So yeah, that happened—John Boehner's resigning. He's the first speaker of the House to depart mid-term since Newt Gingrich successfully stoked the book-buying "scandal" that forced out Democrat Jim Wright in 1989, and the first ever, we believe, to quit mid-term for no reason other than to work on his golf game. While about 85 percent of the commentary so far has been just "holy #*$%!," and most of the balance has focused on what will happen in the ranks of the House GOP leadership, there's a tiny sliver of folks interested in the electoral ramifications of Boehner's arrivederci maneuver. If you are, too, then you're one of us.
Unfortunately for special election fans, Boehner's congressional district—Ohio's 8th, tucked into the southwestern corner of the state along the border with Indiana, just north of Cincinnati—is safely Republican, having gone for Mitt Romney by a 62-36 margin in 2012. But that means we could see a competitive, perhaps even explosive, intra-GOP battle to succeed The Great Orange One. Indeed, according to Roll Call's Emily Cahn, that primary would likely coincide with next year's presidential primary, so turnout should be a lot higher than usual.
Cahn (one of the best Great Mentioners in the business) also suggests a bunch of potential candidates: state Senate President Keith Faber (OH); state Sens. Bill Coley (OH), Chris Widener (WA), and Bill Beagle (OH); former state Sen. Gary Cates; and Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones. USA Today's Gregory Korte cites unspecified "buzz" that Faber could "inherit" Boehner's seat, and it's certainly possible the establishment could rally around a single candidate and freeze out any insurgents (as we recently saw in IL-18). That would be quite the ironic legacy for a guy who was ground down so bitterly by angry outsiders.
Speaking of pissed-off people, Nathan Gonzales adds one interesting name to the pile, ex-Rep. Steve Austria. Austria was a member of the class of 2008 who found himself without a chair when the music stopped following redistricting: Boehner, in fact, deliberately sacrificed Austria's seat to create a Democratic vote sink in Columbus, thereby protecting the rest of Ohio's Republican delegation. If Austria's still smarting, he'd have an avenue to try to seek redemption, since about 19 percent of Boehner's seat was carved out of Austria's old district.
So far no one's offered any comments on the record—everyone's probably still in shock at the news. But democracy marches forward, with or without John Boehner!