Past Diaries in this series:
Michigan (13)
Ohio (15)
Pennsylvania (17)
Illinois (17)
Alabama (6) and Minnesota (7)
North Carolina (14)
The Centenntial State is expected to grow to 8 districts in 2020, at least by current estimates. In 2010, Colorado Democrats spectacularly resisted the red wave, with Gov. Hickenlooper and Senate Democrats holding on, but sadly still lost the state House of Representatives, meaning it went to the courts. The state courts picked the Democratic map, but we drew a tame map in order to secure that very outcome.
Hopefully we can gain the trifecta in 2020 and can draw a map of our own choosing, maybe something similar to what I've drawn here.
Here's the current map
Statewide
The Dem/Rep Average contains "All 2010 Statewide races" according to DRA which would include:
- Governor (51-49 Democratic win assuming you count Tom Tancredo and Dan Maes together)
- Attorney General (56-44 Republican)
- Secretary of State (50-44 Republican)
- Treasurer (50.7-49.3 Republican)
- University of Colorado Regent at-large(?) (50.5-44 Republican)
District 3 Purple
Voting-age Population Demographics (VAP): 68.6 White, 24.1 Hispanic
2008: 57 Obama
Avg: 52.8 Dem
Incumbent Scott Tipton (R-Cortez) lives here. Southwest, based in Aspen, Pueblo and parts of Colorado Springs. 8 points more Democratic that the current 3rd (by 2008 #s), this would be prime pickup opportunity for Dems, maybe even a rematch for John Salazar, if he wanted to. Lean D
District 4 Red
VAP: 85.7 W, 9.7 H
2008: 61.7 McCain
Avg: 67.0 Rep
Open seat. Based in Douglas County (Denver suburbs) and Grand Junction. One of two Republican vote sinks. This contains a lot of Scott Tipton's current territory, so maybe he could choose to run here. Safe R
District 5 Yellow
VAP: 79.2 W, 11.9 H
2008: 63.3
Avg: 68.9 Rep
Incumbent Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) might live here, but would run here regardless. Southeast, based in Colorado Springs. The other Republican vote sink. Safe R
Greater Denver
District 1 Blue
VAP: 47.5 W, 7.4 Black, 40.7 H
2008: 60.9 Obama
Avg: 55.0 Dem
Incumbent Ken Buck (R-Greeley) lives here. Morgan, Weld, Adams and Denver Counties, The most destructive parochial concern to Democrats' long-term prospects in Colorado congressional politics, in my mind, is the mandate that Denver County be kept whole. So in my map I have split it three ways. This one is built for a Hispanic representative, as this district will continue to get browner in the future (currently 46.5-41.6 Hipsanic plurality by total pop.). Safe D, Hispanic opportunity
District 2 Green
VAP: 84.5 W, 9.7 H
2008: 62.9 Obama
Avg: 57.5 Dem
Incumbent Jared Polis (D-Boulder) lives here. Boulder, Larimer and part of Broomfield. This district actually gets bluer from the current configuration. Safe D
District 6 Cyan
VAP: 66.9 W, 10.6 B, 14.5 H, 5.5 Asian
2008: 60.2 Obama
Avg: 54.3 Dem
Incumbents Diana DeGette (D-Denver) and Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) both live here. Arapahoe County and Denver. 7 points bluer than the current 6th CD, if we don't unseat Coffman next year we could just let DeGette take it over! Safe D
District 7 Black
VAP: 81.1 W, 12.7 H
2008: 60.2 Obama
Avg: 54.4 Dem
Open seat. Ski Counties, Jefferson, Arapahoe and Denver. Safe D
District 8 Lime
VAP: 75.6 W, 18.1 H
2008: 54.5 Obama
Avg: 52.1 Rep
Incumbent Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden) lives here. Adams, Broomfield, Jefferson and Weld Counties. This was originally drawn to be a tossup, not knowing where Perlmutter lived and assuming he'd run in the 7th. But Perlmutter is uniquely talented in his current district, and I think it's likely he'd be able to hold on in this slightly redder district as well. Likely D
.
.
.
.
.
So from a current 3-4 Republican map to a potential 6-2! I'd like to see that.
As always, thoughts and feedback are welcomed, as long as you tip and rec ;)