As a political scientist, I should know better than to predict an election well over a year in advance, but this year it is clear that Bernie Sanders will be our next president. Based on a recent national Quinnipiac poll and other evidence, Bernie has a lot going for him. For someone who was unknown three months ago (when he announced his candidacy), he is already equal to a former first lady and secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and a sitting vice president, Joe Biden, in matchups with the top Republican candidate. When asked who they would vote for if the election were to be held today, Sanders, Clinton, and Biden had, respectively, 44, 45, and 48 percent of the vote compared with 40 percent for Trump. Furthermore, Clinton is seen unfavorably by 51 percent of the voters while her favorability is only 39 percent. Sanders has just begun campaigning and is unknown by 39 percent of the voters yet is looked on favorability by 32 percent of the voters. This favorability is bound to increase as the campaign goes on. And Hillary Clinton's negatives keep growing. When respondents were asked in the Quinnipiac poll "what is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Hillary Clinton?" hundreds replied: liar, dishonest and untrustworthy.
Sanders has a number of things going for him. He has a large, enthusiastic following as evidenced by the overflow crowds he draws in all parts of the country and the over 100,000 supporters who gathered in 3,500 living rooms all over the country on July 29. He is drawing more financial support in small contributions than Obama did in 2008, and has built a war chest of well over $15 million without PACs. This is certainly not close to the war chest of Clinton, but it is enough to pay for a staff, and you don't need to do a lot of TV ads if you have millions of enthusiastic supporters spreading the word through social media. But most of all, Sanders is carrying a clear and firm message that resonates with people who cannot get ahead when a wealthy few have taken control of economic and political power.
I might add that you need not worry about Trump. His peek support will never reach even 30 percent. His negatives in the Quinnipiac poll are monumental—54 percent unfavorable and only 36 percent favorable. And "arrogant", "blowhard", "idiot", "clown", "egotistical", "crazy", "asshole" are the words that come to mind when respondents are asked about Trump.