I realize in the middle of the Primaries, it's easy to forget some of the blocking and tackling of the Governing process but in about a week and a half we will probably see
another Government shutdown. A big one..
Stan Collender writing for Politico places the odds at 75%.
http://www.politico.com/...
ve been predicting since July that the irreconcilable differences between Democrats and Republicans on several key issues — only some of which have anything to do with the budget — are much more likely than not to lead to the federal government shutting down when the next fiscal year begins at midnight, Sept. 30. My most recent projection is that there is now a 75 percent chance of a shutdown
Read more: http://www.politico.com/...
So that means lots of civilians furloughed, lots of contractors furloughed.
Military not getting paid.
More below
1) We've got 9 days to get it fixed. The fiscal year ends soon.
2) The congress has 5 days to actually do all the work. Of that 5, one is never a real day.
3) No Approps bills have passed. 16 bills need to pass the house and senate. The house can run a freight train when it wants to. The senate,well one grandstanding idiot, and it's a month. Given Cruz, Rubio, Paul, Graham are all on the trail, all it takes is one of them
needing to get some free press by fillibustering, and well, that could really screw the pooch.
4) There is a massive fight going on over Planned Parenthood. The GOP conservative bench wants to go to the mattresses, figuring Obama will cave....
5) The Dems want to lift sequester on domestic spending. The GOP wants to lift it only on Defense. If the Dems let the Defense bill pass they lose leverage. If the GOP concedes on a domestic bill, they lose leverage.
6) THe GOP is convinced that after the last shutdown they won seats so they can win more after this one too. So they figure that a shutdown will help them gain intensity.
7) McConnell and Boehner are weak leaders. McConnell can't control his back bench
and if his future presidents can't take a vote on the approps bills well, mcConnell can't move a bill he wants, and he won't let a bill move he doesn't control.
8) Boehner has 40 rabble rousers in the back bench,,, Enough to drive any man to drink.
That puts Senate and House Republicans directly at odds. McConnell likely can’t get the Senate to adopt a CR that stops funding for Planned Parenthood while Boehner can’t get the House to adopt one that allows it to continue.
That means the speaker and majority leader might have to do what Boehner has done in past budget fights: work with Democrats to get the votes needed to move ahead. But House and Senate Democrats already have indicated that their votes won’t come cheap. Their demands could include all of the budget items Republicans don’t want, such as more funding for domestic as well as military programs, continued funding for Planned Parenthood and funding for the implementation of the agreement with Iran. They might also want something more, such as an agreement to begin the budget negotiations the White House has been requesting.
This total capitulation to Democratic demands will be very hard for House and Senate Republicans to stomach. It could cost Boehner his job as speaker and threaten McConnell’s authority as majority leader. It also is not at all clear that House Republicans or the four GOP senators running for president view a government shutdown as an event to be feared politically or that they are worried about being blamed should one occur.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/...
The right wing crazy press wants a shutdown
http://www.breitbart.com/...
Ayotte, Cornyn, Graham, McConnell, and Boehner are right that Republicans will never receive 67 Senate votes to overcome a presidential veto. But they are wrong that a government shutdown would somehow cripple the Republican Party, or that President Obama would allow the government to remain shut down indefinitely over Planned Parenthood. Republicans will not pay a heavy political price for a government shutdown. The evidence simply isn’t there.
,,,,
According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll taken right after the shutdown, 53 percent of Americans blamed Republicans for the shutdown, and just 29 percent blamed President Obama – but during and after the shutdown, Obama’s approval ratings dropped from 45 percent to a low of 40 percent. In the end, the shutdown didn’t damage Republicans at all: Republicans won a landslide congressional victory in 2014. If President Obama cares at all about his successor (dubious), he could be pressured to end a shutdown before blowback hit other Democrats.
That’s typically the pattern. In 1995, the government shut down when Newt Gingrich refused permission to President Clinton to pursue excessive spending. Gingrich felt the brunt of the blame, but Clinton got hit too, with his approval ratings dropping nearly double digits during the shutdown. Then-Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-KS) stopped the shutdown because he wanted to run for president. The result: Dole, the great hero who stopped the shutdown, got clocked in 1996, but Republicans maintained their congressional majority in that same election, and President Clinton quickly moved to the center to govern as a moderate Democrat in his second term.
well, maybe wall street will get sick of this nonsense.