiss him as just a joke. There is a dangerous sliver of truthiness in what he says. Not truth as in what is correct factually or objectively. That is not what matters in politics. It does matter what a large enough block of voters believe is true. Truthiness, in other words.
In earlier era Reagan tapped into this neanderthal vein of Republicanism. He said in 1981:
Trees cause more pollution than automobiles do.
Total rubbish. But Republicans applauded. Reagan himself explained why this works:
Facts are stupid things.
Laugh at it. But know that it helped him get elected as President.
To win an election, you don't need to be factually accurate. You need to know what to say to get people excited about you and turn up to vote for you. Reagan knew that. He was one of the smartest people ever to be elected to the Presidency. He masked his brilliance with idiotic statements like these. So Democrats thought he was just a stupid actor.
At the same time, Reagan was a pioneer in the use of statistical analysis in political strategy. Richard Wirthlin was an economist at BYU who worked since 1968 a statistician for Reagan, analyzing polling data. Many of Reagan's political positions were arrived at by cold political calculation based on polling; for example, his opposition to the Panama Treaty, which put President Ford on the defensive.
Trump is a similarly canny operator. While exaggerating his wealth, (probably closer to $4B, not the $10B he claims) he is careful not to spend any money of his own in the campaign. The same morons who cheer him on will send him their hard earned money to support his run.
Trump cannot lose this campaign. If he becomes President, in his mind he gets even more pussy and gets to fly in an even bigger jet. If he doesn't become President, he has just enhanced his brand and name recognition at zero expense.
This frees Trump. Politics is the only game in which setting the rules of the game is part of the game. So if you can change the rules, rewrite them to your advantage, you can go quite far. This is exactly what Trump has done. He can say and do things that no other politician can.
Trump will probably still lose. Does he have the ability to look at data and form the right political strategy? Can he organize a GOTV operation? Will his people show up at caucuses? There is no evidence yet that he can do any of this. Reagan honed his skills as Governor of the largest state before running for President. Trump played himself on a TV show. So he knows how to get attention. That is only half the game.
But let us take him seriously. Whether it is Bernie or Hillary, there is a real possibility that Trump will be their main opponent in 2016. I expect that Trump won't become President, or even the GOP nominee. But he might push the Republican candidate to the number three position in 2016, if he decides to run as an independent.
Why not ask Trump, as leader of the GOP pack, to a debate with Sanders and Clinton? It would be outside the current rules of politics. But it would marginalize the other, supposedly serious, GOP candidates. And give him an opportunity to make an ass of himself in front of an even bigger audience. Give him rope. Let him hang himself. And as a bonus, sideline the GOP machine.